Tax Cut Ads Preview Midterm Elections Ahead

Summary 

In a preview of this fall’s midterm elections, Democrats and Republicans are airing TV ads in Pennsylvania’s special House election and in swing congressional districts across the country that stretch the facts about the impact of the new tax law:

• Ads from two Democratic groups repeat the misleading party line that 83 percent of the Republican tax cuts go to the wealthiest 1 percent. That’s not the case until 2027 and only after most of the individual income tax changes have expired.
• Democratic ads in Pennsylvania’s 18th District and other races say Republicans will now “cut Medicare and Social Security.” While some lawmakers have talked about reducing the growth of those programs to lower deficits, there’s no plan being debated now, and GOP leaders say they don’t think it will be on the agenda this year.
• A Republican group is airing a TV ad in 24 congressional districts that touts a “$2,000 middle class tax cut.” That’s an estimate for a family of four with two young children and an income of $73,000. The tax cut would be nearly half that for a family of four with older teenagers. Both tax cuts would shrink over time as other provisions of the law take effect or expire.
• Another Republican super PAC is airing ads in Pennsylvania’s 18th Congressional District that say the district’s “middle class” will save $2,900. That’s based on a family of four with two young children and a household income of $100,920 — which is higher than the median family income in that district.

Analysis

The Democratic Line: Nationwide

The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act — a Republican-crafted tax bill that President Donald Trump signed into law on Dec. 22 — is emerging as one of the major issues of the 2018 midterm congressional elections. Both parties are using the tax law to attack each other, and they’re stretching the facts in the process.

Ads attacking Republicans in three states use the misleading Democratic talking point that 83 percent of the tax cuts go to the wealthiest 1 percent. As we’ve written before, that’s true for 2027 but only because most of the individual income tax changes are set to expire by then.

In 2025, a quarter of the tax cuts go to the top 1 percent.

Republicans wrote the legislation with sunsetting tax cuts to meet Senate rules that enabled them to pass the bill with a simply