The Philippines' ties with Australia are 'stronger than ever'. Is it a sign it has West's backing in South China Sea?

In stark contrast to his predecessor Rodrigo Duterte's no-show at the last Asean-Australia Special Summit in 2018, Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jnr's cosy ties with Canberra were on full display at this year's meeting, in what observers have described as a signal from Manila that it has the backing of the West.

Given the Philippines' attempts to forge stronger security and defence cooperation with other Asian allies, particularly India and Japan, a trilateral deal between the three nations might also be a distinct possibility in future, the analysts added.

In a speech on Monday in Melbourne, Marcos Jnr delicately balanced his opposition towards Chinese aggression in the South China Sea by saying that it was necessary for the Philippines to work and negotiate with Beijing, while also firmly expressing Manila's rejection of Cold War-style geopolitics stemming from the US-China rivalry.

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Just days earlier, the Philippine president had made a historic address to the Australian parliament, proclaiming his country would not cede "one square inch" of its territory and would defend its sovereignty amid Beijing's aggression in the South China Sea.

It was in this context that Marcos Jnr explained why the strategic partnership between the Philippines and Australia had "grown more important than ever".

"From the very beginning, we knew that our interests were intertwined," he said, referencing previous wars Filipino and Australian forces were involved in. "We have long known that our prosperity and development are anchored in the peace and stability of the Indo-Pacific.

"Today, that peace, that stability and our continued success have come under threat. Once again, we must come together as partners to face the common challenges confronting the region," he said. "Not one single country can do this by itself, no single force can attend, counter them, by themselves."

Marcos Jnr's comments were symbolic, said Bjorn Dressel, director of the Australian National University's ANU Philippines Institute.

"This is meant to clearly indicate to Asean member states and to the region that the Australia-Philippine strategic partnership is alive and well, and stronger than it has ever been," he said, referring to the 10-member Association of Southeast Asian Nations.

Dressel said Marcos Jnr's words also sent a subtle message to China that the Philippines had military and security support from the West if it needed it.

Alongside collaboration on military patrols, he said the Philippines also valued having other countries such as Australia and the US step up to fend off unacceptable acts of aggression in the South China Sea.

"For international law to be respected, you rely on other state actors to lend you support whenever there is a violation," Dressel said.

Beijing and Manila have for months been locked in an increasingly tense face-off in the disputed sea, with China deploying coastguard ships and other non-military vessels to try and force Philippine boats off contested areas.

In November, Australia began joint patrols with the Philippines in the disputed waterway for the first time.

Andrea Chloe Wong, a research fellow at the Institute for Indo-Pacific Affairs in New Zealand, said Marcos Jnr had signalled that Canberra was a special partner, but was careful to state that the Philippines would not cooperate with one country at the expense of another.

Asia-based academic Richard Heydarian said it was clear Marcos Jnr was serious about growing a strategic relationship with Australia, especially given the lull in their ties over recent years.

However, Marcos Jnr risked overinvesting in the relationship by trying to rally for international support in the South China Sea, when others such as Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim were more reticent in calling out China, said Heydarian, who is the professorial geopolitics chairholder at the Polytechnic University of the Philippines.

Under Duterte's administration, Manila pivoted to Beijing and was sceptical about greater US and Australian support, even questioning their resolve about countering China.

Duterte also criticised Australia for meddling in Filipino affairs by condemning his anti-drug campaign that led to more than 6,000 extrajudicial killings.

After talks with Prime Minister Anthony Albanese in Melbourne on Monday, Malaysia's Anwar warned Australia and the US not to drag Southeast Asia into their grievances with China, as he reiterated his criticism of growing "China-phobia" in the West.

He pointed out that Malaysia remained "fiercely independent" even as the region found itself under increasing pressure to pick sides between China and the US.

"If they have problems with China, they should not impose it upon us," Anwar said. "We do not have a problem with China."

Don McLain Gill, an international-studies lecturer at De La Salle University in the Philippines, said Manila's "robust" foreign policy of deepening and broadening its security ties, with partners in the region and beyond, was aimed at strengthening its maritime security and defence capabilities.

"[It's] also to ensure that the South China Sea remains open and rules-based." Such a position would "inevitably upset China", Gill said, and raise concerns among other Southeast Asian nations that are ambivalent about external powers' growing military presence.

"However, it must be understood that even if Manila's position was not as robust as it is now, China would continue to pursue its narrowly driven security interests in the region," he said. "Thus, Manila has realised the need to become more proactive in seeking options to address this challenge."

Jagannath Panda, head of the Stockholm Centre for South Asian and Indo-Pacific Affairs, said that amid Manila's naval skirmishes with Beijing in the South China Sea, its strategic ties with Canberra helped the Philippines strengthen its contacts with Australia's other Western allies.

"Solidifying strategic contacts with Australia does help Manila to gather and share enough timely information on China's maritime activities," Panda said.

Noting that the Philippines was one of the few countries that shared a close equilibrium with the US-led security architecture in Southeast Asia, Panda added that after the Permanent Court of Arbitration verdict in 2016, Manila had been exploring opportunities to strengthen strategic ties with "like-minded countries".

"Japan, Australia and India figure highly in the Philippines' maritime security strategy," Panda said, especially in maritime security and deterrence against Chinese maritime advance.

The 2016 verdict refers to the Hague-based court, which ruled in favour of the Philippines and determined that major elements of Beijing's claim - including land reclamation activities in the South China Sea - were unlawful.

"A strategic complementarity has been building between India, Japan, and the Philippines for some time now," Panda said, adding that the nations also shared a posture of "revisionism resistance" vis-a-vis China's attempts to change the status quo.

The Philippines said in January that it hoped to sign an agreement with Japan by March allowing the deployment of military forces on each other's soil.

During a visit to Manila in November, Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida said Tokyo would help improve the Philippines' maritime law enforcement capability through the provision of patrol vessels and defence equipment, including a coastal radar surveillance system.

The Philippines and India are also looking to step up defence ties after Philippine foreign minister Enrique Manalo visited last year.

As well as upgrading interactions among defence officials, they plan to open a resident defence attache office in Manila and expand joint maritime training and exercises.

"These three non-Western countries have been quite vocal against China, questioning the authoritarian revisionist practices China is pursuing in both the land corridors and maritime corridors," Panda said.

"Though a formal strategic trilateral between India-Japan-Philippines is yet to be established, such a trilateral is very much a practical proposition."

Stephen Nagy, a professor of politics and international studies at Tokyo's International Christian University, said so-called minilateral security cooperation was growing among partners in the region, in case of an incident in the South China Sea or Taiwan.

"The evolution of these partnerships will be fuelled by Chinese behaviour. A more conciliatory Beijing will see less cooperation between various countries, [while] a more assertive Beijing will push these countries together," he said.

This article originally appeared on the South China Morning Post (SCMP).

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