RECESSION-PROOF YOUR FINANCES
THE SIGNS OF FINANCIAL GLOOM ARE SEEM-ingly everywhere. Inflation is now at its highest point in more than 40 years. Stocks officially fell into a bear market in June, dropping more than 20 percent from their peak in January. Bonds and cryptocurrency are bleeding red ink too, with Bitcoin losing over half of its value so far this year. And, as if all that weren’t bad enough, economists are now warning in increasingly heated language about the rising risk of recession—a three-syllable term with four-letter-word implications.
By one common but unofficial definition of recession—two consecutive quarters of economic contraction—the downturn could materialize within weeks, when estimates of GDP for the second quarter will be released. They’re expected to show the economy shrank by about 2 percent on an annualized basis during the three-month period that ended on June 30, following a 1.6 percent drop in the first quarter. But it is up to academics at the National Bureau of Economic Research, a private nonprofit group, to officially determine if the U.S. is in a recession, which it defines as a significant decline in economic activity that’s spread across the economy and lasts more than a few months.
Predictions about if and when that official recession will arrive are all over the place. A recent paper by Federal Reserve economist Michael Kiley suggests there’s a greater than 50 percent chance of a downturn between now and March. Meanwhile, Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley peg the probability of recession within a year at 30 percent, Deloitte forecasters put the likelihood at just 15 percent and BlackRock simply predicts “real economic pain” ahead as the Fed continues to raise interest rates (there have been three hikes already this year) in an effort to combat inflation.
“The biggest elephant in the room for investors, market experts and everyday individuals is the level of uncertainty about the future,” says Lindsey Bell, chief markets and money strategist at Ally Invest. “It is clear parts of the economy are slowing and serious headwinds are present for both the market and the consumer. What is uncertain is which way we break from here. It is causing a lot of anxiety for everyone.”
In fact, many people already feel like their personal economy is in the dumpster or could land there soon, whether an official recession is coming or not. In June, the University of Michigan’s index of consumer sentiment hit the lowest level in its 70-year history and it has remained near those record lows ever since. Nearly six in 10 Americans in
