Nuclear war is arguably the ultimate lose-lose game. But how plausible is it in this day and age, and what have we learned from living the last ~70 years under the nuclear shadow? Is there a way to permanently escape it?
This is the topic of today’s conversation with Carl Robichaud, one of the world’s leading experts on nuclear security. We dig into everything from the current Russia/Ukraine conflict, the game theory of escalation and deterrence, to successful coordination mechanisms and de-escalation strategies that seem to have kept nuclear war at bay. We also explore how lessons from nuclear policy could apply to risks from novel technologies like AI and synthetic bioweapons. 
In other words: how do we escape the nuclear Moloch Trap? 
 
CARL'S BIOGRAPHY:
Carl has worked for twenty five years as a researcher and advisor on international arms control, security policy, and nonproliferation at organisations including the Carnegie Corporation of New York, The Century Foundation and the Global Security Institute.  He currently leads Longview Philanthropy’s programme on nuclear weapons and existential risk. 
If you are interested in learning more, or directly supporting the Nuclear Weapons Policy Fund which provides targeted support to top projects in the field, you can find further info here:
♾️  https://www.longview.org/nuclear/
 
CHAPTERS
00:00 Introduction
02:20 Russia/Ukraine conflict, China & current risk landscape
09:14 Cuban Missile Crisis
14:30 List of other close calls
16:55 How might AI-generated fake media affect nuclear security?
22:08 The Game Theory of Nuclear War
25:50 Difference between fission and fusion bombs
29:40 Nash Equilibria and Mutually Assured Destruction
33:06 Stability-Instability Paradox
34:19 What’s the bull argument for nuclear weapons?
37:45 New technologies/weapons that could break MAD
44:40 How to factor-in human irrationality?
51:11 Moloch and the Security Dilemma
53:35 Arms control, treaties and breaking out of the Moloch trap
56:30 Treaties, Nuclear Test Bans, non-proliferation agreements
01:02:08 IAEA, verification and enforcement
01:09:23 What kind of people were successful at forming treaties?
01:11:05 New coordination mechanisms?
01:14:14 Trustless verification, Zero Knowledge Protocol
01:21:58 Lessons from nuclear that apply to AI and bioweapons
01:27:00 AI Pause Letter
01:30:01 The need for a third Attractor
01:34:50 What can ordinary citizens do about nuclear risk?
01:41:40 Philanthropic opportunities
 
POST-RECORDING CORRECTIONS: The 2023 IAEA regular budget is $396 million, not $300 million as Carl stated. For the police department budget comparison, global IAEA safeguards now roughly equal the annual budget of the Cincinnati police department, not Washington DC's police budget, because DC’s budget has grown so much in comparison.
Carl said the most common US warhead type was 300 kilotons. This is roughly 20 times more powerful than the Hiroshima bomb and about 150 times smaller than the Tsar Bomba. US subs carry both 90-kiloton W76-1 or 455-kiloton W88 missiles. Trump admin deployed a new "low yield" W76-2 which is 5-7 kt, or one third to half a Hiroshima yield; these weapons may be seen as "more usable". The largest US bomb in the arsenal is the B-63 gravity bomb at 1.2 MT (or 1200 kt).
 
RELEVANT LINKS
Wikipedia - Nuclear Close Calls
Command and Control by Eric Schlosser
War Games (movie)
Middlebury Institute for International Studies
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Federation of American Scientists
International Atomic Energy Agency
Zero-Knowledge Protocol
The US National Academy of Sciences
Nuclear Threat Initiative
Ploughshares Fund
Council on Strategic Risks
 
CREDITS:
Hosted by: Liv Boeree
Produced & Edited by: Raymond Wei
Audio Mix by: Keir Schmidt