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S2E13 - Is the 60/40 Portfolio dead? [Part 1 of 2]

S2E13 - Is the 60/40 Portfolio dead? [Part 1 of 2]

FromLeibel on FIRE


S2E13 - Is the 60/40 Portfolio dead? [Part 1 of 2]

FromLeibel on FIRE

ratings:
Length:
15 minutes
Released:
Nov 23, 2022
Format:
Podcast episode

Description

Hello libel. How you feeling today, sir? I'm doing pretty good. How about you? I'm doing well, and I'm really excited to talk about today's topic because we've talked about it on the edges before. I'll say it that way. Uh, I'm looking at, uh, the idea that.Investing. In my opinion, investing strategies really don't get more classic than the so-called 60 40 allocation, holding 60% of your portfolio in stocks and 40% in bonds. And the thinking goes that you can get the best of both worlds, high growth potential from your riskier stocks and protection from your more.Conservative bonds, but I was also seeing a report libel that this could be the worst year ever for the 60 40 portfolio. How do you stand on that? Well, , I say, Well, where I stand doesn't really matter. You know what matters is reality, right? ? Yes. And, and the reality is, uh, is that, you know, this is gonna be one of the worst years for bonds and.Here's the thing, right? It's like, you know, people are acting surprised like that bonds are having a really volatile year and that they're all over the place and they've lost more than you know they've ever had in the last like 20 years. But here's the thing, right? We knew this was coming. Anyone who understands how bonds work, Fundamentally understood that this is what's gonna happen, that that bonds were going to take.Now does that mean that people lost their money? It depends how you're invested. It depends how you have your 60 40. Um, and so when we think about these rules that we have about investing, about retirement and what we should do, And especially if you start looking online, right? It's, you know, we, we like to think that, you know, knowledge has been there for forever and that the internet's been there for forever.But the fact is, is that the internet only really came into, into its, um, you know, into being, into being something that had had a lot of resources in the late nineties. Right, And so for most of the life of the internet, bonds have acted a very specific way because interest rates have been really, really low, artificially low.And so all the people who are writing articles online and all the content that you can find online are based on this environment. That we've had for the last 20 years, which is not what we're existing right now. It's not what we're experiencing right now. And anyone who was invested, you know, at any period of time where interest rates were on the rise, where interest rates were being volatile and there was uncertainty about the future or inflation.Would know that this is what was gonna happen. And unfortunately, uh, there's, you know, a lot of advisors haven't experienced that themselves, or they didn't understand what it meant that, you know, when interest rates go up and when inflation goes up and. They just stuck with the 60 40 because, you know, nobody ever got fired for, you know, purchasing an ibm.Right. I'm sure you've heard that saying, . It's, it's the safe thing, right? If the SCC comes in, if an auditor comes in and says, Why did you allocate your client this way? You say, Well, 60 40, there's, you know, a whole lot of academic research. Everyone says it. 60 40 is a good thing to have for a retiree. You know, when you think about it, is it really a good thing to have?Does it actually make sense? It really depends on what's gonna happen now and in the near future. And that changes, right? Especially when we have the Fed raising interest rates and central banks across the world raising interest rates. What do you think that does to loans? Right? So our mortgage rates go up, Well, bonds are just loans to companies.Wow. Everybody libel sternbach with us this weekend and we're talking. The 60 40 portfolio, and I'm just so based on what you've just shared in response to my first question. In your opinion, do you think bonds are no longer safe in this regard? So I think that they were never sa, you know, quote unquote safe.I, I don't think that you could treat a
Released:
Nov 23, 2022
Format:
Podcast episode

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