PUTIN’S ENDGAME

AS THE BATTLE OF WILLS AND MIGHT BETWEEN Russia and the West over the fate of Ukraine unfolds, there is one key fact to bear in mind: Vladimir Putin has never lost a war. During past conflicts in Chechnya, Georgia, Syria and Crimea over his two decades in power, Putin succeeded by giving his armed forces clear, achievable military objectives that would allow him to declare victory, credibly, in the eyes of the Russian people and a wary, watching world. His latest initiative in Ukraine is unlikely to be any different.

Despite months of military buildup along Ukraine’s borders and repeated warnings from the Biden administration that an incursion could happen at any time, the February 24 predawn bombing campaign that kicked off Europe’s first land war in decades seemed to come as a surprise to many Ukrainians. In major cities across a country the size of the state of Texas, a stunned populace, lulled into complacency by its president’s repeated reassurances that Russia would not invade, watched and listened to the sound of thunderous explosions targeting Ukrainian military bases, airports and command and control centers. Within days, the conflict spread rapidly, with Russian tanks and troops attacking Kyiv, the capital; Kharkiv, the second largest city; and fighting around Chernobyl, the site of the disastrous 1986 nuclear reactor meltdown. Shock and awe, Russian style.

In an instant, Russian President Putin’s invasion of Ukraine destroyed the post-Cold War security order in Europe—one centered, to Russia’s fury, by an often-expanding NATO alliance. Analysts expect that, if and when Kyiv falls (it hadn’t at press time), the military aggression will give way to a political settlement that puts a Russia-friendly government in place. By February 27, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky had tentatively agreed to talks with Moscow