What if…China’s diplomacy is more predictable than we think?

What if…another civil war became international?: In this episode, civil war breaks out in the fictional country of Tcherba. The government suspends mediation talks with the Uralanskian Freedom Front and accuses the People’s Republic of Fijikistan of meddling in its internal affairs. Soon, the war is no longer confined to the national sphere, but rapidly becomes internationalised – a common feature of conflict today. Daniel Fiott and Katariina Mustasilta, both EUISS analysts, discuss with Florence Gaub where this trend is coming from – and how it is likely to evolve. by What if - The EUISS Foresight Podcast

49 min listen

What if… there was another American civil war?: In this episode, the United States are in their 8th week of violence across the country, involving urban and rural areas, left and right, citizens and security forces. Nathalie van Raemdonck and Roderick Parkes, both analysts at the EUISS, discuss with Florence Gaub how this all happened – and how fictional is it? by What if - The EUISS Foresight Podcast

45 min listen

What if…Russia clashes with Ukraine in the Sea of Azov?: In this episode, things come to a head in the Sea of Azov: Russia seizes two fishing vessels, killing one of the captains, and triggers a wave of demonstrations in Ukraine. The EU is called on to respond and show support for Ukraine, including by deploying an international maritime mission. Stanislav Secrieru and Clara Portela, both EUISS analysts, discuss here with Florence Gaub why this scenario is already in the making – and what it could mean for us. by What if - The EUISS Foresight Podcast

44 min listen

What if...Russia and Europe clashed in Africa?: In this episode, things turn violent for an EU electoral observer mission in Gambola. Five of its staff are killed in an ambush, with evidence that a Russian private military company was involved. Russia and the EU are now mired in a standoff in Africa over elections, disinformation and, for the first time, European casualties. Giovanni Faleg and Sinikukka Saari, both analysts at the EUISS, discuss with Florence Gaub why this scenario is becoming increasingly likely – and what can be done about it. by What if - The EUISS Foresight Podcast

28 min listen

What if...Covid-19 leads to a decline in remittances to Georgia, Ukraine & Moldova?: In this episode, EUISS senior analyst Stanislav Secrieru discusses with Florence Gaub what economic impact Covid-19 will have on three Eastern neighbourhood states. Will the flow of remittances cease altogether? How will people and states cope? And what can we do about it? by What if - The EUISS Foresight Podcast

22 min listen

What if...Putin mismanages Covid-19?: Russia initially seemed to be doing better than other states when it came to the pandemic, but it has since emerged that the truth is far from what the Kremlin projected. How is Putin managing Covid-19? What do Russians think about it – and what does it mean for Putin's future projects? EUISS Senior Associate Analyst Sinikukka Saari explains it all to Florence Gaub in this episode. by What if - The EUISS Foresight Podcast

26 min listen

What if…China and Russia partner up in cyberspace?: In this episode, Russia and China join forces to enforce their approach to the internet – with far-reaching geopolitical consequences that go well beyond cyberspace. What appears to be a technical and legal battle is in reality a contest of global world orders. Alice Ekman and Patryk Pawlak, both EUISS analysts, discuss with Florence Gaub why this scenario is already in the making – and what can be done about it. by What if - The EUISS Foresight Podcast

35 min listen

What if...the internet didn't exist during a pandemic?: In this episode, EUISS associate analyst Nathalie van Raemdonck discusses a counterfactual 'What if ...?' scenario with Florence Gaub: a COVID-19 pandemic without the internet. From crisis management to problem-solving: would it have been easier, harder, or just noisier? by What if - The EUISS Foresight Podcast

24 min listen

What if…Warren/Trump/Biden became president in 2021 - and what each means for the Middle East: In this episode, Simona Soare and Florence Gaub examine three different scenarios that could be in store for us come January 2021: what would it mean for the Middle East if Elizabeth Warren, Joe Biden or Donald Trump are elected next president of the United States? More conflict, more disengagement – or just the opposite? And what are the implications of the three alternate scenarios for Europe? by What if - The EUISS Foresight Podcast

42 min listen

What if...Covid-19 leads to an escalation of conflicts?: Currently, 43 states in the world are experiencing ongoing conflicts. What impact will the Covid-19 pandemic have on these conflicts? Will they escalate, or is there perhaps an opportunity for peace? EUISS Senior Associate Analyst Katariina Mustasilta discusses with Florence Gaub how conflict research sheds light on the link between discontent and crisis. by What if - The EUISS Foresight Podcast

29 min listen

What if...China uses the coronavirus crisis to promote its world vision?: In this episode, EUISS senior analyst Alice Ekman discusses with Florence Gaub how China has not just survived the pandemic crisis but is in fact thriving on it. From the Belt and Road Initiative to its vision for the world in 2050, Beijing is making the most of a crisis other countries are barely managing to cope with - or is it? by What if - The EUISS Foresight Podcast

27 min listen

What if...Russian society drifts apart?: In this episode, Sinikukka Saari and Stanislav Secrieru explain to Florence Gaub why there is a danger that Russia may become divided into four Russias: differentiated in economic but also geographic terms - and what this means for the future. by What if - The EUISS Foresight Podcast

21 min listen

What if...Africa was immune to Covid-19?: Projections show a possible death toll of more than 3 million for Africa, but what if these calculations turn out to be wrong? EUISS Senior Analyst Giovanni Faleg discusses with Florence Gaub whether we can expect lower fatality rates, what this could mean for the continent, and what needs to be done urgently. by What if - The EUISS Foresight Podcast

19 min listen

What if...Russia expands its influence in Belarus?: In this last episode of the Russia miniseries, Florence Gaub discusses with Andrew Wilson (ECFR) the future trajectory of a Belarus very much under the influence of Russia. How far might Russia go - and how much wiggle room is there for Belarus? by What if - The EUISS Foresight Podcast

17 min listen

What if…China rode the techno-ticket to power?: While technology might be just the sum of science and industry, for China it is a pillar of its geopolitical ambition. In this last episode of our miniseries on China, Alice Ekman and Florence Gaub dig deeper into the role of technology in China’s pursuit of power, and take stock of where we are at – and where we are going. by What if - The EUISS Foresight Podcast

21 min listen

What if…China wants to be a superpower?: As China gains more and more influence on the global stage, the big question is what it intends to achieve with this new status. In this second episode of our miniseries on China, Alice Ekman and Florence Gaub discuss how China has moved from quietist diplomacy to expansive geopolitical ambition, and what this could mean for the rest of the world. by What if - The EUISS Foresight Podcast

22 min listen

What if…China’s diplomacy is more predictable than we think?: China not only has a vision for a different world order, it also has a vision for deploying different diplomatic practices. In this first episode of our mini-series on China, EUISS Senior Analyst Alice Ekman discusses the distinctive methods of Chinese diplomacy with Deputy Director Florence Gaub, explains why these are a challenge for the EU, and how it should respond. by What if - The EUISS Foresight Podcast

25 min listen

What if...Covid-19 impacted the US presidential elections?: The pandemic has hit the United States harder than any other country; and Americans are scheduled to go to the polls in November. Will the coronavirus lead to a postponement of the elections? And in that case what will happen? Will the virus swing the election in favour of either candidate? EUISS Senior Associate Analyst Simona Soare discusses this and more with Florence Gaub in this last instalment of the Covid-19 podcast season. by What if - The EUISS Foresight Podcast

22 min listen

Why… did we underestimate Russia’s ambitions?: In this new mini-series we look at past expectations that turned out to be untrue and try to learn from past mistakes. In our first episode, Stanislav Secrieru and Florence Gaub look at Russia: although people expected the country to be poor and weak, the 2010s witnessed Russia’s geopolitical resurgence. Why did we not see this coming, what can we learn from this – and what else are we doing wrong? by What if - The EUISS Foresight Podcast

31 min listen

What if...Russia becomes 'the Singapore of steel'?: In this episode, Janis Kluge (SWP) takes Florence Gaub to a future where Russia has reformed its economy with spectacular success. What would have to happen for this to come true, what would it mean - and what stands in the way of this being achievable? by What if - The EUISS Foresight Podcast

24 min listen

What is strategic foresight?: In this last episode of our mini-series on strategy, Security and Defence editor Daniel Fiott and Florence Gaub discuss strategy and strategic foresight: how are they different, how do they complement each other, and how are both applied to defence matters? by What if - The EUISS Foresight Podcast

27 min listen

Why… did we not see the rise of China coming?: In this episode, Alice Ekman explains to Florence Gaub why people commonly thought that China was going to become a democracy, or alternatively implode economically. We look at why wishful thinking, but also China’s unique historical path, paved the way for surprise in the 2010s. What would we have done differently if we had seen this more clearly – and is there something else we are not seeing? by What if - The EUISS Foresight Podcast

29 min listen

What is strategy?: In this first episode of our mini-series on strategy, EUISS director Gustav Lindstrom explains to Florence Gaub what strategy actually is (and what it is not), how the EU has become more and more strategic in its thinking and actions, and what this all means for the next phase in its strategic trajectory. by What if - The EUISS Foresight Podcast

21 min listen

What is the Strategic Compass?: In the second episode of our mini-series on strategy, Florence Gaub has two guests: the pen-holder of the Strategic Compass, Jean-Pierre van Aubel, and Daniel Fiott, the Security and Defence editor of the EUISS. They discuss whether the Strategic Compass is, or is not, a strategy, how it is being put together, and why it is important for Europe. by What if - The EUISS Foresight Podcast

35 min listen

Why… did we expect democracy in the Arab world?: In this episode, Florence Gaub is the guest on her own show and explains to Giovanni Faleg why expectations of a rapid democratisation in the Arab world in 2011 were misplaced. She shows that a profound misunderstanding of democracy and transition towards it led to exaggerated expectations which themselves paved the way for some policy errors. What should we do differently next time? by What if - The EUISS Foresight Podcast

17 min listen

Star Trek, Unicorns and looking at the future: a conversation with Maroš Šefčovič: In this special edition of our What if podcast, the EU’s first-ever commissioner for strategic foresight Maroš Šefčovič explains to Florence Gaub what foresight is, how it can help policy-making, and what he thinks generally about the future. by What if - The EUISS Foresight Podcast

21 min listen

From tech to Star Trek: doing foresight in the European Defence Agency: In this episode, Florence Gaub and Daniel Fiott talk foresight to Jean-Francois Ripoche from the European Defence Agency: how is it used, how is it useful, and why science fiction can help get it done. by What if - The EUISS Foresight Podcast

23 min listen

Show me the numbers: how are economic forecasts made?: In this episode, Florence Gaub learns from Laura Bardone how the European Commission conducts economic forecasts and discovers that it does not involve a big calculator. by What if - The EUISS Foresight Podcast

16 min listen

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What if…China’s diplomacy is more predictable than we think?

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