<![CDATA[John Bolton's exit 'a win' for North Korea in Trump-Kim denuclearisation talks, experts say]>
North Korea will welcome US President Donald Trump's firing of his national security adviser as a sign of softening attitudes in Washington as the regime seeks to restart stalled denuclearisation talks, according to seven analysts canvassed by This Week in Asia.
Trump announced John Bolton's departure on Tuesday night, saying his "services are no longer needed" after repeated policy disagreements.
Widely regarded as among the most hawkish figures in Washington, Bolton argued in favour of pre-emptive military action against the North and supported the "Libya model" of denuclearisation under which Muammar Gaddafi shipped key materials to the United States only to be toppled with the help of US forces seven years later.
The former US ambassador to the United Nations had repeatedly been singled out for invective in North Korean state media, which once labelled him "human scum" and a "war maniac".
"Pyongyang has viewed Bolton as the biggest threat even since the time of the George HW Bush administration given his hardline views such as advocating regime change in North Korea," said Ryo Hinata-Yamaguchi, a visiting professor at Pusan National University in South Korea.
"Given that North Korea has always expressed their dislike of Bolton, they would feel that Trump is flexible in meeting their demands. North Korea could move the goalpost in an attempt to persuade Trump to remove the other hardliners.
John Bolton, far left, during the second North Korea-US summit in Vietnam. Photo: Reuters alt=John Bolton, far left, during the second North Korea-US summit in Vietnam. Photo: Reuters
"Moreover, Bolton's departure would be interpreted as a relief ... but also an opportunity for Pyongyang to lure Trump into favourable agreements," said Hinata-Yamaguchi.
Kim Jong-ha, a security expert at Hannam University in Daejeon, South Korea, said Bolton's exit would give the North greater confidence of being able to extract concessions such as the signing of a peace treaty to bring a formal end to the Korean war, which Pyongyang has long demanded as a precursor to the removal of US troops from South Korea.
"Kim Jong-un is likely to expect the US policy on North Korea to be somewhat eased by the replacement of Bolton," Kim said.
Leif-Eric Easley, associate professor of international studies at Ewha Womans University in Seoul, said while the end of Bolton's tenure had more to do with US foreign policy challenges in Iran, Afghanistan and Venezuela, the timing was convenient for Washington's diplomacy with Pyongyang.
"Kim Jong-un can spin this personnel change in Washington as a win in North Korean domestic politics. That would increase the likelihood of denuclearisation talks restarting soon."
Daniel Pinkston, a former Korean linguist with the US Air Force who now lectures at Troy University in Seoul, said the North Koreans would feel better able to appeal directly to Trump's deal-making instincts and distrust of the traditional foreign policy establishment.
"They've always wanted to deal with Trump one-on-one," Pinkston said.
Srinivasan Sitaraman, North Korea expert and Clark University professor, pointed out: "Now that Bolton is out of the way and as the UN General Assembly gets underway next week in New York, there is no one to stop Mr Trump from making a deal with North Korea."
North Korean leader Kim Jong-un and US President Donald Trump. Photo: AP alt=North Korean leader Kim Jong-un and US President Donald Trump. Photo: AP
Speaking after Bolton's exit, US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo played down the likelihood of a shift in foreign policy, cautioning foreign leaders against any "assumption" about such changes.
Soo Kim, a former Korea analyst with the CIA, said Bolton's departure did not necessarily indicate there would be a sharp shift in policy. "I just don't see the administration suddenly shifting from the current approach to sanctions relaxation," she said.
Trump's removal of Bolton comes after North Korean Vice-Foreign Minister Choe Son-hui said on Monday that Pyongyang was willing to have "comprehensive discussions" about its nuclear programme before the end of September, while warning Washington against adhering to an "old scenario".
North Korean leader Kim Jong-un attends the testing of a missile on September 10. Photo: AFP alt=North Korean leader Kim Jong-un attends the testing of a missile on September 10. Photo: AFP
The overture came on the heels of repeated short-range missile launches by Pyongyang since June " although the North followed its outreach with the launch of two more projectiles into the sea just hours later.
Negotiations between Washington and Pyongyang have been stalled since February, when Trump walked out of his second summit with Kim in Hanoi, Vietnam.
Trump told media the summit collapsed after the North Korean side demanded a complete lifting of sanctions, while North Korean officials insisted they had only sought partial sanctions relief.
The Hanoi summit came after the two leaders signed a vaguely-worded statement in Singapore last year committing the North to work toward the "complete denuclearisation of the Korean peninsula".
Trump and Kim agreed to return to working-level talks during a brief third meeting in June, but negotiations have yet to get off the ground.
Lim Jae-cheon, a North Korea studies professor at Korea University in Seoul, said that Pyongyang was likely to reject any demand from the US for a "big deal" on denuclearisation during resumed negotiations.
"The North appears to prefer a step-by-step approach," said Lim. "If North Korea-US talks restart, the North may want to know specific concessions that the US can provide in a gradual denuclearisation process."
Additional reporting by Lee Jeong-ho
This article originally appeared on the South China Morning Post (SCMP).
Copyright (c) 2019. South China Morning Post Publishers Ltd. All rights reserved.
