178: Jobs Grow, Unemployment Plummets, But Americans STILL Bearish on Economy

1: Welcome to On The Market!: Level up your real estate investing with a weekly dose of entertaining takes and expert analysis on the trends, data, and headlines shifting today's economy, so you can invest with confidence. by On The Market

3 min listen

9: 3 Types of Real Estate Deals that Work in ANY Market Condition: Home flipping, wholesaling, and BRRRR-ing rental properties are all solid options in the real estate investing space. But, as most experienced investors know, different markets favor different strategies. In some markets, flipping outweighs the risk of renting out a property, while in others, something like the BRRRR strategy is a no-brainer. In 2022, after two years worth of wild appreciation and huge rent raises, which strategy is the best for investors?We couldn’t have this sort of debate without our buy-and-hold expert, Henry Washington, our master house flipper, James Dainard, and our wholesale addict, Jamil Damji. Together, they each bring their own unique outlook on these strategies and give advice on which is the best to use for certain types of deals. Henry, James, and Jamil bring real-life deals to debate, and you’ll hear how experts analyze properties, even with just basic information.If you’ve enjoyed listen by On The Market

64 min listen

21: A Supply-Starved Market and How Investors Are Already Taking Advantage: Is some alleviation from inflated home prices headed our way? Over the past two years, sellers have taken the housing market for a ride, getting dozens of offers on every listed house. No matter the condition, area, or age of the property, buyers were filling open houses every weekend just to make an over-asking offer on what should be a reasonably priced house. Now, the tables are starting to turn, and as a result, sellers are getting desperate. Interest rates are rising and buyers are backing out of the market by the dozen. Instead of twenty offers in a weekend, sellers are looking at two, and none of them are over asking price. This is good news for home buyers and great news for investors, as deals are becoming easier to come by while the housing market hysteria takes a breather. We brought the entire On The Market panel in this week to see where they’re finding deals, how their own markets are fairing, and by On The Market

58 min listen

6: The Not-So-Scary Way to Start Buying Real Estate in 2022: Maybe you wanted to know how to invest in real estate back in early 2020. You took some time to educate yourself by listening to podcasts and reading books. Then you went and got preapproved, found yourself an agent, and were ready to start hitting the pavement, searching for your first real estate deal. While you were on your hunt for profitable houses, the world started to shut down. Everyone was forced inside, the real estate market locked up, and you thought “maybe I should wait this one out.” Now, it’s 2022, and the housing market is arguably the most competitive it has been in decades. You missed your shot, right? Now you can never invest in real estate…or so you think. Dave Meyer, On The Market Host and VP of Data and Analytics at BiggerPockets, is here with Henry Washington, Jamil Damji, and Kathy Fettke to argue that you should still be investing in real estate. Even with rising interest rates, high home prices, and by On The Market

62 min listen

3: 8 Homerun Housing Markets of 2022 (and Beyond!): When choosing a 2022 housing market strategy, you’ll need a few key ingredients. Things like job growth, population growth, affordability, and new construction are just a few ways to see whether or not a real estate market will stand the test of time. As the housing market begins to see some stalled demand and we enter into potentially “bubblicious” territory, the smart investor begins looking for the best place to park their money for the long term.Back again for our second episode of On The Market is VP of Data and Analytics at BiggerPockets, Dave Meyer, buy-and-hold addict, Henry Washington, head honcho of wholesaling, Jamil Damji, and our resident Californian, Kathy Fettke. This time, we’ll be touching on the latest data and news claiming that the US is starting to enter into a housing market bubble and how demand has sharply declined since interest rates have begun to rise.We also share our favorite 2022 housing market picks for by On The Market

61 min listen

7: The Economic “Power Shift” Happening in 2022: Gas prices, unemployment rates, and home sales have been headlining topics for the past two years. Every other day we’re hearing about a record surge in a certain type of asset, leaving many investors wondering when this market madness will come to an end. To help us understand a bit more about the economic indicators affecting our daily lives, we invited Planet Money and The Indicator’s Stacey Vanek Smith on the show.Stacey has an enormous presence in the economic podcasting world and has helped pioneer some of the most-listened-to content about what drives and divides our economy. Today, she talks to Dave Meyer and Kathy Fettke about the most important economic indicators that investors should watch out for. Thankfully, she brings news not just about interest rates and inflation—Stacey has some genuinely positive news about the post-pandemic economic recovery. One of the key topics of this show is how work-from-home and remote lifestyl by On The Market

62 min listen

8: 2022 Housing Market Recap: Will It Get Worse Before it Gets Better?: When we talk about recession indicators, we usually talk about things like housing price drops, mass layoffs, heavy unemployment, and overleveraged consumers. It seems like every time you turn on the news, someone is touting a return of the great recession, without much to back it up. Since the housing market plays such a pivotal role in the economy, we decided to have a housing market recap with our expert investors Henry Washington, James Dainard, and Kathy Fettke, to see if their metrics point to a recession.In a strange time like 2022, almost every real estate investor is starting to get nervous. Home prices continue to rise, and inventory is almost as low as it’s ever been, but at the same time, high interest rates don’t make buying expensive homes attractive anymore. Is there still any juice left to squeeze in this year’s housing market, or are we on a fast track to foreclosures, price cuts, and peak buying o by On The Market

57 min listen

15: Renting vs. Buying a House: Which Makes More Sense in 2022?: Renting vs buying a house. It’s an easy decision. If you have the option to buy, you should buy. Shouldn’t you? That line of thinking, according to Ken Johnson, real estate economics expert, can cost you a lot of money. His team at Florida Atlantic University, along with other data–first economic experts, have spent a lot of time studying whether or not it makes more sense to rent or buy a home.Ken breaks down how most Americans have gotten the rent vs buy debate all wrong, how renters can beat homeowners to long-term wealth, and which housing conditions lead to better deals. We also bring in our expert panel of guests to get their take on whether or not owning is a smarter choice than renting. You’ll hear multiple opinions on how you can make a more lucrative decision on your first primary residence and whether being a “renter-landlord” makes sense in 2022.Surprisingly, in a time when more people are being forced into re by On The Market

72 min listen

27: Is My Market About to Crash? The 5 Major Metrics to Look at: Real estate markets are local, not national. When someone says, “the housing market is about to drop,” you have to ask, “which housing market?” Every city has different migration patterns, housing market activity, building codes, and inventory. One market in the Midwest could see price jumps while somewhere on the coast sees declines. So, which markets are getting hit hardest in the latest round of price cuts and which are still on their way up?You’ll need to know the different housing market metrics before making a prediction. But you don’t have to look into the data by yourself. You have Dave Meyer by your side! Dave has been looking at a few key markets to uncover which are seeing home price drops and which are seeing appreciation. Traditionally “strong” cities are getting hit the hardest as interest rates rise and inventory comes on the market. Some cities look like they’ll see double-digit price cuts over the next tw by On The Market

31 min listen

22: Will 3D Printed Houses Solve the US Housing Crisis?: Your next property purchase might just be a 3D-printed house. Don’t believe us? With lower housing costs, immediately replaceable/printable parts, and homes that can be built in six months (or less), traditional real estate developers may find themselves in a pinch when trying to compete against these perfect printable properties. With a huge inventory shortage and housing crisis throughout the United States, 3D-printed homes may just be the ultimate solution nobody believed could happen.As a true believer, Zachary Mannheimer, CEO and founder of Alquist 3D, knew that 3D printed houses would sooner or later become the future. With labor and material costs skyrocketing and real estate development becoming eye-wateringly expensive, Zachary became keen on finding an affordable solution. His team now has plans to build 200+ homes for underserved communities and has already begun expansion across the eastern United States.And this isn’ by On The Market

50 min listen

31: Wall Street: Huge Threat or Harmless Hedge Funds?: Home prices are a big part of the housing market. But not as big as interest rates. As the Federal Reserve sets out to “kill the economy” with rising mortgage rates, researchers like John Burns dig through the data to find out what real estate investors can do to take advantage. John isn't a beginner in the real estate space—his consulting company has been doing this type of work for two decades, providing some of the biggest real estate investors with the most up-to-date information.John isn’t optimistic about this housing market. The data he’s been collecting shows that home prices could see dramatic drops over the next couple of years and that the housing supply problem may only get worse. But, he also sees opportunities for investors that could take the place of the appreciation gains we got all too used to. John’s team participates in over nine hundred consulting studies a year, meaning if there’s one person who knows what’s h by On The Market

52 min listen

26: Rates Drop Below 5%, Opendoor’s $62M Mistake, and Jamil’s Dead Deal: Interest rates are dipping below five percent, hedge funds and institutional investors are starting to sell off their homes, and inexperienced syndicators are getting stuck with bad deals. Is this the everyday investor’s version of a miracle? Nope, it’s just another week in the wild 2022 housing market! Joining us is the entire On The Market panel to talk about which up-to-date, hard-hitting stories affect investors the most.To start, we’ll talk about Invitation Homes, one of the most prominent institutional real estate companies, and how they’re being accused of using unpermitted work to renovate their recent acquisitions. Within the same vein, Opendoor, another institutional investor, was fined a whopping $62M for “deceptive marketing”, but did they really make promises they couldn’t keep? Don’t worry, this isn’t an entirely iBuyer-only episode.Our last two stories cover commercial real estate and interest rates by On The Market

58 min listen

10: How to Prepare for a Recession (and Profit!) in 2022: One man knows how to prepare for a recession arguably better than anyone else. He’s been able to build wealth during multiple different economic cycles, not only surviving but thriving in the process. With decades of experience in real estate investing, advising, and mentoring, J Scott, author of Recession-Proof Real Estate Investing, stands as a testament that not everyone gets washed away when an economic tsunami comes crashing down.We spend some time asking J about how we got to the current economic stage we’re in, what the economy looks like today, and how we can prepare ourselves for the future of high interest rates, falling asset prices, and real estate steals of the century. If you’re feeling anxious about investing in 2022, J Scott is the guest you should listen to. For our due diligence portion of the show, we’ll be asking James Dainard, Jamil Damji, and Kathy Fettke all about recession prep and rebalancing your real e by On The Market

64 min listen

11: Migration, Inflation, and Why Big Cities Are Losing Their "Desirable" Status: Over the past two years, home prices have looked as if they’re never going to drop. With record-low interest rates, a newly formed remote work culture, and millennials at peak homebuying age, who would have thought that lower home prices would come so soon. Although traditionally affordable areas of the United State are still teetering on “overpriced” status, many high-priced markets are seeing negative population growth, and home prices are getting hit as a result.This is just one of the topics we touch on in our in-depth interview with Redfin’s Deputy Chief Economist, Taylor Marr. Taylor, like our own Dave Meyer, spends his days digging through the most important real estate data around. Whether it’s housing market updates, inflation and interest rate changes, or migration patterns, Taylor is on it long before you read one of his team’s excellent articles. As a key member of one of the leading companies by On The Market

58 min listen

25: How Work-From-Home “Hotspots” Drove the Housing Market Even Higher: What do work-from-home employees and the housing market have to do with each other? Surprisingly, a lot. At the start of 2020, as the first lockdowns were rolling in, many companies made the wise decision to allow their workers to temporarily work-from-home. As temporary became seemingly eternal, more employers started developing permanent work-from-home regulations, allowing employees to, on average, work at their residence for about half of the workweek.With this enhanced flexibility, employees were more likely to move to places their jobs didn’t confine them to. If they were used to snow and sleet, they may have moved to Arizona, Texas, or Florida. If they were stuck in urban areas like New York City and San Francisco, the more suburban allure of Boise, Denver, or Raleigh pulled them even closer. Now, these high-paid, location-flexible workers were on the hunt for houses. And as a result, home prices skyrocketed by On The Market

35 min listen

16: What to Invest in During a Recession (2022 Edition) by On The Market

41 min listen

5: Cash Flow is Starting to Disappear: Is It Even Worth Chasing?: Cash flow vs. appreciation has been a fiercely fought debate between many real estate investors for decades. Cash flow investors love to tout the fact that consistent rental property profits allow you a life of freedom, while appreciation investors argue that cash flow doesn’t build wealth, it merely keeps you treading water. There’s arguably no better panel to ask about this topic than America’s best wholesaler, investor, and flipper trio—James Dainard, Jamil Damji, and Kathy Fettke. James, Jamil, and Kathy have a view on the appreciation vs. cash flow topic that most investors don’t possess. All three of these investors have bought, sold, and held real estate before, during, and after the great recession, meaning they aren’t subject to the 2020 and beyond “hot housing market” stigma many new investors fall into. They’ve seen what a good, bad, and ugly housing market can look like, and, unsurprisingly, they reach almost by On The Market

60 min listen

13: Why Investors MUST Change The Way They Buy Real Estate in 2022 by On The Market

62 min listen

19: Is The Stock Market Drop an Opportunity for Real Estate Investors?: Does a stock market crash affect real estate? We’ve seen home prices hit record growth over the past two years, with a slight slowdown happening right now. But nothing in the real estate market compares to the stock market selloff that has happened over the past six months. Index funds are down over twenty percent year to date, tech companies are quickly losing valuation, and the stock market doesn’t show any signs of slowing down. Is this an opportunity for real estate investors?Instead of letting landlords try to explain how equities work, we brought on Clay Finck from the Millennial Investing podcast to help educate us on what a good (or bad) buy looks like. Clay has spent years learning about value investing from the best stock trader of all time, Warren Buffett. He’s designed his portfolio to model the trading techniques Buffett engineered and thinks that this latest dip poses some interesting opportunities fo by On The Market

75 min listen

2: What the Average Homebuyer Can Learn from House-Hungry Investors: The housing market relies on many things: market sentiment, Federal Reserve policy, supply, demand, interest rates, inflation—the list goes on and on. For most homebuyers, it may seem almost impossible to crack the code of when (or if) it makes sense to buy a home or rental property. But, as we’re seeing housing market turbulence, we’re also seeing investor activity skyrocket. What do experienced investors know that we don’t?Joining us for the first episode of On The Market is VP of Data and Analytics at BiggerPockets, Dave Meyer, real estate investing expert Henry Washington, builder, buyer, and landlord, Kathy Fettke, home flipping extraordinaire James Dainard, and arguably the biggest (and best) wholesaler in the United States, Jamil Damji.This week’s episode focuses on 2022 housing market predictions, where each guest gives their take on where the housing market may end up at the closing of this year. We also touc by On The Market

61 min listen

4: The Fed’s Plan for Future Interest Rates w/The Wall Street Journal's Nick Timiraos: The Fed and interest rates—what one does, the other follows. Over the past two years, we’ve seen interest rates crash to all-time lows, only to skyrocket back up to decade-long highs at the start of this month. This turbulence has swept the legs of many prospective homebuyers and has caused the housing market to go from red-hot to lukewarm in only a matter of weeks. What’s causing these rapid fluctuations and are rising interest rates the new norm?There’s arguably no one better to ask this question than Nick Timiraos, reporter and economic correspondent at The Wall Street Journal. Nick keeps a tight pulse check on The Federal Reserve at all times. In his newest book, Trillion Dollar Triage, he discusses why The Federal Reserve made the shocking moves they did in 2020, and how their decisions affect every American today.Dave Meyer and James Dainard use today’s interview with Nick as a chance to ask th by On The Market

61 min listen

17: Foreclosure Fears, “Emotional” Equity, and Big Buying Opportunities: Will housing prices drop in 2022? There may seem like an obvious answer to this question, “of course with interest rates rising housing prices will drop.” But, that’s not exactly what the data shows, especially when you take into account that 2022 is not a normal housing market by any means. We had high demand, which is starting to cool, but housing prices are still far from affordable. And with so many homeowners enjoying huge equity boosts, is there even a possibility that foreclosures could fill the supply gap?Instead of postulating about what will or won’t happen, we brought on an industry expert who can give a data-first decision on which way the housing market will move. Rick Sharga, EVP of Market Intelligence at ATTOM, knows the data. He spends the majority of his waking hours scanning through copious amounts of housing market information so he can give investors and real estate professionals a true, unbias by On The Market

60 min listen

20: Real Estate Wholesalers: Profit Parasites or Property Investors’ Best Friend?: Real estate wholesaling is one of the most hated, commonly criticized, and least-trusted types of real estate investing. Most people paint real estate wholesalers as those who lie to sellers, incorrectly run comps, and try to market bad deals to unexpected investors. This is all said while top real estate investors around the country continue to buy from wholesalers. So what is it? Are real estate wholesalers a parasite to the property investing industry or are they the symbiotic counterpart every successful investor needs?To put it simply, wholesaling real estate is when a wholesaler will put a property under contract for a certain price, then market the property to investors at a higher price, and keep the difference once the property is handed off. Think of wholesalers as the middlemen between a distressed seller and a real estate investor looking for undervalued deals. In a perfect world, all three p by On The Market

61 min listen

30: 4.3 Million Reasons Why Multifamily is a Buy in 2022 by On The Market

45 min listen

34: Crash or Correction: Are We Repeating 2008’s Mistakes?: Home sales are starting to slump, days on market continue to climb, and price drops are becoming the new norm. Are we on the cusp of a 2008 housing market crash repeat? Or, are these eerily similar signs of a large-scale sell-off just coincidental, without much backing behind them? The On The Market Team wanted to know exactly how close we are to repeating the same mistakes from fourteen years ago, and whether or not the runup in buying activity over 2020 and 2021 could lead to a lackluster housing market for years to come.We’ve brought our entire panel of experts back on the show so we can get an up-to-date read on everything happening in today’s housing market. With fears of a recession on the horizon, buyers and sellers live in fear of what could happen next. But are these “panicky” investors looking at the full data set that Dave and the rest of the team have been able to dig up?In this episode, we’ll compare four of the m by On The Market

64 min listen

32: Housing is Unaffordable, But Could It Actually Get Worse?: The housing market, for most people, seems like an unaffordable investment. For years, housing unaffordability was climbing, but not fast enough to keep average Americans from buying primary residences. Now, combine rising interest rates with all-time high appreciation, and the average renter can’t afford a home in most American metros. But how did this all come to be, and is there a chance that home affordability could get even lower than it stands today?We wanted to know how affordability in the United States compared to other similar countries around the world. Although most Americans would call today’s real estate market completely unaffordable, the data seems to point to something different. There are numerous real estate markets around the country boasting low home prices, high rents, and population growth to support any investment decision. But where are these markets?Dave does his best in this episode to give you a by On The Market

34 min listen

23: 2022 Recession Recap: Falling GDP, High Inflation, & More Uncertainty Ahead: The US economy has seen a couple of recessions over the past two decades. The most brutal one being the great recession, which remains an anomalous event. Fast forward twelve or so years, and we entered into the 2020 recession, one of the fastest recessions ever recorded that resulted in a massive run-up of stock, crypto, and real estate prices. Now, as a recession looms on the horizon, Americans are struggling to figure out whether or not we’re about to hit a short-term speed bump or a long-term depression.So many different economists, newscasters, and financial bloggers love to debate whether or not we’re truly in a recession. By definition, we should be, but the experts are slowly taking their time, trying to calculate the true impact of this latest economic cycle we’ve entered. But does being in a recession really matter? Yes, recessions affect almost every aspect of financial life. Labor slows down, c by On The Market

41 min listen

14: The Crash Predictors Are Wrong, Here’s Why with Logan Mohtashami: The housing market is confusing, to say the least. In 2020, at the start of lockdowns, nearly everyone you spoke to had the opinion that the housing market was headed straight for a crash. Not only was this wrong, but it was the opposite of what the data was saying. While mainstream news outlets and “2008 crash bros” were painting a picture of foreclosures, price drops, and bottomed-out demand, Logan Mohtashami was singing a far different tune. Logan had been looking diligently at the data (like he does most days over at HousingWire) and he saw patterns that didn’t at all reflect the last recession. Instead, Logan predicted a runup in prices, hot buyer demand, and very low rates of foreclosures. In a time when almost everyone with a public voice was calling for an apocalyptic housing scene, Logan predicted much differently. Now, two or so years later, we can see just how right he was. We’ve brought this beloved data- by On The Market

61 min listen

41: Even As Rates Rise, Builders Aren’t Worried About an “Overbuilding” Problem: The 2020-caused supply chain shortage went from bad to worse over the span of just a month. By the summer of 2020, builders were facing massive delays, a lack of labor, and material prices that made new homes look almost comically unaffordable. Lumber skyrocketed in price, basic building materials sat on ships for weeks, even months at times, and subcontractors left to get paid more by working for themselves. Is this nightmare finally over for the new construction industry?Joining us today is build-to-rent expert Chris Funk from Southern Impression Homes. Chris got into real estate investing around the same time as the last crash. He was buying foreclosed homes off the courthouse steps, then later built a property management company and a new development company he still owns and operates today. He realized that buying new build homes as rental properties significantly reduced his maintenance and managemen by On The Market

59 min listen

29: Creative Financing: 2022’s Antidote to High Interest Rates by On The Market

74 min listen

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178: Jobs Grow, Unemployment Plummets, But Americans STILL Bearish on Economy

178: Jobs Grow, Unemployment Plummets, But Americans STILL Bearish on Economy

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