Will China and India's refusal to condemn Russia over Ukraine invasion harm their reputations in Asean?

Like countless other online Chinese keyboard warriors, Yu Zhe (an online pseudonym) applauded the Russian invasion of Ukraine late last month. Agreeing with him was another online user who said "if Russia does not wage war, they will be threatened by Nato's eastward expansion" referring to the North Atlantic Treaty Organization military alliance of European and North American countries.

These comments match what is being said at the highest levels of Chinese diplomacy, with foreign ministry spokesman Wang Wenbin on Thursday repeating Beijing's accusations that Washington provoked the war by not ruling out Nato membership for Ukraine. But Beijing has also issued disapproval of its close ally Moscow's actions with Foreign Minister Wang Yi saying on Tuesday that China is deeply grieved to see the outbreak of conflict and is "extremely concerned" over the damage done to civilians.

Media commentators and analysts say such "doublespeak" reflects Beijing's increasingly complicated balancing act as fighting between Ukrainian forces and Russian troops intensifies.

Do you have questions about the biggest topics and trends from around the world? Get the answers with SCMP Knowledge, our new platform of curated content with explainers, FAQs, analyses and infographics brought to you by our award-winning team.

But for former senior Singaporean diplomat Bilahari Kausikan, Beijing is attempting to shift the narrative on Ukraine "from the fact of invasion, to the unreliability of Nato".

"There is a second line if you like, that it's all Ukraine's fault, it's all the [West's] fault for encouraging Ukraine to do things that were not in Ukraine's interests," Kausikan said, noting that China is clearly in an awkward position.

"China has a lot of explaining to do, to itself, to its citizens, to countries around it, and I don't think they have any good answers, not now and not in the future," Kausikan said, adding that people are going to look at China with even more scepticism than before.

Speaking at the same online event, former Australian prime minister Kevin Rudd said "China's standing in Europe takes a beating, China's standing in the rest of Asia takes a beating, and China's standing even in large parts of the developing world takes a beating over this as well."

Their assessment is shared by Tan Chong Ming, an ethnic Chinese sales director living in Malaysia's capital Kuala Lumpur, who is part of the millions-strong Chinese diaspora that believes China's rise is a force for regional and global good.

While acknowledging there are Chinese voices opposing the invasion of Ukraine, Beijing's refusal to condemn Moscow for its act of naked aggression has left him hot under the collar.

"China is finding excuses for Russia, if it cannot be more forceful about condemning Moscow, then I fear it is leaving room for itself to undertake strong-arm actions against its smaller neighbours, especially those in Southeast Asia," Tan added.

Analysts say this could have been top of mind for the eight out of 10 Asean countries that voted to support a UN General Assembly resolution condemning Russia's invasion of Ukraine earlier this week. Only Vietnam and Laos abstained and Myanmar's vote came from a representative of its deposed civilian government.

The issue could further lower regional trust in China, analysts say. The Singapore-based ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute, in its latest State of Southeast Asia Survey released last month found that while most countries saw China as the most influential economic, political and strategic power in the region, far fewer had confidence in its leadership for maintaining a rules-based order and upholding international law.

Among the 1,677 respondents, 58.1 per cent had either little or no confidence in China to do the right thing to contribute to global peace, security, prosperity and governance. In contrast, only 29.6 per cent and 21.8 per cent felt the same for the United States and Japan respectively.

But Li Xing, a politics and society professor at Aalborg University in Denmark, said while many Chinese had expressed understanding of Russia's actions in Ukraine, it is not the same as supporting the Ukrainian war.

Rather, the Chinese are putting themselves in the shoes of the Russians, and drawing a parallel between the war in Ukraine where Kyiv's "sovereignty and territorial integrity" were emphasised by all sides, Li said, while other wars such as those in Iraq, Libya, Syria, Afghanistan and even the "colour revolutions" were not.

Colour revolutions refer to the protest movements and change of governments that took place in several countries mainly in the former Soviet Union and former Yugoslavia over a decade ago which many claimed were supported by western governments, especially the US.

"Where was the sovereignty and territorial integrity of those countries involved? Chinese still vividly remember how Yugoslavia, including the Chinese embassy, was bombed by Nato and how the country was forcefully disintegrated," Li said, referring to the 1999 incident in which the Chinese embassy was hit during Nato's bombing of Yugoslavia, killing three Chinese journalists and outraging the Chinese public.

"The Chinese are deeply fed up by the West's consistent double standards on various aspects of world affairs," Li said, adding that this can also be seen in how Washington and its allies have supported and treated Taiwan "as an independent entity".

But China isn't the only Asian juggernaut that has not taken a firm stance. India abstained from the UN resolution and while Indonesia, Southeast Asia's largest economy, voted in support of it, its initial reaction to the invasion was seen as restrained. Jakarta has also not described the war in Ukraine as an invasion.

Like Vietnam, India which receives 60 per cent of its arms from Russia to keep China in check can ill-afford to alienate Moscow due to the need to maintain equipment and source spare parts.

As a Quad member alongside the US, Australia and Japan, India was expected to uphold an international order emphasising global rules such as sovereignty and has been criticised for not doing so.

Don McLain Gill, resident fellow at the Manila-based International Development and Security Cooperation organisation said India was driven by its own security concerns and that most ordinary Indians understood their country's position and are generally "positive and supportive".

Sana Hashmi, a visiting fellow at the Taiwan-Asia Exchange Foundation said that the Quad was renewed in recent months primarily to address the China challenge and Russia "isn't a part of that package".

While there is greater convergence between India and the West in the Indo-Pacific region, it is still "not mature enough for India to abandon its current position", Hashmi said, adding that the West needs to invest more in its relations with India if it wants Delhi "to include issues other than China".

Even though India is criticised for not being "on the side of democracies", Hashmi said its standing in the region, especially in Asean, is unlikely to be affected.

"Not all Asean member states are democratic, the question is will they have a similar approach or be vocal if China's aggression is in focus," Hashmi said.

In Indonesia, its people decried their country's lacklustre response on social media, with Twitter user Ruli Harahap calling on Indonesia's foreign ministry to "condemn under the strongest possible terms Russia's unprovoked and unjustifiable invasion of Ukraine."

Ukraine's embassy in Jakarta released an open letter to its host on Tuesday appealing for support, but Foreign Minister Retno Marsudi would only respond that both Ukraine and Russia were Indonesia's "good friends".

"Indonesia wants to forge a stronger friendship with both countries," she said.

Gilang Kembara, a researcher at the international relations department at the Centre for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) Indonesia said during a webinar this week that Jakarta's weak response is caused by its dependence on Russia for the maintenance of its defence equipment. Indonesia now operates four Russian-made Sukhoi fighter jets, alongside a handful of US-made F-16 fighters.

Gilang said that Indonesia is likely to take a tougher stance if China decides to launch attacks on Taiwan, as "it will carry a greater impact to Indonesia [than the current Ukraine crisis], particularly if China also decides to attack [its adversaries] in the South China Sea."

Li Xirui, a PhD candidate at the S Rajaratnam School of International Studies at Singapore's Nanyang Technological University, said that the Indonesian response appeared weaker compared to Singapore's.

"But when compared with other Southeast Asian [states] and the statement made by Asean foreign ministers, Indonesia has made a quite strong response," said Li, who is also a research fellow at the Guangzhou-based Intellisia Institute think tank.

Yohanes Sulaiman, an associate international-relations professor at the Jenderal Achmad Yani University in West Java's Cimahi city said that apart from Jakarta keeping its options open for weapon procurement, many Indonesians, particularly those in the military remain wary of the US and the European Union.

These Indonesians fear that a military embargo similar to the one in 1999 would be imposed in the aftermath of the East Timor referendum, Yohanes said, referring to the landmark vote in which 78.5 per cent of East Timorese chose independence from Indonesia after 24 years of military occupation.

"The embargo crippled the Indonesian air force, and even today, the military, especially the air force, [remains] wary of being too reliant on the US and EU, and thus has to be cautious in regards to Russia," Yohanes said, pointing out that Jakarta does not wish to alienate any major power given Russia's status as a "less threatening alternative" as compared to the US and China.

On whether there would be any reputational damage for Indonesia, especially in Asean, Yohanes said it is unlikely as the region is divided on the issue: Singapore and the Philippines have condemned Russia's invasion, while the rest have expressed statements of concern.

"Most countries in Southeast Asia simply want to play safe," Yohanes said, adding that Jakarta is vocal on issues such as those relating to Palestine as doing so has domestic implications and is also "widely popular".

Speaking out for the overthrow of the civilian government by the Myanmar military is also "domestically popular" due to the country's treatment of the Muslim Rohingyas, Yohanes added.

Additional reporting by Resty Woro Yuniar

This article originally appeared on the South China Morning Post (SCMP).

Copyright (c) 2022. South China Morning Post Publishers Ltd. All rights reserved.