The European economy declined by 6.1 per cent in 20201 and, while recovery is on the way, many economists and institutions do not expect a full recovery before the end of 2023, and that is without taking into consideration the possibility of the appearance of virus variants.2,3,4,5,6,7,8
Machiavelli, however, recommended never to waste the opportunities created by a good crisisI.
But where can we find opportunities amid the present (COVID) and any future crisis? The answer requires us to address three questions.
1 First: since the only new is the past that one ignores (H. Truman), were there resilient businesses during the last major (subprime) crisis?9,10,11
2 Second: if so, can one find general explanations for those booming activities unrelated and thus independent of the specific cause of a given crisis (be it massive loan defaults or a pandemic)?
3 Third: and finally, does the existent data for the 2020 COVID year confirm the same opportunities of the subprime crisis period (the years 2008 to 2014)?
If so, that would be another example showing that (as Peter Drucker, founder of modern management, said) behind any risk there is an opportunity – activities which grow, not just in spite of, but even because of recessions.
TYPES OF RESILIENT BUSINESSES
During the subprime crisis (the years 2008-2014) there were indeed two types of resilient businesses. Some kept on growing, while others even accelerated their growth compared to the pre-crisis period (the years 2000 to 2007II).
And that applies to industries whether they were consumer goods, industrial products or services (and there are 88 industries in the economyIII), or to segments, that
