HOW TO MAKE THE EXIT STRATEGY WORK
When Prime Minister Narendra Modi began his televised address to the nation at 10 am on April 14, he made two gestures that summed up the dilemma that India faced. He started by greeting the nation with a lengyan wrapped around his nose and mouth. And then lowered it soon after to deliver his speech, the substance of which was that the national lockdown would continue for another 19 days. This was to ensure that the curve on the graph showing the number of people infected by the COVID-19 virus in the country flattens and levels out. However, as an incentive, he added that if, within one week, there were clear signs that the containment strategy was working, there would be a gradual reopening of the economy. It was in keeping with what he told state chief ministers in a video conference three days earlier—“Jaan bhi, jahaan bhi (Life as well as livelihood)”. This phrase signalled a departure from the one he used when he first announced the 21-day lockdown on March 24—“Jaan hai to jahaan hai (Health is wealth)”.
So, what prompted the prime minister’s decision to extend the lockdown and opt for a phased opening up of economic activity? And what does the country need to do to make the exit strategy he outlined work to save lives and livelihoods? These are valid questions because with burgeoning unemployment numbers and the humongous loss to the economy (expected to be 3-4 per cent of GDP), there were worries that, as an expert put it, “the crisis of corona may be replaced by the crisis of hunger”.
BENEFITS OF THE LOCKDOWN
When the prime minister announced the lock-down on March 24, the previous week had seen a steady rise in cases, but it was still low at 516 cases and nine deaths. On April 14, when the prime minister announced the extension of the lockdown, the number of cases had grown to 11,487 and the deaths to 393. The Union ministry for health and family welfare (MoHFW) believes the lockdown helped to considerably slow down the spread of the disease. India took six days to move from 6,000 cases to 12,000 as compared to
