Trump Touts Misleading and Flawed Excess Mortality Statistic

On six separate occasions, President Donald Trump has claimed that Europe’s excess mortality during the COVID-19 pandemic is 33% to 40% higher than America’s. But that’s only possible when cherry-picking numbers or ignoring Europe’s larger population.

It’s a meaningless comparison anyway, experts say, given differences in population age and density, a later arrival of the coronavirus on American shores, and a still raging epidemic in the U.S.

The president recited the misleading statistic in three consecutive press briefings, starting on Aug. 11, when he said, “Europe has experienced a nearly 40% higher excess mortality rate than the United States.”

The following day, he dropped the caveat of “nearly,” and declared that “Europe has experienced a 40% higher excess mortality than the United States.” And on Aug. 13, he iterated the point again.

Trump then repeated the claim for a fourth time on Aug. 17 in a speech in Mankato, Minnesota, after touting a decline in the fatality rate for the elderly.

“Europe by contrast has experienced a 40% higher rate of excess mortality than the United States,” he said, before referencing