49 min listen
“MoneyBall for FP&A”: Maura Feddersen on Winning in Forecasts
FromFP&A Today
ratings:
Length:
49 minutes
Released:
May 9, 2023
Format:
Podcast episode
Description
Maura Feddersen, behavioral research manager at Swiss Re, is an economist who previously worked in the economics team of two of the Big Four Accountancy firms: PwC and KPMG.
She got switched on to behavioral economics as “I always felt there was something a bit missing in economics. [Economics] assumes that people act quite rationally…and that was just not the case. Behavioral economics brings together the economics, as well as insights from psychology, to try to assess how humans really make decisions”.
This fascinating episode with Maura, uncovers the lessons that FP&A teams can learn from behavioral economics to improve forecasting and the power of “knowing what knowing what you don’t know.”
This episode includes
New research revealing that investors predictions are only slightly more accurate than a chimp
How new forecasting methods improved accuracy at Swiss Re by 5%
The cognitive biases we need to be aware of that undermine accuracy (such as the dangers of groupthink)
Meryl Streep’s Oscar nominations and your forecast confidence levels tested
How to try and manage cognitive bias
The true economic impact of uncertainty in the global economy and in your business
The opportunities and limits of AI forecasting
Using RIO (Rational Impartial Observers)
The biggest failure in her career
Favorite Excel function
Her biggest advice for someone starting out to get really good at forecasting
Further reading
Actuaries magazine: So You Think You Can Underwrite [Maura Fedderson]
Insurers, take heed of these 3 common forecasting fallacies [by Maura Feddersen]
Recommended books
Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction Paperback - Philip Tetlock, Dan Gardner
Nassim Taleb, The Black Swan, the Impact of the Highly Improbable
Annie Duke, How to decide
Adam Grant, Think Again, The Power of Knowing what you Don’t Know
Daniel Kahneman, Olivier Sibony, Cass R. Sunstein, Noise: A Flaw in Human Judgment
Read the full transcript and blog
Follow Maura Fedderson on LinkedIn
YouTube video
Follow Paul Barnhurst on LinkedIn
Follow Datarails on LinkedIn
FP&A Today is brought to you by Datarails.
Datarails is the financial planning and analysis platform that automates data consolidation, reporting and planning, while enabling finance teams to continue using their own Excel spreadsheets and financial models.
Get in touch at www.datarails.com
For AFP FP&A Continuing Education credit please complete the course via the Earmark Ap, must pass the quiz with 80% accuracy and send the completed certificate to pbarnhust@thefpandaguy.com for issuance of 1 hour of credit toward your AFP FP&A Certification.
Released:
May 9, 2023
Format:
Podcast episode
Titles in the series (100)
Kenneth Fick: FP&A as Influence without Power: Kenneth Fick, had it in his background to be in FP&A: His father spent 40 years in FP&A at Fisher Price. Ken is now Vice President of Financial Planning Analysis at Citrin Cooperman which is a $350 million accounting tax and advisory firm based in Ne... by FP&A Today