Philippines' U-turn on South China Sea code of conduct a sign tensions remain stumbling block to progress

The Philippines' affirmation of a code of conduct (COC) between China and Southeast Asian countries is a likely sign that earlier efforts by Manila at forging a "mini" pact may not be working, analysts say, as tensions could deter regional neighbours from "openly welcoming" its overtures.

If Manila goes ahead and files charges against Chinese fishermen over the alleged use of cyanide to damage the Scarborough Shoal, it would be an attempt by the Philippines to resort to legal options to promote its maritime interests, observers added.

Earlier this month, Philippine Foreign Secretary Enrique Manalo said Manila was firmly committed to negotiations on a code of conduct between China and Southeast Asian countries to avert confrontations in the South China Sea.

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He added that tensions in the disputed waterway were not all about a rivalry between superpowers the United States and China, and the Philippines and others had legitimate rights and interests to uphold.

This contrasted with remarks by Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jnr in November last year that Manila had approached neighbours such as Malaysia and Vietnam to discuss a separate code of conduct, citing limited progress towards striking a broader regional pact with China.

China and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (Asean) have been working on a South China Sea COC for more than two decades, but progress has been slow despite commitments by all parties to accelerate the process.

Lucio Blanco Pitlo III, a research fellow at the Asia-Pacific Pathways to Progress Foundation, said the increasingly strained ties between China and the Philippines, as a result of rising maritime tensions, were likely to deter other claimants from "openly welcoming Manila's overtures".

There is also the worry that excluding China - the sea's biggest claimant - from the discussion could "further complicate efforts to conclude a regional code of conduct", Pitlo said.

"This may help account for the reception to Manila's proposal for an Asean claimants-only code," Pitlo said, noting that claimant states also did not want to leave their largest trade partner out of the conversation.

China has been the largest trade partner for not just the Philippines, Malaysia and Vietnam but also Asean as a whole for 14 consecutive years, with bilateral trade volume between China and the bloc standing at US$975.3 billion in 2022.

Despite Marcos Jnr's comments about approaching regional neighbours, Vietnam and Malaysia did not issue any official responses or comments.

Aaron Jed Rabena, a senior lecturer at the University of the Philippines' Asian Centre, said Manila was consistent in maintaining its commitment to the regional COC as it believed that it was "a diplomatic way to rein in China's behaviour" in the South China Sea.

The mini COC, he said, was an attempt by the Philippines to "strengthen its bargaining position and rally a united front versus" China.

"Whether or not Malaysia and Vietnam are on the same page with the Philippines will depend on their current and future threat perception of China," Rabena said.

He added that the dispute between the Philippines and China should not be entirely framed as a product of superpower rivalry, as this would mean Manila "has no agency or maritime entitlements" in the South China Sea.

Noting that there were two levels to the dispute - between the United States and China, and China and the Philippines - Rabena said in the case of the latter, Manila "primarily cares about fishing rights and resupply access but does not see the China-US tech race and trade wars in the same level of interest".

China earlier criticised the Philippines for taking provocative actions in the South China Sea, where the two countries are engaged in territorial disputes, and vowed to "respond resolutely" to defend its rights.

John Bradford, executive director at the Yokosuka Council on Asia-Pacific Studies, said a regional COC "seems quite unlikely to come to completion" because anything beyond the current agreements would require compromise on sovereign rights and responsibilities.

"So long as China continues to press ahead with solidification of the military and administrative power to enforce its maritime claims, it is only natural that its smaller neighbours will explore opportunities to cooperate among each other," he said.

"Recent Philippine actions underscore the fact that their umbrage is with Chinese action ... [Manila] benefits from its alliance with the US, but they are pushing back against a perceived aggressor, not the surrogates of another conflict."

In a statement on Sunday, the Philippine coastguard accused Chinese coastguard vessels of deploying a floating barrier at the disputed Scarborough Shoal, and conducting "blocking manoeuvres" about 1.3 nautical miles from the shoal.

On Monday, Chinese foreign ministry spokeswoman Mao Ning said the move on the shoal called Huangyan Island in Chinese was "necessary" as it was China's "inherent territory".

Last week, Marcos Jnr said the Philippines would file charges against Chinese fishermen if the government found legal basis for their alleged use of cyanide to damage the Scarborough Shoal.

"If we feel that there is an enough ground to do so, we will," Marcos Jnr said, referring to reports earlier received by the Bureau of Fisheries and Aquatic Resources that Chinese fishermen were using cyanide to damage the shoal and to prevent Filipino boats from fishing in the area.

Pitlo said as a smaller country, the Philippines saw international law as an "equaliser", with legal options being part of its "toolkit" to promote its maritime interests.

"But fast and game-changing facts on the ground and the difficulty of implementing the 2016 arbitral award may test heavy reliance on legal approaches," Pitlo added, referring to a ruling handed down by the Permanent Court of Arbitration in The Hague which concluded which found that Beijing's claims to almost the entirety of the South China Sea was groundless. China has rejected the ruling.

Rabena said the president's statement on the environmental case, if proven true, was part of the Marcos administration's "strategy of assertive transparency".

"[It] aims to impose reputational costs and increase international pressure on China, believing that in doing so, China will change its behaviour," Rabena added.

This article originally appeared on the South China Morning Post (SCMP).

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