I n this Real Estate News Brief for the week ending July 22nd, 2023... what economists are expecting from the Fed, why there’s so much optimism about a soft landing, and what landlords are seeing for rent growth in today’s market.   Hi, I'm Kathy Fettke and this is Real Estate News for Investors. If you like our podcast, please subscribe and leave us a review.   Economic News   We begin with economic news from this past week, and much of that news has been focused on what economists predict the Fed will do at this week’s meeting. There’s basically a consensus that the Fed will hike short-term rates another quarter point to squash inflation, and that that will likely be the final rate hike. But at the same time, most economists don’t expect Fed Chief Jerome Powell to say that out loud, and he has predicted the need for another two rate hikes. But he’s more likely to leave people guessing at this point, as Fed officials evaluate inflation data. And it’s been good recently. The consumer price index or CPI dropped to 3.1% in June, but the core rate is still too high at 4.8%. The core rate eliminates food and gas and is considered a better gauge for determining what prices are doing. (1)   Meantime, the job market remains strong, so there’s optimism that the Fed is getting inflation under control without a lot of layoffs. Last week, initial claims for unemployment benefits dropped to a two-month low of 228,000. Continuing claims were slightly higher but the data indicates that employees looking for new jobs are finding them quickly. The current unemployment rate has been in the 3.5 to 3.7% range for several months, with companies adding more than 275,000 jobs to the economy every month for the first six months of this year. (2)   Home prices are still rising and contributing to inflation, thanks to a lack of inventory and strong demand. And that’s impacting home sales. The National Association of Realtors says that the total number of sales fell 13.6% in June, to an annual rate of 1.08 million units. For previously owned homes, sales fell 3.3% to an annual rate of 4.16 million. That’s the slowest rate of existing home sales since June of 2009. (3)   Housing starts were also down in June, by 8%. But that’s after a big jump in May. The National Association of Home Builders says that builders are busy finishing up those earlier projects. They are also pulling back due to weaker summer demand. Building permits were also down 3.7%. Despite the pullbacks, MarketWatch reports that builders are optimistic about future sales, thanks to the tight inventory and strong demand. Many feel they don’t have to offer buyer incentives, like price cuts, that they were previously offering. (4)   Mortgage Rates   Mortgage rates came down a bit this last week, in step with an inflation slowdown. Freddie Mac says the average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage was down 18 basis points to 6.78%. The 15-year was down 24 points to 6.06%. (5)   In other news making headlines…   Home Turnover the Lowest in a Decade   Homeowners with low mortgage rates continue to postpone their plans for a sale and that’s one of big reasons for low inventory levels. Redfin says that just 1% of the nation’s homes changed hands during the first half of this year. That’s about 14 out of 1,000 homes. During the first half of 2019, before the pandemic, 19 of every 1,000 homes were put up for sale. That means that buyers have 28% fewer homes to choose from now than they did previously.   The data for suburban homes shows an even bigger slowdown. In 2019, 24 out of 1,000 homes were put up for sale. The number drops to 16 for the first half of this year. Redfin says that smaller homes in urban areas are the hardest to find with just 11 out of 1,000 changing hands so far this year. And California has the lowest turnover rate of all with just 6 out of 1,000 homes available for sale in places like San Jose, Oakland, and San Diego. (6)   Single-Family Rent Growth Still Slowing but Positive   Sing