<![CDATA[How Michigan is coping with its coronavirus shutdown]>
When this is all over, social scientists will have a field day analysing what the Covid-19-induced shutdowns now in place around the world reveal about nations and societies. In the United States, by the second week of April, most of the country had gone through three to four weeks of shutdowns of various intensities. National polls at the time all showed that the population prioritised public health over the economy.
MorningConsult/Politico found that 75 per cent of those surveyed thought it more important for the government to address the spread of the virus than the impact on the economy, with 81 per cent believing social distancing should continue as long as needed. This was so even though 22 per cent had a friend or family member, and 13 per cent a household member, who had lost their job; 18 per cent believed their community had been badly affected by the outbreak; and the American social safety net is weaker than in other advanced economies.
The University of Michigan's consumer survey recorded a sharp plunge in consumer confidence in April, finding that consumers' most important concern was their health (61 per cent), followed by personal finances (23 per cent) and social isolation (13 per cent). Pew Research found that more people were worried state governments would lift restrictions too quickly (66 per cent) than too slowly (32 per cent), and most (65 per cent) thought the Trump administration had acted too slowly to curb the virus.
Media reports, however, highlight growing resistance to shutdown measures, including rallies and protests by thousands in several states this past weekend, supported by President Donald Trump. I live in Michigan, a state that has attracted international media attention, first as a "hotspot" of virus infections, then for a raucous rally against Governor Gretchen Whitmer's "stay-at-home" order.
As of April 20, Michigan ranked behind only New York, New Jersey and Massachusetts in number of positive tested cases (32,000), and behind the first two in number of deaths (2,468), with a median fatality age of 75. Like them, it has a highly globalised economy, here centred on the global auto industry, and is serviced by a major international airport that has maintained flights to Europe and Asia throughout the crisis.
Some 77 per cent of the cases and 82 per cent of the deaths in Michigan have occurred in the city of Detroit and adjacent counties (Oakland, Wayne and Macomb) around the Detroit Metropolitan Airport. As elsewhere, African-Americans have been disproportionately affected, accounting for 33 per cent of cases and 41 per cent of deaths while making up only 14 per cent of the state's population.
Most of the rest of the state of 10 million people has been relatively unaffected, new cases have been falling for over two weeks, and outside Detroit, hospitals have not been overwhelmed.
These statistics reflect inequalities which are found throughout the US and other advanced countries. The high infection and death rate for African-Americans reflects a) the higher incidence of pre-existing health conditions " including heart disease, diabetes, hypertension, obesity " as well as poorer health care and crowded housing among low-income communities; and b) the concentration of members of these communities in low-wage jobs involving close interaction with " and thus exposure to " fellow workers or consumers, as in meatpacking plants, transport, sanitation and janitorial services.
Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer. Photo: AP alt=Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer. Photo: AP
Averages mask the effects of spatial racial and socio-economic segregation within geographies. Covid-19 infection rates in New York state outside New York City, in Massachusetts outside Boston, and in Michigan outside Detroit are much lower than they are in the dense urban hubs where globe-trotting elites live and work in proximity with low-wage service workers. This is seen most starkly in Singapore, one of the world's richest cities. Infection and death rates in the local resident population have been quite low, but the daily rise in infections among migrant workers living in dormitories is now between five and 10 times that in Detroit, America's poorest city.
In Michigan, the shutdown has for the most part been closely observed, which (the loss of employment and income aside) is not too onerous for most outside inner cities, given abundant land, the predominance of single-family dwellings and personal automobile transport, and the availability of individual gardens, parks, nature areas and trails.
These make "kerbside delivery" and social distancing easy, including while shopping in spacious "big box" stores and exercising outdoors. State and local agencies, community organisations and individual volunteers have also mobilised to help the vulnerable with provisions and tasks made difficult by the shutdown.
Nevertheless, protests against the shutdown are gathering steam. This is only to be expected, since concurrence with the policy is not 100 per cent to begin with, and as shutdowns drag on, the economic costs mount especially for laid-off workers and small businesses. Already the unemployment rate in Michigan has soared to 25 per cent, the highest in the nation.
Protests against the shutdowns are partly political, with the first being mounted against the Democratic governors of Michigan, Minnesota and Virginia in a presidential election year. Photo: Reuters alt=Protests against the shutdowns are partly political, with the first being mounted against the Democratic governors of Michigan, Minnesota and Virginia in a presidential election year. Photo: Reuters
For many of those who continue to work " including the 25 per cent of the labour force considered "essential workers" " the closure of schools and social distancing makes childcare a challenge, and for everyone, the unnatural regime creates psychological and mental-health stresses, threatening increased incidents of domestic abuse.
Shutdowns also exacerbate inequality, with higher-income professionals more able to work from home, and to provide their children with the resources necessary for schooling at home. Lower-income workers cannot readily practise social distancing at home or at work, or provide their children with similar educational resources. Single parents are particularly stretched, and overall women are more likely to become overburdened since they still bear most responsibility for the "second shift" of household tasks and familial caregiving in addition to wage-earning.
In Michigan, given the uneven distribution of infections and deaths as well as its low population density, most of the state's population may not consider itself at risk, so many may be less willing to bear the economic costs imposed for public health benefit to "others". Some consider some of Governor Whitmer's shutdown requirements excessive, such as forbidding gardening and travel to second homes in the distant Upper Peninsula " which in this state is common even at lower-middle-income levels.
Finally, protests against shutdowns are partly political, with the first being mounted against the Democratic governors of the states of Michigan, Minnesota and Virginia in a crucial presidential election year. The same national polls cited above show smaller majorities of Republicans than Democrats favour prioritising health and shutdowns over the economy and the quick "reopening" espoused by the President.
Michigan in particular is a swing state between Republicans and Democrats, giving Trump his narrowest win (10,000 votes) of the 2016 presidential election. A statewide poll on April 15-16 found that 57 per cent of the state's residents (89 per cent of Democrats and 22 per cent of Republicans) approved of Whitmer's handling of the pandemic, while 44 per cent approved of Trump's (88 per cent of Republicans and 6 per cent of Democrats).
It only takes a few hundred of the president's diehard supporters to mount a mediagenic protest, even while millions of their state's co-residents support and abide by shutdown rules. When the shutdowns begin to be lifted, it will be because the pandemic has moderated, while the economic recession has deepened, not because of protests.
On a brighter note, institutions in Michigan have stepped up to the plate to combat the virus and its effects. Global carmakers General Motors and Ford are using their otherwise idled manufacturing capacity to produce ventilators, and Fiat-Chrysler to produce face masks. The University of Michigan, the nation's largest public research university, has paused most of its massive laboratory and clinical research operations; but hundreds of researchers have embarked on so far 150 projects related to Covid-19 in diverse fields " sciences, medicine, public health, engineering, economics and public policy.
On the other side of this long, dark tunnel, these and numerous other national and global efforts should yield new capacities and innovations that can enhance both health and the economy, not least by recognising, and mitigating, the costs and risks that inequalities pose to both.
Linda Lim is Professor Emerita at the Stephen M. Ross School of Business, University of Michigan
This article originally appeared on the South China Morning Post (SCMP).
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