Recession is a risk in 2019. But maybe one that policymakers can avoid.

It may be hard to believe with all the gyrations on Wall Street, but the outlook for Main Street is surprisingly upbeat, at least for the first half of 2019. The economy has so much momentum that a sudden U-turn seems remote, economists say.

“Employment’s still growing; wages are picking up; retail sales are strong;... there’s still some policy stimulus in the pipeline,” says Joel Prakken, chief US economist at research firm IHS Markit. “The very near term looks OK to me, but there are some storm clouds on the horizon.”

The divergence between the performance of the real economy and a jittery Wall Street is striking. The US economy, as measured by gross domestic product (GDP), probably grew

Hope for a US-China dealRecessions need a triggerRisks from the Fed’s tightening