This week's Alpha Trader podcast features hosts Aaron Task and Stephen Alpher talking with Jack Bouroudjian, chief economist, co-founder and director of the Universal Compute Exchange, and chairman of the Global Smart Commodity Group.
Prior to chatting with Bouroudjian, Task and Alpher discuss this remarkable rally which has sent the Nasdaq to a new all-time high and brought the S&P 500 back to green for the year. Stan Druckenmiller less than one month ago said the risk-reward was the worst he'd ever seen. Following an 11% rally in the S&P 500 since, he was back on the airwaves yesterday morning pronouncing himself "humbled" by the market.
Druckenmiller's bearishness a few weeks back was shared by other great investors like Sam Zell and David Tepper. If you missed this rally, you're in good company.
Items arguing for a continued rally include a widening yield curve (the 10-year Treasury yield was up 25 basis points last week), and a broadening of stocks participating - financials, industrials, and cyclicals have joined the move in the last few weeks. Items arguing for a reversal include rising speculative fervor - Seeking Alpha colleague Nathanial Baker says FOMO - fear of missing out - has been replaced with POMO - panic of missing out. There's also the issue of the coronavirus, and whether the reopening of the economy might lead to a resurgence.
Asked for his thoughts on this rally, Bouroudjian reminds that the Fed in the space of a couple of weeks put in place more stimulus than it ever did during the many months of the global financial crisis. Similar action is happening in Europe via the ECB. Despite scary headlines in March and April, says Bouroudjian, in his mind there was always an optimism that the lockdowns would be short-lived. For now, that's looking like the case.
As for the economy going forward, Bouroudjian does worry about employment returning to previous levels. Companies have been forced to become more efficient, and that means doing the same amount of work with fewer workers. Without COVID-19, it may have taken 3-5 years for the work-from-home trend to fully take hold. Instead it's taken 3-5 months.
Perusing Friday's surprising jobs report (2.5M jobs added vs. expectations for a loss of 8M jobs), Bouroudjian isn't so shocked. The early months out of a recession, he says, are the easy ones for job gains. Going forward, Bouroudjian expects far softer employment adds thanks to the productivity gains afforded by work-from-home.
Turning back to stocks, Bouroudjian calls himself a reluctant long, noting either the economy needs to get a whole lot better in coming months, or the stock market will take a hit. Not going so far as to sell in May and go away, he suggests hedging in May and going away.
Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices