Could the global death toll be far higher than we thought?

For the past 18 months, hunkered down in his apartment in Tel Aviv, Ariel Karlinsky has scoured the internet for data that could help him calculate the true death toll of Covid-19.

The 31-year-old economics student at the Hebrew University of Jerusalem had never worked on health matters before but he was troubled by rumours early in the pandemic that Israel was not experiencing higher than expected death rates.

“This was, of course, not true,” Karlinsky said. “Excess mortality was definitely there and it was definitely very visible.” He pulled up the numbers to prove it: Israel has a sophisticated vital registration system.

Other rumours followed. One