It's Hillary Clinton's Election to Lose
Comedian Bill Maher captured the anxiety of Democrats about the presidential election when he returned to his weekly HBO show in mid-September after a summer hiatus. “When I left five weeks ago, Hillary had a huge lead,” said the host of Real Time. “What the fuck happened? They say the race is tightening. My asshole is tightening.”
That graphic response is understandable for many voters. Hillary Clinton no longer has a huge lead—in fact, she’s trailing in some swing states—although her numbers seem to be creeping back up nationally. Her solid performance in the first presidential debate reassured most Democrats that she wasn't in free fall. Still, liberals who had been dismissing Donald Trump as a blow-dried bloviator now see an electable bloviator—something his Republican competitors came to understand as the mogul won primary after primary. Now the question is: Can Trump really get 270 electoral votes?
The answer is yes, just as it always is for any nominee of one of the two major parties, but Clinton still holds advantages that make this race hers to lose. Democrats know that, which is why the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, the party’s vehicle for promoting House candidates, has been sending out a flurry of alarmist fundraising notes, like the one with the subject line “Kiss All Hope Goodbye,” and the text “TRUMP +3 in Ohio, 538 says if he wins Ohio he’s got 67% odds to be PRESIDENT.” (FiveThirtyEight, the website edited by Nate Silver that takes its name from the total number of electoral votes, is known for its prescient analysis of elections. Its odds of Trump winning were as low as 10.4 percent, on August 14; the day after the first presidential debate, but before telephone surveys reflecting the candidate's performance had emerged, Trump's odds were 44.5 percent.)
Clinton knew the debates were crucial, which is why she spent weeks prepping with briefing books when she was on the road, as well as with practice sessions back home in New York’s Westchester County. Trump aides were ostentatious in their explanations about how little Trump was preparing because he wasn't going to be scripted. All of Clinton's dilligent homework paid off.
In the first debate, Clinton was confident and cool, dismantling Trump's failure to produce
