Discover millions of ebooks, audiobooks, and so much more with a free trial

Only $11.99/month after trial. Cancel anytime.

Crossroads
Crossroads
Crossroads
Ebook470 pages5 hours

Crossroads

Rating: 0 out of 5 stars

()

Read preview

About this ebook

2050. The world has changed.


But for better or worse?


Using up-to-the-minute scientific research and expert predictions, Dr. Hicham Naim, author, healthcare strategist, and cofounder of Health Tech Without Borders, takes us to two potential futures: one, a utopia of societal progress underpinn

LanguageEnglish
Release dateNov 6, 2023
ISBN9798889265221
Crossroads

Related to Crossroads

Related ebooks

Medical For You

View More

Related articles

Reviews for Crossroads

Rating: 0 out of 5 stars
0 ratings

0 ratings0 reviews

What did you think?

Tap to rate

Review must be at least 10 words

    Book preview

    Crossroads - Hicham Naim

    Cross_Roads.jpg

    Crossroads

    Crossroads

    How to Steer toward a Healthier Society, a Thriving Planet, and a Brighter Future

    Dr. Hicham Naim

    Copyright © 2023 Dr. Hicham Naim

    All rights reserved.

    Crossroads

    How to Steer toward a Healthier Society, a Thriving Planet, and a Brighter Future

    ISBN

    979-8-88926-521-4 Paperback

    979-8-88926-522-1 Ebook

    Contents

    01. FUTURISTS

    02. PATHS

    LESSONS FROM THE FUTURE

    WHAT LIES AHEAD?

    FUTURES, PLURAL

    HOPES OR FEARS

    THE FUTURES GRID

    03. REVOLUTIONS

    RECODE LIFE

    MANIPULE MATTER

    INTELLIGENT MESH

    04. PLUG

    HEALTH X

    SYMBIOSIS

    GARDEN CITIES

    RAINBOW ZONES

    PRECISION PRESERVATION

    MESSENGER OF HOPE

    SHAPING NATURE

    05. ZERO

    FINGERPRINTS

    UBIQUITOUS

    NANOSENSING

    TRICORDER

    TWIN BANKS

    JARVIS

    THE THIRD PLACE

    06. CURES

    TARGET

    EDIT

    HUMAN X

    CYBERMEDS

    MEDI-BED

    SEEK AND DESTROY

    07. PLAGUES

    PATIENT EARTH

    NATURE’S NEMESIS

    PANDEMIC X

    SUPERBUGS

    RIPPLE EFFECT

    SILENT KILLERS

    MENTALEMIC

    08. APARTHEIDS

    BIOSPHERE BASTIONS

    HEALTH GHETTOS

    HEALTH LORDS

    GENERATION DIVIDE

    SKEWED CODES

    09. TRAPS

    BIOHACKTIVISM

    UNCHECKED CYBORGS

    COGNITIVE BUBBLES

    BETTER THAN US

    END OF CHOICE

    GRAY GOO

    HOPES AND FRAUDS

    10. DARK AGE

    11. RENAISSANCE

    12. MEANING

    SEIZE BRIGHT PROSPECT

    CHASE WILD DREAMS

    TREAD WITH CAUTION

    BRACE FOR DISASTERS

    AVOID GROUNDLESS DREAD

    ACKNOWLEDGMENTS

    APPENDIX

    01

    FUTURISTS

    INTRODUCTION

    Think for tomorrow but act for today.

    —Mahatma Gandhi

    As a child, I was captivated by the twenty-third-century world of Star Trek, not least because of the avant-garde medical technologies used on board the Enterprise to help people in space. If a character was injured, the ship’s doctor, Leonard McCoy, could use his tricorder to acquire an instantaneous diagnosis. If someone got sick, the doctor had a cutting-edge syringe—the hypospray, which required no needle and used compressed air to deliver medicine—on hand.

    Little did I know that many of these technologies would become a reality much, much sooner than 2266. The Qualcomm Tricorder X Prize was announced in 2012, and in 2017 a small team called Final Frontier Medical Devices claimed the winnings, unveiling software capable of remotely and noninvasively diagnosing thirteen different health markers, just like Dr. McCoy’s device (XPRIZE Foundation 2023).

    Amazingly, it doesn’t stop there. The good doctor’s needleless syringe has become a reality, too. Now called a jet injector, the high-pressure stream jet punctures the skin surface without a needle, alleviating needlestick injuries and cross-contamination while reducing unnecessary waste from single-use syringes. These devices have been used for vaccines and drug administration worldwide for decades. What’s more, they enable us to provide medical supplies when they are limited, such as long-duration space missions.

    As little as fifty years ago, the technology of Dr. McCoy’s medicine cabinet was thought to be hopelessly advanced, the stuff of far-future science fiction that was centuries away from becoming a reality. But now here we are with that very technology in our hands.

    A striking example of a future scenario that seemed a long way off is the resolution of the protein-folding problem through AI. In 1969, Cyrus Levinthal famously proclaimed it would take longer than the age of the known universe to enumerate all possible configurations of a typical protein by brute force calculation (Levinthal 1969). But, in 2020, an AI program called AlphaFold solved the riddle, sorting through the permutations over a few weeks and simultaneously folding Levinthal’s paradox. Besides simply advertising the staggering power of artificial intelligence and advanced technologies like gene therapy, this technology paves the way toward treating many currently incurable diseases.

    With AlphaFold, we have beaten the projections of the 1960s not just by a few hundred years, like we did with the Star Trek tricorder, but by billions of years. Who knows what improbable technological wildcards the next few decades might hold? Faster-than-light travel? Teleportation? Time travel? We are once more the people of 1969, unable to know what miracles might lie just around the corner.

    Today, we find ourselves at a crossroads, navigating a world that can often feel chaotic, turbulent, and unpredictable. At this pivotal moment, we are in the midst of an era characterized by volatility, uncertainty, complexity, and ambiguity—collectively known as VUCA, a catchall for "Hey, it’s crazy out there!" I certainly feel that way.

    In the past few years, we’ve witnessed a host of chaotic events: the unforeseen onslaught of the COVID-19 pandemic, persistent heatwaves and extreme weather conditions, ongoing conflicts in Ukraine, Syria, and Sudan, the emergence of artificial intelligence, political upheavals from the United States to Brazil, Lebanon, and beyond, soaring inflation, and the looming specter of economic crises yet to unfold.

    Amid these challenges, however, hope and significant progress consistently shine through. The medical field has experienced remarkable advancements, like the approval of revolutionary gene therapies for sickle cell disease, offering a lifeline to numerous patients around the globe. The swift development and widespread distribution of various COVID-19 vaccines bear testament to the combined power of global unity and relentless scientific pursuit. And finally, breakthroughs in treating HIV, cancer, and Alzheimer’s have transformed, in some cases, formerly deadly diseases into manageable conditions.

    But I can’t help but feel uneasy despite so many breakthroughs of late. Concerns over inequality and inequitable access to clean water, food, healthcare services, and medical breakthroughs cast a disquieting shadow over these advancements. What’s the point of this technology if it’s unavailable to everyone? Much must be done to make healthcare more accessible and equitable. Despite technological advances, many people need more support to access care due to financial or geographical constraints.

    The vision of a future where everyone has access to quality healthcare is a lesson we can take from the Star Trek universe, where societal progress is as significant as technological advancement. We made McCoy’s tricorder of 2266 a reality in record time. Why stop there? The wellness of society—and indeed the planet—is just as pressing, and our health and happiness are utterly dependent on that wellness. As you’ll see in the coming chapters, this, too, can be fixed, but only if we take the right path.

    Our choices today will shape our lives and echo through the lives of generations to come, for better or worse. Despite our inherent flaws, I have faith in humanity. In this intriguing paradox lies a cautiously optimistic view. Our unwritten future relies on societal progress and achieving harmony with nature, where technology is our servant, not our master. While technology promises transformative changes, these benefits can only be realized with planet preservation, societal progress, and equity.

    Contemplating everything that could go wrong can be terrifying for some and exciting for others. For me, it raises even more questions. Looking back over the last few years, I often wonder why we repeatedly failed to prepare properly for an impending pandemic and whether we’ve learned anything from this one. Broadly, how much have we learned from the collapse of previous civilizations, like the fall of Easter Island or the demise of the Viking societies?

    In the present, I grapple with why healthcare disparities persist. And I question whether our current trajectory of unchecked growth and existing lifestyle patterns can sustain us in the long run. When I cast my thoughts to the future, I wonder what the world will look like in thirty years. How will our lives change? Will the landscape of diseases, diagnostics, and treatments vastly differ by 2050? What advances in technology can we expect to see? How can we create a thriving society and a more equitable healthcare system?

    This multitude of unanswered questions pushed me to begin this book, writing from my perspective as a father, husband, son, friend, community member, citizen, caregiver, patient, healthcare professional, and pharmaceutical leader. It offers a unique blend of personal experiences, scientific research and insights, and expert predictions. Considering these topics’ expansive and complex landscape, it has been a daunting task.

    Crossroads contains two stories set in the year 2050—one utopian and one dystopian. These stories are preceded by a nonfiction section that explores the themes and issues raised in the stories. For more in-depth and specialized content, I have relied on peer-reviewed publications and research as well as enlightening conversations with experts, thinkers, entrepreneurs, and healthcare professionals, all enthusiastic about sharing their projections for life in 2050. I have amassed them here as a collection of narratives and dialogues designed to illuminate the substantial transformations underway in our society as well as their potential repercussions for you and those dear to you.

    Some of the most valuable insights, though, came from the least anticipated sources. In a dialogue with Agathe Acciardo, a forward-thinking expert and founder of Think Next, she brought an intriguing angle to the table—engaging with children and teenagers.

    Her words resonated deeply: Engaging in dialogues with patients and entrepreneurs is important, but have you considered including kids and teenagers in your conversations? They are the future entrepreneurs who will be shaping our world by 2050. Probing them about these future scenarios could unearth unexpected viewpoints. The perspective of young individuals, particularly those aged fifteen to eighteen, is remarkably distinctive. These teenagers are poised to become tomorrow’s scientists, leading the wave of innovation. As we step back by 2050, they will be at the forefront, navigating the future.

    Her advice was right on the mark. Taking her words to heart, I interacted with my nephews, observed my own children, and reached out to teenagers I encountered on trams and streets. These experiences enriched my perspectives in ways I hadn’t imagined before.

    First, teenagers are deeply cognizant of the challenges we, as a society, are grappling with. From climate change to social inequalities, they are not oblivious to the world’s complexities. In fact, their understanding often surpasses that of many adults, their outlook uncolored by cynicism or resignation. Instead, they approach these challenges with a sense of creativity and optimism that is truly refreshing. Their problem-solving approach is uninhibited and innovative with solutions often grounded in compassion, sustainability, and equity.

    Second, a palpable sentiment among these young people was that their voices often went unheard or were not taken seriously. This revelation was both surprising and sobering. As the torchbearers of the future, their perspectives, concerns, and ideas deserve our attention and respect. Unfortunately, they often feel overlooked, their input underestimated in discussions about a future that is ultimately theirs to inherit.

    The lasting impact of these interactions was a renewed sense of responsibility toward these young minds. We owe it to them to listen, earnestly engage with their ideas, and cultivate an environment where their creative solutions are valued and acted upon. The future is theirs to shape, and our role should be to empower and guide them in this journey, taking their dreams and fears seriously.

    After all, they are not just the leaders of tomorrow; they are insightful contributors to the discourse today, offering unique perspectives that can significantly enrich our collective understanding of the path toward a sustainable, inclusive future.

    So what does 2050 hold for us? While the future remains uncertain, certain aspects seem inevitable. Many disruptive forces will steer our society into unnavigated waters, generating a host of diverging possibilities.

    Remember, we are all futurists, and each of us holds the potential to envision and shape the future. The canvas is still blank, waiting for us to paint our story, and while we can’t foresee it with absolute clarity, we can dare to dream it, mold it, and even attempt to direct it. The journey ahead of us is exciting; to navigate it successfully, we need two essential elements—a curious mind (that’s you) and a guiding hand (that’s my role).

    The question remains, which path will we take? The choice is ours.

    02

    PATHS

    THE GARDEN OF FORKING PATHS

    Who controls the past controls the future. Who controls the present controls the past.

    —George Orwell (1984)

    For many years, I’ve been fascinated by the mysteries of the future and the art of divination. Growing up in Morocco, a country at the crossroads of Africa, Europe, and the Middle East with a rich tapestry of diverse cultural traditions, I was exposed to a range of methods for predicting the future—from reading tea leaves and bones to studying astrological charts and tarot cards.

    One of my most vivid memories is sitting around the kitchen table with my mother, watching in amazement as she used a scapula to predict the events of next week, next month, and sometimes even next year. In the dim glow of a single lamp, my mother sat with her eyes closed, the thin piece of bone held in her hands. When she finally opened her eyes, she held the scapula to the light, analyzing its patterns and markings the way a palm reader would study the lines on a person’s hand. The atmosphere was charged with mystery, and I couldn’t help but feel a sense of awe at the thought of peering into the future.

    While I initially believed that my mother was predicting my future, I later realized she was using her imagination and describing what she hoped would come to pass. Of course, these divinatory practices are nothing more than superstition. Still, they highlighted the incredible power of the human imagination—the ability to envision what could be, shaping the abstract into potential realities.

    Now, some thirty years later, I wrote a book that explores the future of health, but crystal balls, tarot cards, and scapulae will not guide my path. Instead, I will harness signal reading, strategic foresight, and the power of imagination to uncover what might be. Despite my best efforts, however, my brain is inherently flawed. It is entrenched in past events, spending precious present moments fixing yesterday’s mistakes in the hope of securing a better tomorrow. This linear thinking—of past, present, and future—is misguided, and imagination alone will not suffice.

    Workfront CEO Alex Shootman pointed out in his book, Done Right: How Tomorrow’s Top Leaders Get Stuff Done, We need to change how we think about time (Shootman 2018). My goal, and I hope yours, is to break away from the constraints of linear thinking and adopt a past-future-present mind-set. That is, imagining a more even-handed and sophisticated future in the hopes of changing our immediate present for the better.

    So let’s leap forward to 2050. What will the state of health be like then? As I went about my research, it became clear that to answer this, I needed to ponder a broader question: What will the human condition be in 2050? And perhaps most importantly of all: What will be the state of our planet?

    LESSONS FROM THE FUTURE

    It’s just as important to recognize that knowledge of the future is only helpful if we know how to take action based on that knowledge. After all, what good is knowing the future if you don’t know what to do with it?

    —Amanda Rees

    The future may be a mystery, but it’s a mystery with a past. And we can draw lessons from history to help us infer what lies ahead.

    I can’t stop thinking about how often we ignore warnings, only to suffer the consequences. From wars, hurricanes, and terrorist attacks to economic downturns like the Great Depression, we have a long history of failing to act on predictions and letting history repeat itself.

    The theme of ignoring experts’ warnings only to face the consequences abounds in movies—from Jurassic Park and The Day After Tomorrow to Don’t Look Up—precisely because of the delicious, horrified glee with which we like to watch, from a safe place, such mistakes unfold.

    But this is not a fictional phenomenon.

    Take the example of the attack on the United States Capitol on January 6, 2021. I watched the events in disbelief, wondering how on earth such a thing could be possible in the USA in 2021. Over two thousand rioters stormed, occupied, vandalized, and looted the building. The attack left me uneasy about the state of democracy, and it was a scary reminder of the dangers and complexities of the modern world. Two years later, on January 8, 2023, came the storming of the presidential palace in Brazil by far-right supporters of the country’s ex-present, Jair Bolsonaro, an eerily similar echo of the events in Washington, DC.

    But even more shocking is that multiple warning signs were present, ignored, or overlooked. Peter Turchin, a researcher of cultural evolution at the University of Connecticut, published a prediction in Nature a decade before the attack. In 2010, after analyzing historical cycles of instability, Peter accurately forecast widespread civil unrest in the US in 2020 (Turchin 2010). But unfortunately, almost everyone ignored his warning.

    Looking even further back in time, we find the controversial 1972 MIT study The Limits to Growth, which predicted the collapse of civilization by 2040 (Meadows et al. 1972). Worryingly, current data support the study’s findings. If trends continue, we could find economic growth ending at the end of the 2030s followed by a collapse a decade or so later (Herrington 2021). All is not lost, however. The study also predicted paths that we might follow to avoid such disasters, and we might still have time to take them.

    Then there’s the COVID-19 pandemic. Okay, many people are sick and tired of hearing about COVID, but bear with me for a minute. Did you know that Bill Gates warned us about a potential global pandemic after the Ebola outbreak, citing the need for preparedness in a TED Talk back in 2015 (Gates 2015)? Then came Event 201, a global pandemic preparedness test in 2019, which operated on the assumption that the next great health disaster would involve a respiratory virus, most likely avian flu. The trial found that the world was ill-equipped to deal with a virulent new virus unannounced in its hospitals (Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security 2019, 201). Which, of course, is just what happened.

    Unfortunately, these warnings were not given the respect they deserved, and the world was blindsided by a pandemic that ultimately led to millions of lives lost and overwhelmed healthcare systems. I can speak to this firsthand. In April 2020, though my family and I took every precaution to stay safe, my three-year-old son contracted COVID at daycare. Ten days later, I ended up in the emergency room with severe symptoms, spending two weeks at Zurich university hospital battling the virus. As someone with advanced asthma, I was particularly vulnerable, and what had at first felt like a bad cold or flu suddenly began to attack my lungs, stomach, and bowel.

    Without the monoclonal antibody cocktails from an AstraZeneca clinical trial, I may not be writing this book today. I also witnessed the tireless efforts of doctors and nurses working around the clock to care for the influx of patients, leading to burnout for many of our healthcare heroes. I was lucky, but many didn’t have a second chance.

    Still, there’s some positive news in the midst of all this mess. We are fortunate in some ways that the pandemic helped us reset our relationship with the environment and rethink our basic assumptions about our world. We must nurture this opportunity and reimagine the future we want to create for our children and grandchildren.

    But this is where things get even trickier. Preparing thoroughly for disasters perpetuates an age-old problem that some detractors would use to their advantage. On the one hand, if we work to prevent a predicted event from occurring, it won’t happen, and we may think that the prediction was wrong. But on the other hand, if we don’t act and the event does occur, we’re left wondering why we didn’t listen to the warning signs. It’s a catch-22 that underscores the paradoxical nature of predicting the future.

    WHAT LIES AHEAD?

    Earlier, I suggested that we must free ourselves from the constraints of linear thinking—of past, present, and future. To comprehend the future, we must look holistically at the driving forces affecting our planet, society, and health while drawing lessons from our past and present.

    In the face of the ongoing climate crisis, we’re confronted by rising CO2 levels, accelerating global warming, and unprecedented heat waves. This relentless journey, if unchanged, could have dire consequences by 2050, including the swamping of coastal cities and the displacement of millions. Simultaneously, our booming population, estimated to reach ten billion by 2050, is exerting intense pressure on our planet. With the surge in urbanization, resource consumption is escalating at an alarming pace, currently requiring the equivalent of 1.75 Earths.

    Despite dire predictions, rapid population growth is a temporary phenomenon and is slowing down due to declining fertility rates and societal change. Meanwhile, longer lifespans and an aging population pose new challenges, such as a rise in non-communicable diseases (NCDs) and a potential healthcare worker shortage.

    As we move forward, we must confront these issues and consider their profound impact on society, economics, and the environment while steering clear of the pitfalls of techno-solutionism—the assumption that every problem can be resolved through a high-tech approach. Some techno-enthusiasts argue, for instance, that we could geoengineer our planet and capture CO2 to resolve the climate crisis or discover ways to prevent or even cure lifestyle-related diseases without tackling their inherent root causes. While technology carries significant potential to transform our planet, society, and public health, which we will delve into in the Revolutions chapter, it is not an all-powerful solution to our problems.

    It’s crucial to strike a balance, recognizing technology’s contributions while focusing on underlying social determinants and systemic issues. After all, the effectiveness of even the most advanced technologies hinges on the social systems and policies that oversee their utilization and distribution.

    So what does the year 2050 have in store for us? Our world constantly changes with certain trends gaining steam while others fade away, painting a broad picture of potential futures. Where will they steer us? Toward a prosperous utopia driven by technological progress and healthy living? Or will we encounter environmental decay, additional pandemics, lifestyle diseases, and war? Assuming we overcome these major catastrophic events, what will our health status be, and what forms of intervention or medicine will we employ to sustain it?

    And how about our society? Will our societies gravitate toward cohesion, cooperation, and inclusivity, or will isolation, individualism, and exclusion reign supreme? Will our social and economic policies bring us closer or result in more significant fragmentation? What will become of inequality? Will we begin to bridge the wealth gap, or will it only continue to expand? And what role will technology play? Will it be our savior, delivering us from the most pressing challenges, or will it exacerbate existing inequalities and create new ones?

    Every one of these key questions, in one way or another, propels us further.

    FUTURES, PLURAL

    I will never forget the first time I saw Minority Report, an extraordinary vision of a future in which it is possible to predict and prevent crimes before they can even happen. But the future constantly shifts and can take many paths, so how could this ever be possible?

    You must have thought about the different paths your life could take. I know I have, especially when I come to one of those crossroads that seem to offer wildly different alternate futures, depending on my choice. Choosing a vocation, leaving Morocco, moving from France to Switzerland, switching careers, having children: As we make decisions in life, various futures become possible or are lost. Every day, we are presented with choices that can lead us to a brighter future or a darker one, and every decision we make can lead us down a different path with various possibilities and outcomes.

    I’m reminded of Jorge Luis Borges’s short story The Garden of Forking Paths, in which the protagonist, Dr. Yu Tsun, finds himself standing at a crossroads filled with branching paths, understanding that each path he takes will lead him to a different future (Borges 1941).

    Trying to picture the many—indeed infinite—potential futures that might lie ahead would be an overwhelming prospect. Considering the many possibilities of the future, it’s helpful to use mental models to understand and categorize different scenarios.

    This is where Dr. Joseph Voros, a foresight educator at the Swinburne University of Technology, comes in. Voros has defined a list of alternative futures, which he visualized in the Future Cone model. The cone is divided into several scenarios: projected, probable, plausible, possible, preposterous, and wild cards (Voros 2017).

    Let’s use a simplified, two-dimensional model to understand this concept more intuitively. Instead of a cone, picture a scale that categorizes potential futures based on their likelihood. We have preposterous futures at one end, representing far-fetched and highly unlikely scenarios. On the other end, we have projected futures, which symbolize the most predictable and expected outcomes. Between these two extremes lie all other possible futures, each with its own degree of probability.

    HOPES OR FEARS

    Today, most conversations about the future often swing between extreme caution and excessive optimism with several prominent thinkers heralding technologies like AI, gene editing, or nanotech as either a panacea or harbinger of societal doom.

    Some imagine a utopian society where technological breakthroughs grant us something close to immortality, world peace, an abundance of food, and endless leisure time. Others forecast a grim reality blighted by environmental devastation, rampant pandemics and chronic diseases, spiraling poverty, stringent restrictions on civil liberties, and even, perhaps, the collapse of our civilization.

    I’m excited and terrified at the same time.

    Take the example of AI. Fears stem from the monumental power that superintelligent AGI might wield, leading to the potential downfall of human civilization, either deliberately or inadvertently. There are concerns about an Orwellian suppression of the human spirit or a dystopian scenario reminiscent of Huxley’s Brave New World, where people embrace technologies that undermine their cognitive abilities. We should worry, but wisely.

    On the other hand, the promise of AI, synthetic biology, and gene therapy is captivating, considering its plethora of known and yet-to-be-discovered applications that could empower humans, alleviate global suffering and poverty, and aid us in our perennial pursuit of happiness, health, and well-being.

    In terms of the desirability of future scenarios, we can also arrange them on a simplified, two-dimensional scale. On one end, we have futures characterized by extreme caution or pessimism (fears), representing scenarios we want to avoid. At the other end of the scale, we have futures painted with unbridled optimism (hopes) that depict ideal outcomes. The range between these extremes encompasses all other possible futures, each with varying degrees of desirability based on our individual and collective hopes, fears, and values.

    THE FUTURES GRID

    When I first explain the Futures Grid to someone, I usually sketch it on paper, deconstructing it step by step. So imagine we’re sitting together, looking down at the same notepad as I guide you through it.

    As we ponder the future, we invariably find ourselves asking two essential questions: How probable is the occurrence of a certain event, and is it a result we wish for? First, I sketch the two axes we discussed—the likelihood of a future event and its desirability. Next, I intersect these axes to form a five-by-five grid; let’s call it the Futures Grid.

    Each square in the grid holds the possibility of a distinct future scenario. We’re looking at two intersecting viewpoints—the probability of futures on one axis and the varying degrees of desirability or expectations on the other. Consider a future where diseases like cancer, Alzheimer’s, and diabetes are eradicated; this would fall into the preferable zone. It might seem unlikely now but could become possible as science progresses—a desired and potentially achievable future.

    Of course, we’re not short on methodologies and frameworks, so why introduce another? The elegance of this grid lies in its simplicity. It is a powerful analytical and visualization tool, allowing us to map multiple scenarios together. As we make our way through the following chapters, I’ll introduce a variety of scenarios and concepts to the grid. Some of these might intertwine and lead to diverse futures. Remember, these forces could push us in either direction—toward Seize Bright Prospect or down into Avoid Groundless Dread with Tread with Caution serving as our middle ground.

    However, before we explore the myriad possibilities, we should discuss several impending revolutions—technological forces ready to shape our collective destiny in significant ways.

    And so, without further ado, let’s begin.

    03

    REVOLUTIONS

    EXPONENTIAL CONVERGENCE

    Any sufficiently advanced technology is indistinguishable from magic.

    —Arthur C. Clarke

    Electricity is a beautiful thing. It has powered our society for over one hundred and fifty years, taking our probes beyond the limits of the solar system and allowing us to see into the space between hydrogen atoms.

    It is also one of the most effective contraceptives in the world.

    When I studied pharmacy in Morocco, a public health lecture on birth control methods stood out. It was 1998, and the lecturer spoke about how difficult it is to implement family planning policies in remote villages. In one particular place, however, the population decreased. What was so special about this village? Well, it turns out the locals had just received electricity, powering their lights and—more

    Enjoying the preview?
    Page 1 of 1