Philippines should stay neutral or risk being 'crushed' amid US-China tensions, experts warn

The Philippines should remain neutral or run the risk of being "crushed" by the ongoing Sino-US rivalry, experts have said, while urging Manila to work with Beijing to manage tensions in the South China Sea.

During a three-hour media forum on Monday convened by the Manila-based Integrated Development Studies Institute (IDSI) with the backing of other think tanks such as the South China Sea Probing Initiative (SCSPI), five international relations experts spoke on managing China-Philippine relations in the light of the "great power conflict" between Beijing and Washington.

"If there is a superpower that is in decline and that is the United States, and another great power that is in ascendance which is China, then it is almost inevitable for ... the superpower to suppress the ascendant great power," said Dr Melissa Loja, a Filipino international maritime law expert, during the panel discussion held in Makati City in Metro Manila.

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"And therefore, for the Philippines to stand in the way of either the US or China, then there is a sure chance that the Philippines [will] be crushed in the process."

Loja, a senior research fellow at the IDSI, called for the Philippines to "maintain its neutrality" to avoid such a fate.

Professor Hu Bo, director of the SCSPI and the Centrer for Maritime Strategy Studies of Peking University, noted part of the US-China conflict was playing out in the South China Sea.

If a littoral state like the Philippines, which was "not a direct party" to this conflict, took sides, then tensions in the South China Sea would escalate, Hu said during the discussion.

Manila on Monday identified four additional bases the US would have access to under the Enhanced Defence Cooperation Agreement aimed at boosting military ties between the countries.

Loja noted that the development would mean "a diminution of the status of neutrality of the Philippines in case of declared or undeclared war between the US and any country, not just China but also North Korea [and] Russia".

Despite this, the experts agreed that it was important for Manila and Beijing to work together to "manage" tensions over disputed territory in the South China Sea, through which nearly 40 per cent of global goods are shipped.

Dr Lei Xiaolu, a vice-director at SCSPI, noted that both countries had widely divergent opinions and assertions on their respective maritime entitlements in the disputed sea, and that such concerns "will not be resolved in the very near future".

"This problem has never been faced by other regions," she added.

Bilateral ties were still "overall predominantly warm and cordial", noted Dr Yan Yan, another SCSPI vice-director, saying both China and the Philippines were dedicated to "managing the crisis" using methods such as boosting cooperation between law enforcement agencies and negotiating an oil and gas exploration and cooperation agreement.

She noted that President Ferdinand Marcos Jnr had raised the maritime issue with his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping during a visit to Beijing in January.

"The purpose was to settle these problems in a friendly manner and to seek to resolve this issue to the mutual benefit of the two countries," Yan said.

"Despite the South China Sea dispute, relations between China and the Philippines have always grown considerably strong during the past five years," Yan added, pointing to "at least 40 cooperation programmes going on in Manila", including the construction of the Kaliwa dam in the northern Philippines.

After Manila, the four experts from China will head to Kuala Lumpur, Jakarta and Singapore to take part in similar forums.

This article originally appeared on the South China Morning Post (SCMP).

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