1 Russian offensive succeeds
Moscow achieves a breakthrough in the east either soon, before Ukraine gets its western weaponry in place, or after a Ukrainian counteroffensive fails. The invaders’ key advantage is the number of troops available – about 300,000, almost all already committed to Ukraine.
Some Ukrainian experts fear a pincer movement to encircle Donbas and the east from Sumy in the north and Velyka Novosilka in the south, allowing Russia to occupy most of the four Ukrainian provinces
