If you’re paying attention to the housing market crash, you should also pay attention to what history says comes next. And a historical deep-dive into housing bubble trends tells us there’s nothing to worry about with the current correction. In fact, what we’re seeing today is a great normalization of the housing market, not a great crash in the housing market. Let’s unpack this.What kicked off the latest downtrend in housing was the National Association of Homebuilders Index, which came in below analyst estimates and fell for the seventh straight month to its lowest level since May 2020. The latest drop was also the second-largest decline in the history of this index. Now, I’ve stated multiple times that the housing market will not crash. This data still doesn’t change my stance.For one, we’ve seen big drops in the homebuilder index below 60 – its critical line – before. Almost always, they’re one- to three-month drops that don’t lead to home price declines. December 2018, March 2016, March 2015, May 2014, April 2003, October 2001 – all periods like July 2022, where homebuilder sentiment plunged below 60; and all periods where homebuilder sentiment immediately and strongly rebounded. The exceptions to the trend were 2008 and the late 1980s. But today’s inventory constraints keep us from repeating those eras. Rather, what we’re looking at is more representative of a housing market that’s normalizing to pre-COVID levels after a two-year period of exceptionally elevated demand. That’s normal and healthy – and positive for housing stocks such as Opendoor (OPEN).And that’s been our thesis for months now. What are the two big reasons behind why I say that? Supply and demand. We are in the most supply-constrained housing market of all time. After the subprime mortgage crash, consumers grew hesitant within the housing market. The lack of consumer confidence and drop-off in demand led to a years-long period of under-building. After COVID hit, demand for homes has gone through the roof (no pun intended). But it’ll take a decade of overbuilding for us to crawl our way out of this inventory hole. So, with ultra-low supply and ultra-high demand, you can be sure this is not a housing market crash.#housingmarket #housingbubble #housingcrisis #psychedelics #rivian #canoo #goev #evs #electriccar #investing