Philippines-China relations: will 3-way summit with US, Japan further erode Manila-Beijing ties?

Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jnr will attend a trilateral summit in Washington on Thursday with US President Joe Biden and Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, a meeting that analysts say could push Beijing to reduce trade with Manila.

Observers have also speculated that the main reason behind the two-day summit is to strengthen maritime defensive efforts to counter China's increasingly aggressive actions in the Asia-Pacific.

Hans Mohaiman Siriban, the Philippines' acting foreign affairs deputy undersecretary for bilateral relations, said the summit was "not directed at any country" but aimed to deepen ties on economic cooperation, maritime security and climate change among the three countries.

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The summit comes on the heels of China's coastguard vessels and its maritime military using water cannons on Philippine coastguard ships accompanying boats on a supply mission to Manila's military outpost on the Second Thomas Shoal in the South China Sea on March 23.

Jose Manuel Romualdez, the Philippines' ambassador to the US, said in a press conference on Thursday that the summit will focus on advancing the three countries' partnership by promoting trilateral growth and emerging technologies that will further enhance peace in the region.

Romualdez said topics to be discussed during the meeting would include defence and security cooperation, addressing emerging and traditional security threats in the maritime domain, economic and technological cooperation, and clean energy.

While Manila was unwilling to cede any territory, it was open to resolve its differences with China diplomatically, he added.

China has competing claims in the South China Sea not only with the Philippines but also Malaysia, Brunei and Vietnam.

China uses the "nine-dash line" on maps to assert Beijing's claims over some 90 per cent of the South China Sea, but The Hague tribunal ruled in 2016 that these claims had no legal basis and recognised the Philippines' sovereign rights in the resource-rich waterway.

Beijing has refused to accept the ruling.

In light of Manila's efforts to strengthen cooperation with allies, China may suspend imports from the Philippines, according to Ramon Beleno III, head of the political science and history department at Ateneo De Davao University in southern Davao City.

In 2012, China imposed tighter controls over banana imports from the Philippines after Manila took Beijing to the international court alleging that Chinese naval vessels had obstructed the Philippines' entry to Scarborough Shoal.

Banana exports from the Philippines to China stood at US$406 million in 2022, according to data from Boston-based data visualisation site the Observatory of Economic Complexity.

On Sunday, Japan, the US, Australia and the Philippines conducted anti-submarine drills, warfare training, and communication exercises in the disputed South China Sea.

Marcos Jnr on Monday expressed hope for an end to Chinese aggression in the West Philippine Sea - Manila's name for the parts of the South China Sea that fall within its exclusive economic zone - after the joint military exercises, saying Philippine officials were continuing to talk to their Chinese counterparts to prevent tensions from escalating.

"We continue to talk at a ministerial level, at a sub-ministerial level, at a people-to-people level, so that there will be no collisions and water cannoning," he said.

On the same day as the maritime drills, Beijing announced it would conduct similar exercises in the waterway.

On Monday, however, Philippine armed forces chief General Romeo Brawner Jnr said they had not yet encountered any Chinese "combat patrols".

"While we were conducting our own exercises in the West Philippine Sea, we only monitored the presence of two PLA Navy ships and there were no combat patrols or exercises," he said.

Later this month, the US and the Philippines plan to conduct their annual Balikatan joint military exercises involving some 11,000 American and 5,000 Filipino troops in the South China Sea.

The 39th edition of the annual exercises, carried out under the two countries' 1951 Mutual Defence Treaty, aim to enhance force capability and strengthen cooperation in maritime security, amphibious operations, live-fire training, urban and aviation operations, counterterrorism, humanitarian assistance and disaster relief.

Their treaty obliges both countries to aid the other in the face of aggression from an external power, and the Pentagon has said it remained prepared to assist Manila amid threats from other nations.

This article originally appeared on the South China Morning Post (SCMP).

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