The San Francisco Giants might be 46-26 if their defense had simply been as good as last year through this point in the season. FanGraphs estimates that the Giants' defense has been worth 47 fewer runs this year than last year through 72 games. If we take 47 runs off of their runs allowed this season, they would have a +87 run differential, which has an expected record of 46-26. The Giants' current +40 run differential has an expected record of 40-32, just one win above their actual record of 39-33.
Much has been made about the Giants' offense not doing enough, and about whether the team did enough in the offseason to back up a 107-win campaign in 2021. Some of those concerns are valid, but it's hard to look anywhere else other than their defensive issues as the main reason this team has performed so much worse than last year's to date. Their wRC+ is down just 5% and their baserunning has improved, yet their position player WAR is down 33% due to that enormous dip in run prevention caused by defense.
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The best daily San Francisco Giants podcast. Whether the Giants are winning championships or retooling for another title run, Locked On Giants host Ben Kaspick—a lifelong Giants fan and former contributor for RotoGraphs and Beyond the Box Score—breaks down every game, rumor, and transaction in a way that's data-driven and rational but also simple, passionate, and accessible to all.
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