Retailers say theft is at crisis levels. The numbers say otherwise

Organized retail crime is haunting the nation this holiday season.

Captured on smartphones and closed-circuit cameras, thefts involving groups of people smashing windows or individuals wheeling loaded shopping carts past security guards and out the door have been looping on social media and TV news, raising the specter that crime rings reselling boosted merchandise present a major threat to retailers.

With industry groups sounding the alarm, politicians have declared the issue a priority. California Gov. Gavin Newsom said he would increase the budget of the California Highway Patrol next year to beef up its Organized Retail Theft task force. California Atty. Gen. Rob Bonta met with retailers, online marketplace companies and law enforcement Tuesday to develop strategies to fight organized retail crime. Police and prosecutors say criminal justice reforms need to be rolled back to deter smash-and-grabs.

Although some retail and law enforcement lobbyists cite eye-popping figures, there is reason to doubt the problem is anywhere near as large or widespread as they say. The best estimates available put losses at around 7 cents per $100 of sales on average.

It's easy to get attention for sensational claims, however, particularly when they come from official sources. Rachel that in San Francisco and Oakland alone, businesses lose $3.6 billion to organized retail crime each year.