<![CDATA[Explained: what's at stake in Japan's 2019 upper house election?]>
Japan's upper house election on July 21, in which 124 seats will be up for grabs, is likely to be Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's final campaign, as he has promised to not contest another term as Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) leader after 2021.
Elections for half the upper house are fixed for every three years, so representatives serve staggered six-year terms. The number of seats has been raised from 242 to 248, to correct a voter-value disparity. For this election campaign, which officially started on July 4, there are 74 seats determined by first-past-the-post voting in prefectural constituencies, and the 50 other seats are allocated from national proportional representation votes on party lists.
Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe has vowed not to contest another term. Photo: Kyodo alt=Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe has vowed not to contest another term. Photo: Kyodo
If the governing coalition of the LDP and its junior partner the Komeito Party falls below its current upper house majority of 147, that will end Abe's hopes of amending Article 9 of the constitution, to embed formal recognition of the Japanese Self Defence Forces (SDF).
Critics fear such a change could potentially lead to the SDF being deployed to support United States military operations overseas.
If the LDP-Komeito coalition maintains its strong lead over the lacklustre opposition parties, it could retain the supermajority it has enjoyed since the 2016 election, followed by the 2017 lower house election, where they also won a supermajority of 312 seats out of 465.
The LDP-Komeito coalition needs to win 63 of the seats being contested to have a simple majority. If they win 83 seats, they will keep the two-thirds supermajority they presently enjoy with the support of smaller nationalist parties, such as the Japan Innovation Party and similarly inclined independents.
A two-thirds majority vote in both houses of the Diet, Japan's parliament, is needed to approve any referendum to change the constitution, which needs to pass by a simple majority of the electorate.
People listen to politicians at a hustings in Kobe on July 14. Photo: Kyodo alt=People listen to politicians at a hustings in Kobe on July 14. Photo: Kyodo
Recent opinion polling indicates the LDP-Komeito coalition enjoys about 40 per cent support. The largest opposition party, the Constitutional Democratic Party (CDP), has only 7 per cent, the Japanese Communist Party about 3 per cent, and a further 10 per cent is distributed between various small parties and independent candidates.
Reflecting the long-term trend of substantial political apathy among the Japanese electorate, at least 40 per cent are undecided or have no preference, and voter turnout could well fall below 55 per cent, the level for the July 2016 election.
However, Abe has taken to Instagram to court younger voters, who tend to back the LDP in greater numbers than left-leaning opposition parties, a trend that runs counter to most developed democracies, whose younger voters typically support liberal parties over conservatives. Abe's support among people aged 29 and younger was 52 per cent in June 2019 " higher than the average of 45 per cent across all age groups " according to a survey from the Asahi newspaper.
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The opposition parties have nevertheless campaigned against any change to the constitution and the unpopular consumption tax increase scheduled for October.
Despite modest economic growth " propped up by record debt-funded public spending " and low unemployment, real wage growth remains tepid, and consumer confidence is the weakest since the consumption tax was last increased in 2014. The opposition has also pressured the Abe government over widespread public concern about the viability of the pension system.
Protesters in South Korea denounce the Japanese government's export curbs. Photo: AP alt=Protesters in South Korea denounce the Japanese government's export curbs. Photo: AP
Since returning to office in 2012, Abe has raised his profile as one of the world's most experienced diplomatic leaders, culminating in his role as host of last month's G20 summit in Osaka. Currently, though, Japan's foreign relations are disjointed " strained, in some cases.
The trade dispute over Japan's restriction of exports of hi-tech materials to South Korea appears to be escalating, and the issue of compensating South Koreans for forced labour during Japan's 1910-45 occupation of the Korean peninsula has also soured relations. South Korea's Supreme Court last year ordered two Japanese companies to compensate the wartime workers in a ruling Tokyo said violated international law.
Long-running territorial disputes with Russia and China also remain unresolved. On Monday, Chinese Coast Guard vessels again entered Japanese-claimed waters around the Diaoyu/Senkaku Islands. Russia announced this week it would refuse to enter into negotiations on the potential return of any of the Kuril Islands, claimed by Japan as its "Northern Territories".
In his visits to Japan this year, US President Donald Trump called on Japan to reinforce the US military overseas, and buy more American weaponry " particularly F-35 strike fighters and the Aegis Ashore anti-ballistic missile system. Japanese Defence Minister Takeshi Iwaya has said there are no plans for Japan "at present" to contribute Maritime SDF vessels to potential US-led naval patrols aimed at deterring Iran in the Persian Gulf.
Bilateral trade negotiations also cast a long shadow over the US- Japan alliance. They are expected to end in September, when Abe meets Trump in New York.
Japanese utility companies are preparing to restart coal-fired power plants for the summer, undermining Japan's commitments in the Paris Agreement. The CDP also opposes the restart of Japan's nuclear power plants.
Shinzo Abe with US President Donald Trump at the G20 summit in Osaka. Photo: Reuters alt=Shinzo Abe with US President Donald Trump at the G20 summit in Osaka. Photo: Reuters
This will be Abe's last campaign, unless he calls an early snap poll before the next election for the lower house, due by October 2021, when he would complete his record fourth consecutive term as LDP president.
The LDP lost the 2007 upper house election, which led to Abe's resignation as prime minister. Another poor result could push him to step down early.
Assuming a successful result, though " which would be Abe's sixth consecutive election victory " a post-election cabinet reshuffle might encourage him to cast aside Taro Aso, his gaffe-prone 78-year-old deputy and finance minister. This could create an opening for the party's rising stars such as Shinjiro Koizumi to be promoted to cabinet.
CDP leader Yukio Edano could face pressure to resign if the party's vote share does not increase. The CDP is coordinating with other minor opposition parties to avoid competing with each other in single-member constituencies, but Edano has rejected an approach to merge with the smaller Democratic Party for the People " which was formed after the CDP's predecessor, the Democratic Party, split before the 2017 general election.
Two CDP candidates, Taiga Ishikawa and Hiroko Masuhara, would become the first openly LGBT members in the national Diet if elected, and are hoping to raise awareness of LGBT rights, such as same-sex marriage, which is not yet legal in Japan.
Out of some 370 candidates, there are a record 104 women running, but Japan still ranks poorly for female participation among the world's democracies.
This article originally appeared on the South China Morning Post (SCMP).
Copyright (c) 2019. South China Morning Post Publishers Ltd. All rights reserved.
