Data trends are approaching Fed threshold for rate cuts
The latest economic data releases this year suggest the labor market remains strong but is cooling and the consumer is resilient in the face of sticky inflation, especially on the services side of the economy. Michael Gapen says the rebound in the labor force, labor participation and net migration played a crucial role in his revised US GDP (gross domestic product) estimates where he forecasts higher economic growth in 2024 and lower growth in 2025. Much of this positive data has led the Fed to delay their first rate cut from March to June according to our US Economics team's forecast. However, equity market strengths should help keep inflation sticky, but shouldn't reverse the downward trend. Productivity enhancements from AI still aren't reflecting in the economic data and we're still a few years off until we see AI's impact.
 
You may also enjoy listening to the Merrill Perspectives podcast, featuring conversations on the big stories, news and trends affecting your everyday financial life.
 
"Bank of America" and “BofA Securities” are the marketing names for the global banking businesses and global markets businesses (which includes BofA Global Research) of Bank of America Corporation. Lending, derivatives, and other commercial banking activities are performed globally by banking affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including Bank of America, N.A., Member FDIC. Securities, trading, research, strategic advisory, and other investment banking and markets activities are performed globally by affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including, in the United States, BofA Securities, Inc. a registered broker-dealer and Member of FINRA and SIPC, and, in other jurisdictions, by locally registered entities.
©2024 Bank of America Corporation. All rights reserved