NPR

What even are Oscar predictions, really?

When making predictions, Pop Culture Happy Hour host Linda Holmes follows this complicated formula: She looks at precursor awards, she considers Academy history — and she listens to her heart.
Source: Bryan Bedder

I've been making Oscar predictions for years now; I did it again this week! So many people make Oscar predictions now that there's a good argument to be made that it begins to create a false idea that people are "locks" or have "a spot." The writer Mark Harris (who, it's fair to note, is married to repeat nominee screenwriter Tony Kushner) has made a good argument that there's a downside to punditry and precursor awards, as they tend to distort the entire process.

But ours tend to happen right before the awards, so that's

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