The stakes for November—and beyond

THERE ARE MANY THEORIES ABOUT why Donald Trump won the presidency, but Mitch McConnell gets some of the credit. In February 2016, Supreme Court Justice Antonin Scalia died, paving the way for then President Obama to replace him with a jurist who would pull the court left. Trump had not yet wrapped up the GOP nomination, and many conservatives were skeptical of the former Democrat. McConnell, the Senate Republican leader, refused to hold hearings on Obama’s court nominee, arguing the winner of the election should fill the seat.

Democrats deplored the obstruction and predicted voters wouldn’t tolerate it. But the judicial opening was a profound motivator for conservatives—especially after Trump, in a novel move, issued a list of conservative jurists from which he said his nominees would be selected. In exit polls, 1 in 5 2016 voters said the Supreme Court was