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ratings:
Length:
41 minutes
Released:
Oct 13, 2016
Format:
Podcast episode

Description

This is the last of four conversation Gudrun had during the British Applied Mathematics Colloquium which took place 5th – 8th April 2016 in Oxford. Andrea Bertozzi from the University of California in Los Angeles (UCLA) held a public lecture on The Mathematics of Crime. She has been Professor of Mathematics at UCLA since 2003 and Betsy Wood Knapp Chair for Innovation and Creativity (since 2012). From 1995-2004 she worked mostly at Duke University first as Associate Professor of Mathematics and then as Professor of Mathematics and Physics. As an undergraduate at Princeton University she studied physics and astronomy alongside her major in mathematics and went through a Princeton PhD-program. For her thesis she worked in applied analysis and studied fluid flow. As postdoc she worked with Peter Constantin at the University of Chicago (1991-1995) on global regularity for vortex patches. But even more importantly, this was the moment when she found research problems that needed knowledge about PDEs and flow but in addition both numerical analysis and scientific computing. She found out that she really likes to collaborate with very different specialists. Today hardwork can largely be carried out on a desktop but occasionally clusters or supercomputers are necessary. The initial request to work on Mathematics in crime came from a colleague, the social scientist Jeffrey Brantingham. He works in Anthropology at UCLA and had well established contacts with the police in LA. He was looking for mathematical input on some of his problems and raised that issue with Andrea Bertozzi. Her postdoc George Mohler came up with the idea to adapt an earthquake model after a discussion with Frederic Paik Schoenberg, a world expert in that field working at UCLA. The idea is to model crimes of opportunity as being triggered by crimes that already happend. So the likelihood of new crimes can be predicted as an excitation in space and time like the shock of an earthquake. Of course, here statistical models are necessary which say how the excitement is distributed and decays in space and time. Mathematically this is a self-exciting point process. The traditional Poisson process model has a single parameter and thus, no memory - i.e. no connections to other events can be modelled. The Hawkes process builds on the Poisson process as background noise but adds new events which then are triggering events according to an excitation rate and the exponential decay of excitation over time. This is a memory effect based on actual events (not only on a likelihood) and a three parameter model. It is not too difficult to process field data, fit data to that model and make an extrapolation in time. Meanwhile the results of that idea work really well in the field. Results of field trials both in the UK and US have just been published and there is a commercial product available providing services to the police. In addition to coming up with useful ideas and having an interdisciplinary group of people committed to make them work it was necessery to find funding in order to support students to work on that topic. The first grant came from the National Science Foundation and from this time on the group included George Tita (UC Irvine) a criminology expert in LA-Gangs and Lincoln Chayes as another mathematician in the team. The practical implementation of this crime prevention method for the police is as follows: Before the policemen go out on a shift they ususally meet to divide their teams over the area they are serving. The teams take the crime prediction for that shift which is calculated by the computer model on the basis of whatever data is available up to shift. According to expected spots of crimes they especially assign teams to monitor those areas more closely. After introducing this method in the police work in Santa Cruz (California) police observed a significant reduction of 27% in crime. Of course this is a wonderful success story. Another success story i
Released:
Oct 13, 2016
Format:
Podcast episode

Titles in the series (43)

On closer inspection, we find science and especially mathematics throughout our everyday lives, from the tap to automatic speed regulation on motorways, in medical technology or on our mobile phone. What the researchers, graduates and academic teachers in Karlsruhe puzzle about, you experience firsthand in our podcast "The modeling approach".