<![CDATA[Trump, Xi and Putin risk flames as far as Syria in Afghanistan's stalling ceasefire of the vanities]>
In early September, US President Donald Trump was secretly preparing for what would have been his most striking photo call since an excursion across Korea's demilitarised zone in June to meet Kim Jong-un.
Trump had been set for a historic summit at Camp David with the Taliban's second-in-command, Abdul Ghani Baradar, to discuss a peace deal to bring home American troops from Afghanistan.
But the president suddenly announced on September 8 that the meeting had been cancelled after a Taliban truck bombing in Kabul killed an American soldier and 11 other people.
US President Donald Trump in the Oval Office at the White House. Photo: AFP
"What kind of people would kill so many in order to seemingly strengthen their bargaining position? They didn't, they only made it worse!" Trump raged in a tweet after the bombing.
According to the United Nations Assistance Mission in the country, an unprecedented 1,174 civilians were killed and 3,139 wounded in Afghanistan's conflict-related violence between July and September. Insurgents were held responsible for 62 per cent of these numbers, but the proportion of casualties caused by pro-government forces climbed to 26 per cent.
Many died during the Taliban's siege of northern Baghlan province in the days leading up to the scheduled Camp David talks. The civilian toll was echoed in Pentagon statistics: the US conducted 1,113 air strikes in Afghanistan in September, up from 810 raids in August, and 537 in July.
These figures represent the equivalent of a bad day in Syria's continuing civil war, and Washington think-tank scholars have been left wondering what impact developments in one conflict zone could have on the other if the proposed peace deal between the US and the Taliban is not struck soon.
Taliban chief negotiator Abdul Ghani Baradar. Photo: Reuters
There are 2.3 million Afghan refugees in neighbouring Pakistan and Iran. A similar number of Syrian refugees in Turkey are awaiting resettlement in Syria's northern border zone following Ankara's invasion last month and displacement of Kurdish rebels from the area. Meanwhile, about 130,000 Afghans have been internally displaced by fighting this year. In Syria, the number is 166,000.
The recent death of Islamic State (Isis) chief Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi in a US special forces operation in Idlib has added another variable to the mix. His death could inspire new violence.
"One thing I'll be watching: how, if at all, does the killing of Baghdadi impact Isis-Khorasan [which is largely based in Afghanistan and to a lesser extent Pakistan], one of the most resilient Isis affiliates? Its relationship with Isis central has always been unclear," said Michael Kugelman, senior South Asia associate at think tank The Wilson Centre.
Events in Afghanistan will be dictated by Trump's re-election campaign schedule leading up to the polls in 2020, so time is of the essence. General Scott Miller, the commander of US and Nato forces in the country, has revealed that the number of American troops has quietly been reduced by 2,000 to 12,000 over the last year as the US president looks to make good on a pledge to bring soldiers home.
An internally displaced Afghan family sits inside a tent at a refugee camp in Herat province. Photo: Reuters
In roughly the same period, US special envoy Zalmay Khalilzad has been engaged in hectic diplomatic efforts to put together a peace agreement backed by a long list of geopolitical players, including China and Russia.
Many in Afghanistan fear Trump could easily tire of negotiations if they drag out and, like his friend Boris Johnson in Britain's wrangling with the European Union, push for a no-deal exit.
"The die has already been cast on the US negotiating its withdrawal with the Taliban. We run the risk of a withdrawal without a peace deal," said Ershad Ahmadi, a former Afghan deputy foreign minister.
The sense of urgency has been reflected in a fast-unfolding series of multilateral diplomatic consultations and confidence-building measures with other international stakeholders. In the space of a few weeks, Khalilzad has been in touch with European allies in Brussels, his Russian and Chinese counterparts in Moscow, Afghanistan's political leaders, and Pakistan's powerful army chief. Negotiations for a prisoner swap with the Taliban's feared Haqqani network faction are also under way in an attempt to offer assurances that its hardline military commanders are on board with the peace process.
Islamic State chief Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi. Photo: AP
Khalilzad's interactions have produced a commonality of diplomatic language among the major players which reflects concerns shared by officials in Washington, Beijing and Moscow.
"I see this as a welcome series of statements likely presaging a renewed " and better coordinated " international diplomatic push towards the Taliban.
"I think we know how the Taliban will respond from past exchanges, but the emerging consensus represents progress," said James Schwemlein, a non-resident scholar on South Asia at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.
Competing world powers have strong motivations for sharing diplomatic responsibility.
Security concerns were a major reason why Chinese President Xi Jinping knowingly risked international ire by launching a mass re-education programme for Uygur Muslims in Xinjiang. Uygur militants of the East Turkmenistan Islamic Movement have used Afghanistan and Pakistan's tribal areas to plot attacks on China. Xi has also approved financing for a border fortress in the Badakhshan Corridor on the Sino-Afghan border as well as joint border patrols.
Chinese State Counsellor Wang Yi has been engaged in a two-year diplomatic effort to build a tense but workable relationship between key ally Pakistan and the Afghan government.
US special envoy Zalmay Khalilzad. Photo: AP
China's central role was further reflected in intra-Afghan peace talks hosted by Beijing on Wednesday and Thursday.
Also a premier player in Syria, Vladimir Putin has long been red-flagging the threat of an Isis migration to vast ungoverned spaces of Afghanistan. This has prompted the Kremlin to scale up Russia's military presence in neighbouring Tajikistan and even deploy an S-300 air defence system there last week.
Trump's messy withdrawal of troops from northern Syria last month left the region's Kurdish rebels, who had been fighting Isis with the support of the Americans, exposed to the invading Turks, who view them as terrorists.
His betrayal is reason aplenty to expect Trump to again shoot from the hip on Afghanistan, especially as his domestic political problems mount amid impeachment proceedings and signs of fragility in the US economy as the trade war with China bites.
This article originally appeared on the South China Morning Post (SCMP).
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