“A model is just a way to try to predict something, but this got so popular that people just started believing in it completely, and stopped being rational about it. You always have to be a bit sceptical about models that predict the future, they can be wrong.”— Rational RootThe Rational Root is a Bitcoin on-chain & cycle analyst and in this interview, we discuss developing & using Bitcoin price models. We look in detail specifically at his Bitcoin Spiral Models, Bitcoin hodl price models and Bitcoin halving & cycle charts. - - - - Bitcoin is currently in a bear market that the vast majority failed to predict. In fact, late last year, there was a lot of talk about $100k, $200k+ bitcoin that clearly failed to materialise. While bitcoin has experienced drops like this before, this time, the cycles played out differently.So why are we in a bear market? Alongside the wider macro environment of the fed tightening and raising interest rates, Bitcoin was dragged down by the collapse of Terra/Luna and the subsequent Three Arrows Capital & Celcius meltdown (amongst others), and in June, the price got as low as $17,500.Since then, bitcoin has been relatively stable, bouncing between $20k-$25k. Onchain analysis shows that since the June bottom, bitcoin has been under heavy accumulation. The question now is, where is the bottom and have we already hit it?- - - - This episode’s sponsors:Gemini - Buy Bitcoin instantlyLedn - Financial services for Bitcoin hodlersBitcasino - The Future of Gaming is herePacific Bitcoin - Bitcoin‑only event, Nov 10 & 11, 2022Ledger - State of the art Bitcoin hardware walletWasabi Wallet - Privacy by defaultTexas Blockchain Summit - Nov 17-18, 2022 | Austin, TexasBCB Group - Global digital financial Services-----WBD550 - Show Notes-----If you enjoy The What Bitcoin Did Podcast you can help support the show by doing the following:Become a Patron and get access to shows early or help contributeMake a tip:Bitcoin: 3FiC6w7eb3dkcaNHMAnj39ANTAkv8Ufi2SQR Codes: BitcoinIf you do send a tip then please email me so that I can say thank youSubscribe on iTunes | Spotify | Stitcher | SoundCloud | YouTube | Deezer | TuneIn | RSS FeedLeave a review on iTunesShare the show and episodes with your friends and familySubscribe to the newsletter on my websiteFollow me on Twitter Personal | Twitter Podcast | Instagram | Medium | YouTubeIf you are interested in sponsoring the show, you can read more about that here or please feel free to drop me an email to discuss options.