The One Way That Iowa Looks Like the Democratic Party

DES MOINES—It’s no secret that Iowa has been only lightly touched by the increasing racial diversity that has reconfigured the Democratic Party nationwide. But while the demographic change evident in the Democratic coalition has largely bypassed Iowa, the state has been swept up in the party’s most important geographic change.

Democrats in Iowa are improving their performance in the urban centers that are driving most of the state’s population growth, while the party is simultaneously losing ground in the small towns and rural areas that are either stagnant or losing population. With the Iowa caucus just days away, the cumulative force of this population shift could tilt the final outcome in what looks to be a tight race.

In Monday’s contest, the Democratic candidates will be more reliant on metro areas—particularly those with large