After Karabakh: Why peace in Azerbaijan could unsettle larger Russian sphere
When Azerbaijani forces, in a lightning assault, overwhelmed the self-declared Armenian-populated republic of Nagorno Karabakh late last month, forcing it to legally dissolve itself and most of its population to flee to nearby Armenia, it may have brought some peace to the long-troubled south Caucasus.
But observers warn the abrupt end to the seemingly intractable conflict may have also sown the seeds of future conflicts.
It comes at the cost of erasing the Armenian population of Karabakh from their ancestral homeland – if mostly bloodlessly. And it represents an unambiguous triumph of military force over diplomacy that will likely encourage hawks across Russia’s sphere of influence, from Moldova to the Caucasus.
The most immediate effects are likely to be the realignment of the Southern Caucasus,
