Discover this podcast and so much more

Podcasts are free to enjoy without a subscription. We also offer ebooks, audiobooks, and so much more for just $11.99/month.

Stats of World Series Streaks

Stats of World Series Streaks

FromLinear Digressions


Stats of World Series Streaks

FromLinear Digressions

ratings:
Length:
13 minutes
Released:
Dec 17, 2014
Format:
Podcast episode

Description

Baseball is characterized by a high level of equality between teams; even the best teams might only have 55% win percentages (contrast this with college football, where teams go undefeated pretty regularly). In this regime, where 2 outcomes (Giants win/Giants lose) are approximately equally likely, we can model the win/loss chances with a binomial distribution.

Using the binomial distribution, we can calculate an interesting little result: what's the chance of the world series going to only 4 games? 5? 6? All the way to 7? Then we can compare to decades' worth of world series data, to see how well the data follows the binomial assumption.

The result tells us a lot about sports psychology--if each game is independent of the others, 4/5/6/7 game series are equally likely. The data shows a different trend: 4 and 7 game series are significantly more likely than 5 or 6. There's a powerful psychological effect at play--everybody loves the 7th game of the world series, or a good sweep. And it turns out that the baseball teams, whether they intend it or not, oblige our love of short (4) and long (7) world series!

http://blog.philbirnbaum.com/2007/06/winning-world-series-in-x-games.html
Released:
Dec 17, 2014
Format:
Podcast episode

Titles in the series (100)

Linear Digressions is a podcast about machine learning and data science. Machine learning is being used to solve a ton of interesting problems, and to accomplish goals that were out of reach even a few short years ago.