Economic Threats and Opportunities in 2022

FromMoody's Talks - Inside Economics

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Economic Threats and Opportunities in 2022

FromMoody's Talks - Inside Economics

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Length:

55 minutes

Released:

Dec 29, 2021

Format:

Podcast episode

Description

Mark, Ryan, and Cris discuss the reasons to be concerned and optimistic about the U.S. economy in 2022.

Released:

Dec 29, 2021

Format:

Podcast episode

Titles in the series (100)

Join Chief Economist Mark Zandi, Ryan Sweet and Cristian deRitis as they discuss key indicators and other aspects of the global economy. Contact us at insideeconomics@moodys.com. Visit online at www.economy.com/economicview

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Inside Economics Trailer - Mark Zandi: Mark Zandi welcomes you to the “Inside Economics” podcast and discusses what will be covered in the series. Subscribe today! by Moody's Talks - Inside Economics
1 min listen
Jobs Jobs Jobs: Mark, Ryan, and Cris welcome back their first repeat appearance guest - Dante DeAntonio, Senior Economist at Moodys Analytics. They breakdown the numbers in the July Employment Report and discuss the labor force and productivity in great detail. They also touch on the Delta Variant and its impact on the economy. by Moody's Talks - Inside Economics
70 min listen
Monetary Policy and Multiple Models: Mark Zandi and the Moody's Analytics team discuss the latest indicators, follow up on one of their first podcast topics - inflation, and discuss their individual models. by Moody's Talks - Inside Economics
70 min listen
Inflection Points and Inflation: Mark Zandi and team discuss the economic recovery, whether we are at an inflection point, consumer and business confidence and recent performance indicators. by Moody's Talks - Inside Economics
45 min listen
A Booming Economy and Bubbles: Mark Zandi and team discuss the recent jobs report, bubbles, cryptocurrencies and expectations for the economy. by Moody's Talks - Inside Economics
35 min listen
Work and Work from Anywhere: Adam Ozimek Chief Economist at Upwork, joins Mark Zandi and the Moody's Analytics team to discuss the recent job numbers and productivity. by Moody's Talks - Inside Economics
62 min listen
Confidence and Consumer Spending Momentum: Wayne Best, Chief Economist of Visa, joins Mark Zandi and the Moody's Analytics team to discuss the labor market, housing, and Visa's spending momentum index. by Moody's Talks - Inside Economics
69 min listen
Digital Currency and Delta: Aaron Klein, Senior Fellow in economic studies at Brookings Institute, joins Mark, Cris, and Ryan to discuss the current state and future of crypto currencies. by Moody's Talks - Inside Economics
83 min listen
Back to Normal and Build Back Better: Mark Zandi and team discuss the trade deficit, jobless claims, the Back to Normal Index and President Biden's infrastructure plan. by Moody's Talks - Inside Economics
46 min listen
CPI and Census: Adam Kamins, Director of Regional Economics at Moody's Analytics, joins Mark Zandi and the Moody's Analytics team to discuss the recent inflation data and 2020 Census. by Moody's Talks - Inside Economics
59 min listen
Consumer Prices and Cars: Mike Brisson, Senior Economist at Moody's Analytics joins Mark Zandi and the Moody's Analytics team to discuss the latest CPI report, labor market, homebuyer perceptions, and the vehicle market. by Moody's Talks - Inside Economics
66 min listen
Flipped Signs and Forecast Philosophy: Marisa DiNatale, Senior Director at Moody's Analytics, joins Mark, Ryan, and Cris and they recall their own favorite and least favorite forecast of all-time. They also discuss different approaches to forecasting, the meaning of being accurate, and who is a hedgehog or fox. by Moody's Talks - Inside Economics
89 min listen
Rates and Reflation: Mark Zandi and team discuss interest rates, 10-year treasury yield, inflation, monetary policy, and when we can expect to get back to full employment. by Moody's Talks - Inside Economics
39 min listen
Women and Work: Betsey Stevenson, Professor of public policy and economics at the University of Michigan's Ford School, joins Mark, Ryan, and Cris to dissect the September employment report, the future of working from home, and Biden's economic agenda. Also, Mark has a podcast, a YouTube channel, and now a Twitter handle. Follow @markzandi. by Moody's Talks - Inside Economics
70 min listen
Lumber and Labor Force: The economy is booming, should President Biden get the credit? ...and what about his newly unveiled American Families plan? Mark Zandi and the Moody's Analytics team discuss. by Moody's Talks - Inside Economics
46 min listen
Tapering and Taxes: Bill Gale, Senior Fellow at Brookings Institute, joins Mark and Ryan to discuss Fed Chair Jerome Powell's speech and the big topic was fiscal policy. by Moody's Talks - Inside Economics
65 min listen
Jobs and More Jobs: Dante DeAntonio, Senior Economist at Moody's Analytics, joins Mark Zandi to discuss the May U.S. employment report and the state of the labor market. by Moody's Talks - Inside Economics
64 min listen
Debt and Debt Limits: Mark, Ryan, and Cris welcome back Bernard Yaros, an economist from Moody's Analytics to discuss fiscal policy, the odds of a government shutdown, and the debt limit. by Moody's Talks - Inside Economics
77 min listen
ECI and ECB: Kamil Kovar, Economist at Moody's Analytics, joins Mark, Cris and Ryan to discuss U.S. and euro zone GDP along with wages. They also discuss Mark's cancelled flight and the big topic was monetary policy in the U.S. and euro zone. by Moody's Talks - Inside Economics
79 min listen
LNG and Long Tail (It's a Groundhog, not a Chipmunk): Mark, Ryan, and Cris discuss unemployment insurance benefits, Delta variant, and what happened this week in Washington, DC. The main topic is the long-term economic consequences of the pandemic. Also, Mark reveals his favorite movie. by Moody's Talks - Inside Economics
77 min listen
Bonus Episode: On the Road to Recovery: The Delta-variant of COVID-19 has damaged the economic recovery, but we remain optimistic the economy is on track to return to full employment by spring 2023. What could derail this optimism? Could the economy perform better than anticipated? What is the long-term economic fallout of the pandemic? by Moody's Talks - Inside Economics
62 min listen
Diffusion Indices and Deficits: In this episode of Inside Economics, our weekly podcast, Bernard Yaros, Economist at Moody's Analytics, joins Mark Zandi and the Moody's Analytics team to discuss fiscal policy, debt and deficits. We also discuss this weeks data, including inflation, lumber prices, tax refunds and the CNN/Moody's Analytics back-to-normal index. by Moody's Talks - Inside Economics
71 min listen
Once and Future Inflation: Mark, Ryan, and Cris discuss inflation throughout the history of the United States and whether we're in the midst of an era. by Moody's Talks - Inside Economics
58 min listen
Fear Gauge and Frothy Markets: Mark Zandi and the Moody's Analytics team discuss what they are watching to gauge the health of the economy and the big topic was froth in asset markets. by Moody's Talks - Inside Economics
64 min listen
Coffee, COP26, and Climate Change: Emilie Mazzacurati, Global Head of Moody's Climate Solutions, joins Mark, Ryan, and Cris to discuss the global economic impact of climate change, the potential effects of a carbon tax on the economy, and the climate risk policies in President Biden's Build Back Better plan. by Moody's Talks - Inside Economics
68 min listen
China Angst and Container Cost: Daniel Rosen, founder of Rhodium Group, joins Mark, Ryan, and Cris to discuss all things China. by Moody's Talks - Inside Economics
75 min listen
China and Cris Votes No: Dan White, Director of Public Sector Research at Moody's Analytics, joins Mark, Ryan, and Cris to debate the economic impact of the bipartisan infrastructure deal and other proposed government spending. by Moody's Talks - Inside Economics
70 min listen
Housing and Happy Birthday: Jim Parrott at Urban Institute, joins Mark Zandi and the Moody's Analytics team to discuss the state of the U.S. housing market and the supply issues its facing. We also discuss this week's key economic data. by Moody's Talks - Inside Economics
64 min listen
Workers, Wages, and Wallyball: Mark, Ryan, and Cris dissect the October U.S. employment report and what it says about the state of the economy, wage growth, and inflation. We knew there were Hunger Games and Squid Games. Now add the Zandi Games. by Moody's Talks - Inside Economics
77 min listen
Hospitality Jobs and Hurricanes: Mark and Ryan welcome back Adam Kamins, Director of Regional Economics at Moody's Analytics, to discuss the August job numbers, the Delta variant, and economic costs of Hurricane Ida. by Moody's Talks - Inside Economics
62 min listen

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Inflation - Could've Been Worse: Jonathan Smoke from Cox Automotive and Mike Brisson of Moody’s join the crew for a discussion of inflation and autos. The team dissects this week’s CPI report, which while not great, at least wasn’t worse than expected. Mark argues that the Fed should be looking through the inflation data that’s mixed up with the problematic measures of housing inflation and start lowering rates immediately. The team is mostly on board with this view although Mike convincingly argues that it may be better for the Fed to be “credibly wrong” than incredibly right. by Moody's Talks - Inside Economics
78 min listen
Houser on the Green Energy Transition: The Inside Economics team is joined by Moody’s Analytics colleague Chris Lafakis along with Trevor Houser from the Energy & Climate practice at Rhodium Group for a discussion on how the Inflation Reduction Act promotes the U.S.'s transition to green energy. Podcast host Mark Zandi kicks things off with a quick overview of recent economic developments. The conversation then shifts to a discussion of the IRA’s incentives and tax provisions. Following a brief statistics game, the group explores the potential impact of the upcoming election on the green energy transition. by Moody's Talks - Inside Economics
79 min listen
Jobs Friday: On the Couch with Dr. Zandi: Inside Economics regular Dante DeAntonio joins the podcast to discuss the April jobs report. It was something of a surprise, but a happy one, at least for Dante and Mark. The job market remains strong, but is cooling, opening the window just a bit for the Fed to begin cutting rates. But Cris and Marisa weren’t so sure, worried that the report may signal the start of a more serious slowdown. by Moody's Talks - Inside Economics
67 min listen
Philly Thrives, More Immigrants Arrive: The Inside Economics team is down a regular with Cris on the road, but two Moody’s Analytics colleagues, Adam Kamins and Laura Ratz, try to fill the void. Mark and Marisa recap a busy week by talking about GDP, inflation, and even Fed independence. The discussion of domestic migration features a healthy dose of Philadelphia homer-ism, and the team talks about the implications of the recent surge in immigration, along with plans for new population estimates from the Congressional Budget Office. by Moody's Talks - Inside Economics
72 min listen
Rockey on Real Estate: Deputy Chief Economist at Cushman Wakefield, Rebecca Rockey, joins the Inside Economics crew to talk about the outlook for commercial real estate and the economy in general. After unpacking the week’s economic events and a quick primer on outrigger canoe paddling, Rebecca walks the IE team through the different segments of CRE and how they’re faring. Mark goes through a “what’s bugging me about CRE” list but Marisa can only see the bright side. Finally, Rebecca and Cris discuss their views on the possibility of a CRE doom loop. by Moody's Talks - Inside Economics
87 min listen
Debating Inflation Significant Digits: The disappointing March report on consumer price inflation is the fodder for this week’s Inside Economics podcast. The team considers just how big of a disappointment it was, and conclude it turns on second and third significant digits. Yes, that’s what it has come to when assessing just when Fed officials will feel sufficiently confident that inflation is headed back to their target and begin to cut rates. Of course, there are threats to the inflation outlook, most immediate being higher oil prices, which the group takes up. by Moody's Talks - Inside Economics
78 min listen
Bonus Episode: Narrowing the Gender Participation Gap: Moody’s Analytics colleagues Elise Burton, Dawn Holland and Olia Kuranova join the podcast this week to discuss global female labor force participation and how it has changed since the pandemic. They identify a few key reasons for the recent narrowing of gender participation gaps, explore the economic impact of increased female participation, and discuss ways in which policymakers could encourage more women to join the labor force. by Moody's Talks - Inside Economics
65 min listen
Employment, Earthquakes, and the Eclipse: The March 2024 jobs report was picture perfect. Cris thought he had found a blemish in the numbers, but on closer inspection, not so much. Dante and Marisa explained how the economy could create so many jobs without fanning wage and price pressures. Think foreign immigration. And like stock investors, Mark found plenty to like in the report. by Moody's Talks - Inside Economics
61 min listen
Baltimore Port Impacts: The Inside Economics team is joined by their Moody's Analytics colleagues, Mike Brisson and Steve Cochrane, to discuss the economic fallout from the tragic collapse of the Francis Scott Key Bridge and the subsequent closure of the Port of Baltimore. Mark Zandi kicks off the show with a rundown of the latest economic data and a healthy debate on the state of household finances ensues. The statistics game proves challenging even with Marisa providing an important hint. by Moody's Talks - Inside Economics
48 min listen
Inequality, Interest Rates, Immigration,…: Heidi Shierholz, President of the Economic Policy Institute, joins the podcast to discuss the ongoing skewing of the income distribution. There’s a lengthy list of reasons why more of the economic pie is going to those in the top of the distribution, from less unionization and lax enforcement of labor laws, but you would be surprised to hear what’s not on the list. You may also be surprised that the conversation ends on an upbeat note. by Moody's Talks - Inside Economics
83 min listen
Debt Isn't Everything: Listeners of Inside Economics have been demanding a podcast on the nation’s debt, and now they have it. At least one side of it. We talk deficits and debt with Paul Sheard, former Chief Economist of S&P Global. To Mark and team’s surprise, Paul explains why he isn’t worried about the nation’s fiscal trajectory. More views on this to come. by Moody's Talks - Inside Economics
81 min listen
Jobs Survey Smackdown!: The Inside Economics team dissects yet another upside surprise in the February jobs report and ponders the mixed messages between the payroll and household surveys. Employment is coming in hot but the unemployment rate rose to its highest level in over a year and wage growth cooled. The team theorizes on why the two surveys are so at odds with each other lately. Finally, they each opine on whether the data are leaning more toward a higher risk of recession or “no landing”. Surprisingly, they’re all in agreement. by Moody's Talks - Inside Economics
49 min listen
What is Bugging Us?: Amid all the optimism regarding a soft landing for the economy, the Inside Economics team considers what bothers them most about the economy’s near-term prospects. Cris focuses on GDP vs GDI, Marisa on the soft global economy, and Mark on the internals of the labor market. They remain upbeat about the economy, but…. by Moody's Talks - Inside Economics
76 min listen
Bonus Episode: Divergence to Convergence: Inside Economics welcomes back Mark Calabria, the former director of the Federal Housing Finance Agency. We discuss the current housing affordability crisis and what policymakers should do to address it, the FHFA’s response to the COVID-19 pandemic, and the risks posed by nonbank mortgage companies. The group also takes up the role of the Federal Home Loan Banks. Plenty of debate, and even some agreement. by Moody's Talks - Inside Economics
71 min listen
Housing 360: Mark, Marisa, and Cris take a deep dive into current housing market trends. They consider the demand and supply drivers that are depressing existing home sales and pushing homebuyers towards new construction. Along the way, the team deconstructs mortgage rates and provides its best estimate of the nation's housing deficit. Mark challenges Marisa and Cris to come up with solutions to the housing crisis and wonders if we'll ever experience another sharp increase in foreclosures. by Moody's Talks - Inside Economics
56 min listen
CPI and CCAR: The Inside Economics team is joined by CPI guru and colleague Matt Colyar to discuss the bevy of inflation-related data released this week. First the team dissects the Federal Reserve’s CCAR stress test scenarios and laments the perpetually inconvenient timing of their release. Talk turns to the root causes for the inflation of the past few years and why shelter inflation is so stubborn. The team imagines themselves on the FOMC for a day and what they would do with interest rates going forward. by Moody's Talks - Inside Economics
85 min listen
A Veritable Economic Buffet: Bill Adams, Chief Economist of Dallas-based Comerica bank, joins the Inside Economics team to assess the economic outlook and consider a range of economic issues from consumer credit to China’s prospects. We also learned what he is most anxious about, and it isn’t the outcome of the Super Bowl. by Moody's Talks - Inside Economics
75 min listen
Jaw Dropping January Jobs (Redux): Dante joins the podcast to break down the January employment report. Fitting for Groundhog’s Day, the jobs report delivered an eerily similar upside surprise to what we saw in January 2023. Following the January meeting of the FOMC this week, the team discusses what the Fed is likely to do in light of recent data. by Moody's Talks - Inside Economics
65 min listen
Tip-Top Economy, Treasury Threat: The Inside Economics team revels in the great economic numbers of the past week. The economy not only avoided a recession in 2023, but it ended the year enjoying robust GDP growth and tame inflation. But there are threats at the start of the new year, including a potential seizing up of the all-important Treasury bond market. Samim Ghamami of the SEC joins the podcast to discuss this threat, its causes and implications, and potential reforms to ensure it doesn’t upend financial markets and the economy. by Moody's Talks - Inside Economics
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The One About Housing: Robert Dietz, Chief Economist of the National Association of Home Builders, joins Mark Zandi, Marisa DiNatale, and Cristian deRitis to discuss the outlook for mortgage rates, home sales, and construction activity. The team delves into the immigration and demographic trends affecting housing demand along with the 5 L's (Laws, Labor, Land, Lending, and Lumber) limiting homebuilding today. Rob's quoting of Tolstoy catches everyone off guard while the wide-ranging discussion made it difficult for the team to come up with a clever podcast title so we took a cue from Friends. by Moody's Talks - Inside Economics
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CPI, Cyber and Colyar (Colly-yer): In this wide-ranging podcast, we tackle the CPI inflation report, the mounting threat posed by cyberattacks on the financial system and broader economy, and the regulatory response. Jill Cetina and Lesley Ritter of Moody’s Investor Service and Joe Lyons of BitSight join us with their insights. And we finally learn how to pronounce Matt’s last name. by Moody's Talks - Inside Economics
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Catch Up and Ketchup: This week’s podcast focuses on the jobs report for December. The usual cast of characters discusses the job catch-up (not ketchup) in government and healthcare, and its implications. Everyone agreed that despite the considerable cross-currents in the numbers, it was a good report. by Moody's Talks - Inside Economics
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A Tour Around Credit Land: John Toohig, head of wholesale trading for Raymond James makes a return appearance on Inside Economics. He last joined us in the wake of the banking crisis this past March, and made the case that the banking system while bowed would not break. He was right. Join us to hear what John is now saying about the system, loan growth and quality, and what it all means for the Fed and economy. by Moody's Talks - Inside Economics
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Festive Names and Forecast Games: In the last podcast before the holidays, Inside Economics chats with Carl Tannenbaum, Chief Economist of Northern Trust about the economy, financial system, Fed and forecasting. The group took as a good omen that they had a Tannenbaum and a DiNatale on the podcast just before Christmas (you may need to Google the names). Not that they attribute their forecasting process to the use of such signs. by Moody's Talks - Inside Economics
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Slowcession Delayed: The U.S. economy surprised to the upside in 2023 as consumers shrugged off a number of headwinds. With inflation abating and the Federal Reserve facing less pressure to hike interest rates, recession risks are fading. But they can’t be fully discounted given high interest rates, geopolitical turmoil, declining savings, and political uncertainty. Slower growth with somewhat higher unemployment is the most likely outcome. Call it a slowcession. by Moody's Talks - Inside Economics
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Rates, Rents, and Ramen: Michael Strain, resident scholar and the director of economic policy studies at the American Enterprise Institute (AEI) returns to the podcast to discuss the Fed’s big pivot towards rate cuts early next year and the resulting monster rally in stocks and bonds. The discussion then turns to what ails the collective psyche. Think rents and the price of ramen. by Moody's Talks - Inside Economics
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Bonus Episode: Mark Donovan on the Denver Basic Income Project: Mark Donovan founder of the Denver Basic Income Project joins Inside Economics to discuss some early results from a guaranteed income program that provides direct cash assistance to unhoused individuals without conditions. Mark responds to a range of criticisms often levied around such efforts. And you don’t want to miss how Tesla is connected to the start of the project’s funding. by Moody's Talks - Inside Economics
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Giddy to Great: Inside Economics discusses the December jobs report, which left Mark feeling “giddy”, Cris “cheerful”, Dante “happy”, and Marisa “great”. The team considers the jobs numbers in the context of other recent labor market indicators which show a resilient but moderating job market. And they end with an assessment of whether the recently boomy labor supply and strong productivity growth are sustainable. by Moody's Talks - Inside Economics
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Mayer on Mortgages and Multifamily: Chris Mayer, Professor of Real Estate Economics at Columbia University and CEO of Longbridge Financial, joins Mark, Marisa, and Cris to discuss reverse mortgages and the state of the residential real estate market. While the single-family market may tread water, multifamily may be in for a serious correction. Mark wonders if we can avoid the fallout from this economic meteor. by Moody's Talks - Inside Economics
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Jigowatts and EV Jitters: Inside Economics considers the economy’s performance and prospects through the prism of the electric utility industry with the Chief Economist of American Electric Power, Dan White. It was great to catch up with Dan, a former colleague, and get his insight on how American households and businesses are doing. He also ponders the transition to green energy. by Moody's Talks - Inside Economics
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Economic Threats and Opportunities in 2022

Economic Threats and Opportunities in 2022

Description

Titles in the series (100)

More Episodes from Moody's Talks - Inside Economics