Spiking US long yields a dangerous moment for markets

Bad news is good news, or so the market thinks: Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/3L3UV7k - Bad news was good news yesterday as significantly weaker than estimated US August consumer confidence and July JOLTS jobs opening pushed the US 10-year yield lower lifting equities, and especially the cy... by Saxo Market Call

11 min listen

Fixed-income: The uptrend in bond yields remains, watch our for the BTP-Bund spread: The US bond market reaction to events in Israel over the weekend was delayed because of yesterday's closed US markets, but today bond trading has resumed and the initial reaction was lower bond yields. However, the longer end US bond yields have alre... by Saxo Market Call

16 min listen

Macro and FX: Could soft landing hopes slow down USD rally?: First episode in our new podcast format with Charu Chanana talking about macroeconomic topics and currencies. We talk about Friday's Nonfarm Payrolls figures underpinning the soft landing narrative ahead of potential stagflation concerns later this y... by Saxo Market Call

16 min listen

’Peak rates’ narrative continues to underpin momentum: Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/3L3q2zG - Momentum in equities is extending as 'peak rates' narrative gets stronger amid weakening macro data suggesting that tighter monetary policies are beginning to have an impact on the economy. We expect the... by Saxo Market Call

17 min listen

Commodities: What does a Fed soft landing mean for commodities?: In today's podcast on commodities we discuss the FOMC rate decision and what the Fed's soft landing outlook means for commodities. We discuss everything from the opportunities in gold as a hedge against monetary policy mistakes, tightness in energy m... by Saxo Market Call

18 min listen

Equities: Red flags in IPOs, low volatility in US equities, and earnings to watch: With the market waiting for central bank rate decisions this week we take a step back and zoom in other parts of the equity market. We discuss the several red flags in the Instacart IPO and the extremely elevated forward valuation of Arm which is thr... by Saxo Market Call

16 min listen

Macro and FX: King Dollar, pressures on China, and will ECB hike?: In today's podcast on macro and FX we discuss the ongoing strength of USD which is a function of relative weakness in Europe and China, and to what extent the US inflation report on Wednesday will impact the USD trade. China has been in focus a lot l... by Saxo Market Call

19 min listen

Fixed-income: Peak rates and the impacts: In today's fixed income focused podcast we take a closer look at recent developments, especially the emerging focus on peak rates and its potential impact on yields and short-term rates. Also what are corporate bonds telling us, and finally we explai... by Saxo Market Call

17 min listen

Macro and FX: Can the higher for longer narrative continue?: Last week ended with both equities and bonds lower following the Fed's hawkish message with rates staying higher for longer to deal with inflation and the strong economy which lifted the longer end of the US yield curve. This week key event risks to ... by Saxo Market Call

19 min listen

Macro and FX: Central banks bonanza this week: A big week ahead for financial markets with central bank decisions from the Fed, BoE, and BoJ with the market expecting no change from the Fed and BoJ, while BoE is expected to follow the ECB decision from last week hiking 25 bps. The economic landsc... by Saxo Market Call

17 min listen

Commodities: Oil rally raises stagflation risks and yuan’s correlation to copper: Brent crude is marching on as Saudi Arabia keeps the oil market tight raising the risks of stagflation in both Europe and the US. Will the current oil price curtail demand and will China begin tapping into its reserves? Copper has recently been suppo... by Saxo Market Call

17 min listen

Equities: EV ecosystem, Adobe earnings, and AI washing: In today's podcast on equities we talk about the growing electric vehicles ecosystem of recycling and charging, Adobe's earnings Thursday next week which will be important for sentiment on AI-related stocks, and finally we talk about next week's IPO ... by Saxo Market Call

16 min listen

Fixed-income: A hawkish pause from ECB and attractive risk-reward in bonds: In today's podcast on fixed-income we preview the ECB rate decision on Thursday on the back of a recent stagflation outlook from the EU Commission making the policy decision a difficult one. We argue for a hawkish pause with the potential move by the... by Saxo Market Call

17 min listen

Will US jobs report extend current momentum?: Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/3L6i4WN - Markets are calm ahead of today's US August Nonfarm Payrolls report which is expected to show continuous job gains in the US economy. In today's podcast we discuss the positive week in global equities le... by Saxo Market Call

19 min listen

Fixed-income: ECB pause, Treasury auctions, and yield curve positioning: The ECB is expected to maintain its policy rate on Thursday but the room for maneuver is tight for the ECB with the European economy in contraction and inflation remaining stubbornly high. Add to this rising US bond yields, potential tweak to BoJ yie... by Saxo Market Call

19 min listen

Equities: Key earnings, green transformation meltdown, and Q3 earnings status: Today we discuss three things. Earnings expected tomorrow from Apple, Novo Nordisk, and Fortinet. The green transformation meltdown that just continues every month with Orsted as the key example today down 16%. Finally, we discuss the earnings season... by Saxo Market Call

18 min listen

Commodities: Gold likes peak rates and is the oil market running out of steam?: Falling bond yields the past week and the market positioning itself for 'peak rates' have seen gold bid. We discuss the different aspect of why gold could extend its momentum and what to look out for. The terrible developments in the Middle East have... by Saxo Market Call

19 min listen

Commodities: Crude’s artificial tightness, uranium and gold in focus: In today's podcast on commodities with discuss the recent rise in oil prices driven by an artificial tightness and what it means for the oil industry but also the economy. Our nuclear power equity theme basket was the performance winner August and to... by Saxo Market Call

17 min listen

Equities: Energy on the move, Europe’s ”EV war” with China, and FedEx earnings: Oil prices are moving higher on Saudi Arabia's oil production cuts. This is naturally adding tailwinds to energy stocks which are quickly catching up with the rest of the global equity market. We discuss energy stocks and their attractive valuations.... by Saxo Market Call

16 min listen

Fixed-income: How much higher can bond yields go?: In today's episode covering fixed-income we aim to answer the crucial question of how much higher bond yields can go given the latest move higher in the US 10-year yield putting pressure on equities. If energy prices remain bullish and economic data ... by Saxo Market Call

17 min listen

Commodities: Gold defies rising bond yields, but why?: Today we talk about rising gold prices despite rising yields in a move that smells of investors seeking hedging for a financial system in which something could soon break due to rising bond yields. We also talk about the oil market and how it is perc... by Saxo Market Call

16 min listen

Spiking US long yields a dangerous moment for markets: Today features Saxo CIO Steen Jakobsen as we quickly discuss the dynamics driving the spike higher in long US treasury yields (and yields around the world). This sharp rise in real yields at the long end of the curve to remarkable new highs is creat... by Saxo Market Call

13 min listen

Fixed-income: The US 10-year yield is on the loose: The US 10-year yield is breaking on a combination of improved economic activity in the US since May and recently a rally in oil lifting energy prices and inflation expectations. We talk about the upside and downside case on bonds, and finally we talk... by Saxo Market Call

16 min listen

Macro and FX: USD strength to get tested: The US economy has been the big positive this year defying every forecast but can this exceptional run in the US economy continue? We discuss that and also what this week's US GDP and PCE reports could mean for the USD. In today's podcast we also dis... by Saxo Market Call

17 min listen

Options: How to take advantage of options: Today we discuss options and how investors and traders can use them. We go through an example on getting long exposure to Novo Nordisk, alternative entry strategies selling in-the-money puts, creating recurring income from selling covered call option... by Saxo Market Call

20 min listen

Macro and FX: Potentially a defining moment in the Middle East: We are coming into this new week after a horrible weekend with geopolitical risks rising after Hamas' attack on Israel. The initial market reaction has been equities lower (-0.6%), Brent crude higher (+3.3%), gold and USD spot are also bid. But the m... by Saxo Market Call

16 min listen

Equities: Q3 earnings, China restart, and the robust economy: Today we discuss the Q3 earnings season and in particularly earnings yesterday from Microsoft and Alphabet (Google) with Microsoft being the big winner according to investors as the cloud business grew faster than estimated at 24% y/y while Google's ... by Saxo Market Call

16 min listen

Fixed-income: Keep it short if you think about bonds: We back with another episode of the Saxo Market Call following a few missed episodes. In today's episode we cover what is going on in fixed-income markets which are essentially driving everything in markets these days. We argue staying in short durat... by Saxo Market Call

17 min listen

Equities: Mike Tyson moment, Birkenstock IPO, Q3 earnings in focus: We are back with another episode on equities and with US bond yields galloping higher equities are under pressure. We talk about ways investors can reduce risk and what sectors or themes make sense under the pressure from higher interest rates. Then ... by Saxo Market Call

18 min listen

Special Edition: Saxo’s Outrageous Predictions 2024: Link to our publication -> Outrageous Predictions 2024: The end of the road It is the time of year when Saxo releases its Outrageous Predictions. For 2024 our Outrageous Predictions are titled The end of the road building on the idea, that the wor... by Saxo Market Call

30 min listen

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Spiking US long yields a dangerous moment for markets

Spiking US long yields a dangerous moment for markets

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