A hyperpolarized, deeply fragile 2022 election: Democrats’ energy over Roe blunts GOP advantage

At the start of 2022, the political consensus was Democrats were toast. Inflation was at record highs, President Joe Biden’s approval numbers were slumping and precedent pointed to odds heavily stacked against the party that held the White House in the November midterms.

Nine months later, inflation is still high, Biden’s ratings remain subpar and the history books are unchanged. Yet the chatter among pundits and party strategists now centers on whether the Democrats’ might avoid a rout this fall — or even, improbably, keep their hold of Congress.

The narrative may flip once, or a few times, more during this nine-week sprint to the general election that customarily begins in earnest after Labor Day. While conventional wisdom often churns during the campaign season, the state of play is particularly enigmatic in this unsettled political moment.

Since the last national vote in 2020, the country has endured, among other things,