On this episode of the Argument Ninja podcast I talk about the difficulty of judging how much we really understand about the causes of complex social phenomena—even if we do lots of research and self-study. To help make the case I’m continuing my survey of different theories of the causes of the increase in social polarization that we’re currently experiencing. On this episode I look specifically at the work of two social scientists who have written extensively on this topic: Karen Stenner on the “authoritarian” personality type.  Her 2005 book The Authoritarian Dynamic can be read as predicting the expansion of right-wing populism that contributed to the rise of Trump and Brexit. Stenner's work has been influential on Jonathan Haidt's analysis of polarization. Eric Kauffman on the effects of immigration on polarization in white majority countries. His latest book Whiteshift explores how demographic shifts are driving cultural conflict, and how this will likely play out in the longer run. But before I get to these topics, I give some Argument Ninja Dojo updates, do a recap of episode 034, and present a conceptual model for how we should think about the epistemological challenge of understanding complex social phenomena like polarization. Timestamps 00:00 - 01:22  Introduction 01:22 - 06:31  Argument Ninja Dojo Announcements 06:31 - 11:45  Recap of Episode 034 11:45 - 14:41  Outline of What's to Come 14:41 -  23:40 Argument Matrices and the Problem of Calibrating Our Knowledge 23:40 - 25:48  The Epistemological Challenge of Understanding Complex Social Phenomena 25:48 - 42:44  Karen Stenner: The Authoritarian Dynamic 42:44 - 01:04:35  Eric Kauffman: Whiteshift and "Multivocal" Nationalism 01:04:35 - 01:07:56  Reasons to Think We Know Less Than We Think 01:07:56 - 01:08:44  Reminder: Argument Ninja Dojo Discount Coupon Links Links Show notes Click here to learn more about the Argument Ninja Dojo and how to sign up using a discount coupon link for as low as $3/month. Karen Stenner's homepage Eric Kauffman's homepage