Transportation for the Elderly: Changing Lifestyles, Changing Needs

By Martin Wachs

This title is part of UC Press's Voices Revived program, which commemorates University of California Press’s mission to seek out and cultivate the brightest minds and give them voice, reach, and impact. Drawing on a backlist dating to 1893, Voices Revived makes high-quality, peer-reviewed scholarship accessible once again using print-on-demand technology. This title was originally published in 1979.

• Language: English
• Publisher: University of California Press
• Release date: Nov 15, 2023
• ISBN: 9780520337749

Martin Wachs

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Transportation for the Elderly

Transportation for the Elderly

Changing Lifestyles, Changing Needs

Martin Wachs

University of California Press Berkeley • Los Angeles • London

In loving memory of Lillian Margolis, from whom I learned so much about growing old gracefully.

University of California Press

Berkeley and Los Angeles, California

University of California Press, Ltd.

London, England

Copyright © 1979 by

The Regents of the University of California

ISBN 0-520-03691-3

Library of Congress Catalog Card Number: 78-63091

Printed in the United States of America 123456789

Contents 1

Contents 1

List of Tables and Figures

Acknowledgements

Chapter 1 The Changing Elderly and the Diversity of Their Lifestyles

The Place of the Elderly in Future Transportation Policy

Demographic and Social Changes Among the Elderly

Consequences of Social and Demographic Changes Among the Elderly

Anticipated Changes in Mobility and Tripmaking Among the Elderly

The Concept of Lifestyle

The Role of Lifestyle in the Study of Locational and Travel Behavior of the Elderly

Chapter 2 Lifestyles of the Current Elderly of Los Angeles County

Lifestyles of the Current Elderly

Observations and Conclusions

Chapter 3 Relationships Between Lifestyle and Travel Behavior of the Elderly

Research Technique for Studying Relationships Between Lifestyle and Travel

Variations in Travel Behavior with Differences in Lifestyle: Research Results

Summary and Conclusions

Chapter 4 Current Transportation Services for the Elderly

Selection of Sample Communities

Identification of Transportation Services

Bus Service

Taxi Service

Specialized Transportation Services

Summary and Conclusions

Chapter 5 The Changing Social Setting of the Elderly

Analytical Framework for the Longitudinal Analysis

History of the Elderly’s Residential Location

Dimensions and Areas of Lifestyle of the Middle-Aged Population

Differentiation of Cohort, Aging, and Period Effects

Conclusions

Chapter 6 The Future Population and Residential Location of the Elderly

Population Forecasting Methodology

Population Forecast Scenarios

Comparison of Population Forecasts with Housing Market Projections

Summary and Conclusions

Chapter 7 The Future Travel Patterns of the Elderly

The Travel Forecast

Summary and Conclusions

Chapter 8 Meeting the Changing Transportation Needs of Older Americans

Recapitulation of Major Conclusions from Los Angeles

The Problem of Interpreting Transportation Needs

Current National Priorities for Meeting the Transportation Needs of the Elderly

The Goals of Transportation Policy for the Elderly

Service Coordination Through a Local Transportation Authority

Meeting Mobility Needs Through User-Side Subsidies

Mobility for the Suburbanized Elderly of the Future: The Role of the Automobile

Conclusion

Bibliography

List of Tables and Figures

Tables

1. Shifting Patterns of Residence Among the Elderly, 1950-1970 14

2. Automobile Ownership in the United States by Age of Head of Household 17

3. Automobile Ownership in the United States by Household Income Level 18

4. Automobile Availability Among the Elderly in the New York Metropolitan Region 19

5. List of Variables Used in the Definition of Lifestyle Groups Among Age Group 65+ 30

6. Factor Loadings of at Least.250 for 65+ Age Group—1970 Analysis 36

7. Distribution of Vehicular Trips Reported by the Elderly by Travel Mode and Trip Purpose 50

8. Travel Variable Correlation Coefficients 51

9. Distribution of the LARTS Sample Across Lifestyle Areas 53

10. Travel Variable Means for the Lifestyle Areas and the County 54

11. Summary of the Difference-of-Means Analyses for the Central-City Lifestyle Area 57

12. Summary of the Difference-of-Means Analyses for the Financially Secure Lifestyle Area 59

13. Summary of the Difference-of-Means Analyses for the New Suburban Lifestyle Area 61

14. Summary of the Difference-of-Means Analyses for the Black Lifestyle Area 62

15. Summary of the Difference-of-Means Analyses for the Spanish-American Community 64

16. Summary of the Difference-of-Means Analyses for the Early Suburban Lifestyle Area 66

17. Bus Service Levels by Lifestyle Area 74

18. Telephone Answering Time of Taxi Operators 80

19. Telephone Order Response Time by Taxi Operators 80

20. Illustrative Taxi Fares 83

21. Summary of Transportation Services Available to the Elderly 88

22. Estimated Specialized Transportation Service Trips Served by Lifestyle Area 89

23. Factor Loadings of at Least.250 for the 45-64 Age Group—1970 Analysis 109

24. Assumptions of Equality Made to Produce Estimable Regressions 131

25. Projected Survival Rates by Age and Sex 157

26. Migration by Age and Lifestyle Area, 1960-1970 160

27. Population Forecast Comparisons 165

28. Migration Forecasts: Low Migration Scenario 166

29. Migration Forecasts: Medium Migration Scenario. … 169

30. Migration Forecasts: High Migration Scenario 171

31. Low Migration Scenario: Population by Lifestyle Area and Age, 1990-2000 172

32. Medium Migration Scenario: Population by Lifestyle Area and Age, 1990-2000 173

33. High Migration Scenario: Population by Lifestyle Area and Age, 1990-2000 174

34. Example of a Trip Rate Cross-Classification Table. … 180

35. Persons per Elderly-Headed Household by Lifestyle 185

36. Projected Count of Households Under Three Scenarios to 2000 by Lifestyle 186

37. Percentage Distribution of Elderly-Headed and

Middle-Aged-Headed Households by Number of Automobiles Owned and Lifestyle Area (1970).. 187

38. Distribution of Projected Households into Auto

Ownership Categories by 1970 Elderly and

Middle-Aged Auto Ownership Rates: Low Migration Scenario 189

39. Distribution of Projected Households into Auto

Ownership Categories by 1970 Elderly and

Middle-Aged Auto Ownership Rates: Medium Migration Scenario 190

40. Distribution of Projected Households into Auto Ownership Categories by 1970 Elderly and Middle-Aged Auto Ownership

Rates: High Migration Scenario 191

41. Distribution of the LARTS Sample by Lifestyle

Area and Auto Owning Characteristics 192

42. Household Tripmaking Rates per Day by Trip

Purpose and Mode, by Lifestyle Area, and by Auto Ownership Characteristics 194

43. Travel Behavior by Trip Purpose, Mode, and Lifestyle Area: Low Migration Scenario 195

44. Travel Behavior by Trip Purpose, Mode, and Lifestyle Area: Medium Migration Scenario 196

45. Travel Behavior by Trip Purpose, Mode, and Lifestyle Area: High Migration Scenario 197

46. Percent of Forecast Travel by Mode 197

47. Summary Table of Projected Total Trips, 1990 and 2000 199

48. 1970 Travel Behavior by Trip Purpose and Mode, and by Lifestyle Area 203

49. Forecast Proportional Changes in Travel over Current Volumes 205

50. Summary of Findings for Los Angeles County 210

Figures

1. The Study Area: Los Angeles County 32

2. The Central-City Lifestyle Area 40

3. The Financially Secure Lifestyle Area 41

4. The Institutionalized Lifestyle Area 42

5. The New Suburban Lifestyle Area 43

6. The Black Lifestyle Area 44

7. The Spanish-American Lifestyle Area 45

8. The Early Suburban Lifestyle Area 46

9. Sample Communities 71

10. Taxi Franchise Areas: City of Los Angeles 79

11. Illustration of Longitudinal Study 95

12. Age Groups and Cohorts Used in Historical Study

of Population Density 96

13. Cohort 4 (Aged 45-54): Population Density, 1940 98

14. Cohort 4 (Aged 55-64): Population Density, 1950 98

15. Cohort 4 (Aged 65-74): Population Density, 1960 99

16. Cohort 4 (Aged 75-84): Population Density, 1970 99

17. Cohort 5 (Aged 35-44): Population Density, 1940 101

18. Cohort 5 (Aged 45-54): Population Density, 1950 101

19. Cohort 5 (Aged 55-64): Population Density, 1960 102

20. Cohort 5 (Aged 65-74): Population Density, 1970 102

21. Total Population Density, 1940 103

22. Total Population Density, 1950 103

23. Total Population Density, 1960 104

24. Total Population Density, 1970 104

25. Age Group 65-74: Population Density, 1940 105

26. Age Group 65-74: Population Density, 1950 105

27. Age Group 65-74: Population Density, 1960 106

28. Age Group 65-74: Population Density, 1970 106

29. The Central-City Dwellers 113

30. The Financially Secure 114

31. The Institutionalized 116

32. The New Suburbanites 117

33. The Black Community 119

34. The Spanish-American Community 119

35. The Early Suburbanites 121

36. Graphical Display of Longitudinal Data 126

37. Aging, Cohort, Period, and Combined Effects Shown Graphically 127

38. Trends in Residential Density 134

39. Trends in Home Ownership 136

40. Trends in Housing Value 138

41. Trends in Apartment Living 140

42. Trends in Monthly Rental Rates 143

43. Trends in One-Person Households 145

44. Trends in Racial Composition of Residential Areas … 147

Acknowledgements

This book is the result of a two-year study performed at the School of Architecture and Urban Planning of the University of California, Los Angeles, under research contract DOT-OS-50109, awarded by the Program of University Research, United States Department of Transportation. The objective of the study was to develop a methodology for determining the future mobility needs of the elderly as a function of their future locational patterns and travel behavior. Although I am listed as the author of this book, the work is actually the joint product of a team of researchers, including several outstanding research assistants who worked with me at various stages of the project. Although I was responsible for the overall management of the project, and for the compilation and editing of this volume, my research assistants participated in every phase of the work, including formulating research strategy, collecting and analyzing data and drafting the research results. Robert D. Blanchard, now with the Transportation and Urban Analysis Department of the General Motors Research Laboratories in Warren, Michigan, helped to formulate the concept of lifestyle and the basic research design. His doctoral dissertation was completed as part of this project and gave rise to much of the material included in Chapters 2 and 5. Chapter 1 is based upon a paper that Dr. Blanchard and I presented at the 1976 Annual Meeting of the Transportation Research Board. James B. Bunker, now with the System Development Corporation in Santa Monica, California, was responsible for most of the computer analysis performed on the census data covering 1940 through 1970, as well as the home interview data for 1967 from the Los Angeles Regional Transportation Study (LARTS). Chapter 3 of this book is a distillation of Mr. Bunker’s master’s thesis. Karen Jones, presently employed by PBQ&D, a planning and engineering firm in Santa Ana, California, collected and analyzed the data concerning existing transportation services for the elderly in Los Angeles County. Chapter 4 of this book is drawn from her master’s thesis. Paul Matsuoka, presently on the staff of Kaiser Foundation Health Plan, and Don H. Pickrell, currently a doctoral student in Urban Planning at UCLA, conducted the forecasts of population and travel that form the basis of Chapters 6 and 8. Mr. Pickrell also prepared the first draft of many of the policy recommendations included in the final chapter. Marilyn Westfall, now on the transportation planning staff of the Southern California Association of Governments (SCAG), also participated in many phases of the research, especially in the longitudinal analysis. Carrie Chassin, currently a member of the staff of Los Angeles City Councilman Marvin Braude, assisted in drafting the research proposal which resulted in the contract under which this study was conducted. Jacqueline Gillan, now with the Federal Highway Administration, worked with me on some of the earliest investigations of the travel patterns of the elderly in Los Angeles which ultimately gave rise to the design of this study. Jennifer Shoho, an undergraduate at UCLA, participated in the telephone survey of providers of special transportation services.

The completion of this project would not have been possible without the support and cooperation of many persons in transportation, gerontology, and public service agencies. In the data collection and data base design phases, Thomas Smuczynski, William Diemer, Robert Mullens, and Ralph Carlson of the Los Angeles Community Analysis Bureau contributed both data and their time to the research as well as continuing advice on technical and statistical matters. Data from the Bureau were the basis for the longitudinal sections of the study. Several people provided assistance in collecting health data. Professor Anne Coulson, of the School of Public Health at UCLA, compiled health statistics and assisted in obtaining their release to the project. Sol Roschal and Pat Van Doren of the Los Angeles County Department of Health Services compiled mental health statistics. Leo Schuerman and Wayne Hansen, demographers with the Program for Data Research, University of Southern California, provided advice regarding reconciliation of census tracts and data over several census periods, as well as tract correspondence tables. W. A. V. Clark of the Geography Department at UCLA provided acreages for the 1970 census tracts. Travel data from LARTS were provided by Kari Wellisch. Terry Blank of the LARTS staff provided liaison during the data collection phase. Norman Roy of LARTS provided travel inventory data and advice on the trip generation forecasting procedures. Joe Sanchez, of the California Department of Transportation, commented upon the research plan and the draft report.

Staff members of the Los Angeles City and County Agencies on Aging identified for us other researchers in the Los Angeles area whose work was helpful; Jay Glassman of the County Agency and Carmela LaCayo of the City Agency were especially helpful. Pat Sennett, of the Los Angeles Area Agency on Aging, provided useful suggestions and a great deal of information about existing programs serving the elderly. Richard Kawasaki, of the Regional Planning Organization of Los Angeles County, assisted in assembling data used in the population forecasts. Steve Parry, of the Southern California Rapid Transit District (SCRTD), provided estimates of elderly ridership of public transit in Los Angeles County. A special tabulation compiled by Larry Carbaugh and his staff of the United States Bureau of the Census provided data that could not be obtained from any other source.

A number of people on the staff of SCAG contributed technical reports and information used in the forecasts of population and travel, and in the compilation of the inventory of existing transport service for the elderly. In particular, Louise Manuel provided housing inventory data, Irving Jones provided information on the distribution of existing public transportation services in the SCAG region, Marilyn Westfall supplied the initial list of social service agencies providing specialized transportation service, and Mark Zerkin provided information on transit service policy. R. David MacDonald of SCAG served as an advisor and critic of this research for the two years of the project and helped to introduce us to the many sources of information and assistance available from his organization. Figure 1 was provided by the Regional Planning Commission of Los Angeles County.

Throughout the project, we have had constant guidance and assistance from our project monitors in the United States Department of Transportation. During the first year of the study Joseph Meek, of the Office of the Secretary, gave prompt and helpful support. During the second year Barbara Reichart, of the Federal Highway Administration, continued to meet the high standard initially set by Mr. Meek. They both provided creative and helpful suggestions and responded promptly to all of our inquiries.

Although the bulk of the research was conducted at UCLA with the support of the United States Department of Transportation, the final manuscript was prepared during the fall of 1977 while I was on sabbatical leave at the Transport Studies Unit of Oxford University, in England. I am grateful to the Unit and its director, Ian Heggie, for providing me with the pleasant environment in which it was possible to complete this research. A fellowship from the John Simon Guggenheim Memorial Foundation provided the travel and expense support necessary to complete this manuscript while on sabbatical.

Laurel Kelly typed the early manuscript virtually flawlessly and made a great contribution to the style and format of the document, as well as the compilation of the bibliography. Barbara Haynie typed the final manuscript. Vanessa Dingley played an important role in the entire project. She managed the typing and assembly of the final manuscript in my absence from UCLA, carefully proofread several drafts of the manuscript, compiled tables and figures, and made both stylistic and substantive suggestions for the improvement of the manuscript. Special thanks are also due to Catherine Kroger, who recently retired as an administrative analyst in the Urban Planning Program at UCLA. Since the inception of this project she managed the grant. In this capacity she helped to develop the budget for each year’s study, participated in the development of the research plan, and managed the research and clerical personnel actions associated with the project.

Martin Wachs Oxford, England

March, 1978

Chapter 1

The Changing Elderly and the Diversity of Their Lifestyles

Mobility is critical to the physical, social, and psychological well-being of the elderly. Physical health depends upon access to medical facilities and other social services. The ability to maintain an active social life in old age depends upon accessibility to family and friends as well as recreational and cultural activities. Key ingredients of psychological health which are enhanced by mobility are freedom from isolation and the ability to choose one’s range of activities. Because of its central role in American life, mobility has become an explicit element of national policy on aging. In 1970 Congress mandated.. the national policy that elderly and handicapped persons have the same right as other persons to utilize mass transportation facilities and services."¹ In response to this policy, many programs have been instituted to provide improved transportation for the elderly. Reduced fares for senior citizens on public transportation systems are now universal, and steps are being taken to remove architectural barriers which interfere with the ability of many disabled persons, including millions of senior citizens, to use transport vehicles. Specialized paratransit systems for the elderly also have been instituted in many locations to enable elderly persons to avail themselves of many private and public social service programs.

Because this emphasis upon meeting the mobility needs of the elderly is relatively new, it is understandable that transportation officials have concentrated upon meeting immediate requirements of the elderly and have had neither the resources nor the time to consider possible long-run changes in transportation needs of the elderly. Simple methods of analysis and planning have been employed, and resources have been expended in such ways as to initiate programs for the elderly as quickly as possible. While enormous progress has been made, it is appropriate to question whether the programs now in operation will be adequate to meet the changing needs of the elderly over the coming decades. A commitment has been made to provide transportation services to the elderly, and because a significant start has been made at overcoming current barriers to their mobility, this is an appropriate time to estimate what the travel needs and patterns of the elderly might be in coming years. It is particularly important to look forward because many programs and projects have long lead times and service lives. By the time many systems now being planned are in service, today’s elderly will be dead. It should not be assumed that the elderly of the future will have needs similar to those of today. If succeeding generations of the elderly are to have significantly different styles of living and travel patterns, they should now be identified and incorporated into planning goals.

There is evidence to suggest that living patterns and transportation requirements of older people are indeed shifting. By the year 2000 they may differ substantially from the requirements of the 1970s. Early transportation programs for senior citizens were based upon an image of higher density living by a fairly homogeneous group of elderly persons in central-city locations, many of whom were non-drivers. The elderly of the future, however, will be more heterogeneous, more affluent, more highly educated, dispersed in a variety of living environments, and more likely to drive. The trend for the last twenty years has been toward lower density living and increasing reliance on the automobile by senior citizens, and it is probable that this will continue as those who moved to suburban areas after World War II reach retirement age.

This book contains the results of a two-year research project concerning the future transportation needs of the elderly. The research is based upon the premise that the elderly include people of many different lifestyles giving rise to different travel demands. While it has not yet been possible to tailor transportation services to the diverse lifestyles of older Americans, planning should proceed in order that the design of future transportation systems meet these differing needs. In a case study in Los Angeles County, this research demonstrated that among the elderly there were seven groups with significantly different life-styles and that these groups differed from one another in terms of social patterns, living conditions, residential locations, and travel habits. The investigation also showed that transportation services currently available to the elderly population did not vary systematically with these different lifestyles and travel patterns and thus were not as closely tailored to the needs of the clients as such services should be. The investigation also included an analysis of