The 2018 Congressional Retirement Tracker
Updated on March 26 at 10:57 a.m. ET
If you want to see a political wave forming a year before an election, watch the retirements.
They’re often a leading indicator for which direction a party is headed, and so far, 2018 is shaping up ominously for Republicans, who will be defending twice as many open seats this fall as Democrats. On Sunday night, Republican Representative Ryan Costello of Pennsylvania announced he would not seek reelection in a newly-drawn district that now favors Democrats. Costello cited both the new map—which resulted from a state Supreme Court case over gerrymandering—and the challenging political environment for Republicans in his decision to leave after just two terms. Hillary Clinton carried the sixth district as it was drawn in 2016 by a single point, but Costello said she would have won the redrawn district by 10 points. Campaign forecasters immediately shifted the open race this fall from a toss-up to a likely Democratic victory.
In addition to Costello, several veteran Republicans in competitive districts are calling it quits, depriving the GOP of the advantage of incumbency in races that could determine control of the House in 2019. And more retirements may be on the way, as lawmakers make their final decisions about running ahead of their respective primaries.
At the same time, a wave of allegations of sexual harassment and other inappropriate behavior has scrambled the retirement picture in both parties, and it’s forced several lawmakers to leave Congress early. Republican Representative Patrick Meehan of Pennsylvania, Republican Representatives Blake Farenthold and Joe Barton of Texas, and Democratic Representative Ruben Kihuen of Nevada have abandoned reelection campaigns after misconduct allegations. Scandals have already forced the immediate resignations of Democratic Senator Al Franken and long-serving Representative John Conyers, as well as GOP Representatives Trent Franks and Tim Murphy. More could be on the way as new allegations come to light.
As for those getting out in 2018, Trump’s low approval rating and Congress’s meager legislative output may be contributing to the decisions of some Republicans to retire, including moderate Representatives Ileana Ros-Lehtinen of Florida, Charlie Dent of Pennsylvania, Rodney Frelinghuysen and Frank LoBiondo of New Jersey, and Dave Reichert of Washington state. But there are other factors at play. Unlike Democrats, Republicans have rules limiting the terms of their committee chairmen to ensure turnover and give younger members a chance to advance in the House. Congress isn’t as fun with less power, and six of the departing GOP committee leaders would be forced out of their roles and to the back bench in 2019.
The trend to this point gives a distinct edge to the Democrats. While roughly the same number of lawmakers in both parties are leaving their seats to run for higher office, just 10 House Democrats are retiring outright or have already resigned, compared
