Iowa’s Most Famous Pollster Faces Her Toughest Test Yet
She’s been called the “best pollster in politics” and the “queen of the Iowa caucuses.” But in the 2020 election, she’s confronting significant uncertainty in how the caucuses will unfold.
J. Ann Selzer, the head of the Des Moines Register’s Iowa Poll, first became the subject of national attention in 2008, when her survey correctly showed that Barack Obama would win the Iowa contest, thanks to unprecedented turnout among first-time voters. In 2014, Selzer’s poll pinpointed Senator Joni Ernst’s victory over the Democrat Bruce Braley within one percentage point. And ahead of the 2016 general election, her poll rightly warned of a drop-off in African American voters in Iowa. Even as Americans have grown doubtful about the polling industry’s ability to accurately forecast electoral outcomes, Selzer’s status among political observers hasn’t diminished.
