What if AI could rebuild the middle class?

We are witnessing a technological revolution unfolding in real time. The rise of smart machines opens up some scary possibilities; for our economy, for our democracy, even, in the most catastrophic scenarios, for our continued existence as a species. But, if we get our act together, the age of Artificial Intelligence could be one in which we rebuild the middle class, says MIT's David Autor, one of the top labor economists in the world.

Autor sees a potential future where we harness the power of AI to create a whole bunch of good jobs for people who have been left behind over the last few decades. Even in this cheery scenario, AI will profoundly disrupt the job market. But, Autor says, with concerted efforts and smart policies, we can bring the dream of a more prosperous and more equal economy into reality.

For the last four decades, technology has been mostly a force for greater inequality. Since the 1990s, Autor and his colleagues have uncovered a mountain of evidence about this. Autor calls it "job polarization." Basically, computers have been great for the jobs of high-income, college-educated workers, but not so great for the jobs of everyone else. Autor's research suggests that computers killed a range of jobs in manufacturing and offices that once provided solid opportunities to Americans without a college degree.

But new empirical evidence suggests that the age of AI could be different. It poses the possibility that, instead of highly skilled and college-educated workers reaping most of the benefits from the assistance of smart machines, it could be the less skilled and non-college-educated who get the biggest boost. Autor is hopeful that, with the right policies to prepare and assist Americans to succeed in this new AI economy, we could make a wider array of workers much better at a whole range of jobs, lowering barriers to entry and creating new opportunities.

"Let's use AI to reinstate the