The Growth Dilemma: Residents' Views and Local Population Change in the United States

By Mark Baldassare

This title is part of UC Press's Voices Revived program, which commemorates University of California Press’s mission to seek out and cultivate the brightest minds and give them voice, reach, and impact. Drawing on a backlist dating to 1893, Voices Revived makes high-quality, peer-reviewed scholarship accessible once again using print-on-demand technology. This title was originally published in 1981.

• Language: English
• Publisher: University of California Press
• Release date: Nov 10, 2023
• ISBN: 9780520313910

Mark Baldassare

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THE GROWTH DILEMMA

Mark Baldassare

THE GROWTH DILEMMA

Residents’ Views and Local Population Change in the United States

UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA PRESS

BERKELEY LOS ANGELES LONDON

University of California Press Berkeley and Los Angeles, California University of California Press, Ltd.

London, England © 1981 by The Regents of the University of California Printed in the United States of America

123456789

Library of Congress Cataloging in Publication Data

Baldassare, Mark.

The growth dilemma.

Bibliography: p.

Includes index.

1. United States—Population. 2. United States— Population density. 3. United States—Population— Public opinion. 4. Public opinion—United States.

I. Title

HB3505.B298 304.6'2'0973 81-1499

ISBN 0-520-04302-2 AACR2

Contents

Contents

Tables and Figure

Preface

Chapter One Demystifying Growth in Contemporary America

Chapter Two Perceptions of Growth and its Local Impacts

Chapter Three The Consequences of Central-City Decline

Chapter Four Suburban Growth and Residents’ Complaints

Chapter Five The Population Turnaround in Nonmetropolitan Areas

Chapter Six The Growth Dilemma: A Review and a Look Forward

Appendix A Survey Questions (Chapters 3-5)

Appendix B Mean Scores on Survey Responses at Different Growth Rates

References

Index

Tables and Figure

TABLES

1. Perceptions of Population Growth 35

2. NORC Respondents at Different Growth Rates 38

3. Accurate Perceptions of Population Growth 39

4. Central-City Residents and Population Change 42

5. Suburban Residents and Population Change 44

6. Central-City Survey Respondents at Different

Growth Rates 65

7. Central-City Respondents’ Evaluations of Local Services and Facilities 67

8. Residential Satisfaction of Central-City Respondents 69

9. Social Relationship and Personal Well-Being

Reports of Central-City Respondents 71

10. Suburban Survey Respondents at Different

Growth Rates 90

11. Suburban Respondents’ Evaluations of Local Services and Facilities 92

12. Residential Satisfaction of Suburban Respondents 94

13. Social Relationship and Personal Well-Being

Reports of Suburban Respondents 97

14. Nonmetropolitan Survey Respondents at

Different Growth Rates 120

15. Nonmetropolitan Respondents’ Evaluations of

Local Services and Facilities 121

16. Residential Satisfaction of Nonmetropolitan

Respondents 123

17. Social Relationship and Personal Well-Being

Reports of Nonmetropolitan Respondents 126

FIGURE

1. Population Change for 5-year Periods 4

Preface

In the last two decades the United States has undergone some important demographic changes which have both social and economic ramifications. The most pronounced results of the several trends in population and settlement reviewed later are new patterns of growth and decline in our central cities, suburbs, and nonmetropolitan areas. This book will focus on the social consequences of local population changes: residents’ perceptions of population change and its impacts, and the effects of local growth experiences on evaluations of community and personal circumstances.

The growth dilemma refers to the complex issues which have recently surfaced in discussions about population change. For many communities, the choice between growth and decline seems to involve undesirable alternatives. This is all the more confusing because the specific consequences of growth and decline for the community and the individual are not really known. Some sociological theories and American values are negative towards growth and predict that various problems occur when large numbers of people move into localities. Others praise growth and concentrate on the assumed difficulties of decline. There is presently an absence of carefully collected and scrutinized information to support any of these positions.

The other perplexing issue is what to do, in practical terms, to influence population patterns. Public and professional controversy over this problem abounds. For example: Should people be allowed to live or work where they wish? Should present residents have the right to determine who has access to their community and how the land will be used? Can and should governments manage the processes of local growth and decline? There is as little consensus on policies as there is agreement on the actual effects of population change. Of course, the lack of dependable knowledge about individuals’ and communities’ experiences with population change has also severely limited the resolution of these issues.

This book is intended to improve our understanding of growth by providing more dependable information about its consequences. Data from national surveys in the 1970’s allow us to document, admittedly in general terms, what has happened to residents’ lives as a result of the local population changes which occurred during the previous decade. The book opens with discussions which help to frame the empirical findings and the general issues. Chapter 1 discusses present growth circumstances in the United States, differentiating recent phenomena from trends in other historical eras and societies. It also reviews public opinion and various ideas from the fields of sociology and planning which have dominated perceptions of the effects of growth. From these discussions, ideas emerge which seem relevant to the recent controversy over growth, as well as a strategy to test important hypotheses using national survey data.

Chapter 2 presents data on residents’ perceptions of growth and its specific impacts on the locality. Chapters 3 through 5 contain survey data on various concerns of the individual resident in relation to local growth circumstances, considering separately the central cities, suburbs, and nonmetropolitan areas. In Chapter 6 the evidence presented in this book is reviewed, and out of this evolves some general knowledge about the consequences of growth in this recent era of American history. I am fully aware that these reported patterns of population change and their effects may be time-bound. For this reason, the final chapter presents a look forward to predicted trends and their possible ramifications, and suggests some policies which may alleviate present and future growth-related problems.

My intellectual interests in growth and decline began while I was involved in the research for Residential Crowding in Urban America (1979d). I realized that some of the data collected during that project, but not analyzed, were very well suited for a study of population change. This work on population density was also concerned with the consequences of urbanization on the community and the individual, but did not deal with all of the relevant issues in this longstanding sociological debate. The Growth Dilemma is thus an opportunity for me to extend some of my thoughts about a central issue in urban sociology.

My personal interest in the topic began in the early 1970’s while I was living in Santa Barbara, California, where growth was a public controversy. I have since been fortunate to travel throughout the United States and have been fascinated with the concerns about growth voiced in all types of communities in every region of the country. This has motivated me to study the effects of growth and the controversy surrounding the issues systematically. Of course, since my return to New York City two years ago, my present surroundings have served as a reminder of the problems of population decline.

Portions of this book are based upon several unpublished papers. Chapter 2 borrows from one written with Ellen Aiderman (1978), and a paper I delivered at the American Sociological Association meeting in Boston (1979b). Chapter 5 contains materials from a paper originally prepared for the Population Association of America meeting in Philadelphia, with Robert Christopher Pennie (1979a), and a presentation to the Future of Rural America Advisory Group of the U.S. Department of Agriculture (1979c).

Research support for this project came from a variety of sources. Initial funding was provided by a small grant from the Metro Center of the National Institute of Mental Health (MH30488). The data analysis was conducted during the two-year period of my NIMH Postdoctoral Fellowship (MH14583) in the University of California, Los Angeles, Department of Sociology. Grants from the Council for Research in the Social Sciences have helped me to extend my earlier research on population change. Thanks to Jon Cole, the Center for the Social Sciences at Columbia University provided space, support services, and a good environment for writing. Finally, this book was revised while I held a grant from the Metro Center of the National Institute of Mental Health (MH34412).

I am grateful for the assistance received from Ellen Aiderman, Janet Berman, and Robert Christopher Pennie during the stages of data preparation and analysis. Diane Davis conducted library research and offered useful suggestions which have influenced my thinking towards the first chapter. Nina Berry typed the original manuscript; Helen Danner typed the final draft, prepared the index, and provided valuable editorial assistance. As always, Grant Barnes and the staff at the University of California Press were supportive and offered intelligent advice. Comments on various sections of this book from Claude Fischer, Allan Jacobs, Larry Long, Bill Michelson, Sarah Rosenfield, and Martin Wachs proved useful in shaping the final product.

M.B.

New York City September 1980

Chapter One

Demystifying Growth in Contemporary America

Local population growth in contemporary America has several unique characteristics. First, the patterns of population change are found within a particular historical and societal context. Within this general framework, present-day central cities, suburbs, and nonmetropolitan areas are experiencing very different types of population growth and decline. In this chapter we will critically analyze preconceptions about growth and review some of the population trends which have special significance. As we sift through these materials, some ideas related to the long-term controversy over the effects of growth, but not pertinent to the present realities, will be rejected. Instead, we will propose a new set of issues and hypotheses, as well as a research approach, more relevant to today’s circumstances. This will provide guidelines for proceeding with the central focus of this book, which is to examine the consequences of local population change as viewed by residents.

We focus on three basic occurrences, though contrasting demographic trends are also of importance. (1) In the decade of the 1960’s and continuing through the 1970’s, a considerable number of major American cities decreased in population size. This was not a result of war, or high death rates, or natural catastrophe. Millions of people, voluntarily for the most part, left these older central cities and settled elsewhere. Some moved to other central cities, once less well-known and in more remote and underdeveloped parts of the country, and these places are now growing at phenomenal rates. (2) Suburban areas, some on the fringes of the declining cities and others on the outskirts of the newer growing cities, increased in geographical size and experienced dramatic population growth. This was not attributable to exceptionally high birth rates, a massive influx of foreigners, or rural migrants in search of work. Much of the growth was because a sizable proportion of the inner-city population wanted to move to these newer residential areas. (3) Communities outside of the metropolitan areas lost population during the 1960’s, continuing the long term decline in rural America. But by the 1970’s some of these places began a turnaround and actually gained more residents than they lost. This nonmetropolitan growth has been the trend least expected by social scientists, social commentators, and policy-makers.

It is now well documented that these three occurrences are largely explained by internal migrations. In other words, people’s choice of one location over another has led to an exchange of residents in central-city, suburban, and nonmetropolitan areas. Some of the consequences of these movements, for the places people are leaving as well as the communities they are entering, will be explored in this book.

The critical role of this form of intra-national migration, and the type of locality affected by the specific trends, are stressed in this chapter, in order to illustrate the particular circumstances of growth which have faced American communities in recent years. This also allows us to distinguish growth as it is presently occurring from growth as it has occurred in other nations or previously in American history. Various ideas about the consequences of population change will also be reviewed, with these facts in mind, in order to develop appropriate theories to understand present growth patterns. This new understanding of population change is of the utmost relevance in our search for an appropriate research method, specification of issues, some predictions about growth consequences—and eventually, suggested solutions to the problems of growing and declining localities.

RECENT PATTERNS OF POPULATION CHANGE

Numerous localities reflect the basic trends just noted for central cities, suburbs, and nonmetropolitan areas. In order to introduce the reader to the scope and extent of these population changes, experiences of decline and growth are now purposely contrasted within specific community types. In addition, we can also see that growth provides circumstances unique to the type of community in which it is occurring, as does population decline. In later chapters, more cases and explicit analyses of these demographic patterns are offered.

Central-City Decline

The media have dwelled upon the economic problems of major cities such as New York, Cleveland, and St. Louis. All have lost sizable numbers of residents, especially the more well-to-do, in the last two decades. Beyond their current budgetary crises are visible signs of housing abandonment and urban blight, such as the South Bronx, and large numbers of underskilled and underemployed people. Police and firefighters find it increasingly difficult to provide safe neighborhoods for many residents, given financial cutbacks in services and the deteriorating conditions in many residential areas. Local facilities, the infrastructure, and human services are generally hard-pressed to meet the needs of the locality. Transportation services within and around these places have done more to encourage people to commute into the cities than to live within them.

Large sums of state and federal money, and various urban policies, have been devoted to these problems. They have had little impact upon the local conditions for residents in declining central cities. Nor have they yet produced a reversal of the present migratory trend. A dominant theme in discussions of such places tends to be a hopelessness about improvement in the short or long run.

Central-City Rapid Growth

Municipalities such as San Jose, Phoenix, and Houston have boomed while the economic and demographic growth of the United States has, overall, been less than dramatic. Migrants have been attracted to new jobs, and recent settlers in turn spur the growth of additional employment opportunities, as in the service sector. Not only the lure of affluence, but the promise of a different and better life-style, have enticed residents out of densely settled and colder regions into sprawling, automobile-dominated, and outdoors-oriented central cities (see Figure 1). Reports of conditions in these areas tend to be upbeat, focusing on the improving community conditions created by the economic climate. There are sporadic stories which tell of some difficulties in adjusting to rapid growth. Roads, public transit, school buildings, and municipal services of appropriate size and quality sometimes lag behind the waves of migrants. The carrying capacity of roads and streets is sometimes overwhelmed, and environmental degradation often occurs as adequate pollution controls and land-use planning are overlooked.

Suburban Decline

In an era of suburban growth, the loss of population in places peripheral to central cities has hardly been discussed. There are already some occurrences of this phenomenon, and there are reasons to believe it may be more prevalent in future years.

Older suburban areas, built hurriedly after World War II in the shadow of a severe housing shortage, are showing signs of physical deterioration because the dwellings were mass-produced with insufficient concern for quality. Others are gray areas (see Hall, 1979) of

Figure 1. Population change for 5-year periods by region: 1950 to 1975. (Periods beginning July 1. Change expressed in millions.) lower desirability, as the blight which strikes inner cities has spread to the inner suburbs; some of the pockets of less affluent suburbs around New York City display these characteristics. Another factor of increasing importance is the aging of the suburban population. Young families which were attracted to suburbia in earlier years have now passed through various life-cycle stages. Their children are now leaving home to attend college, start households of their own, or seek employment elsewhere. Often the parents remain, leading to a decrease in the number of persons per household which results in an overall population loss to the suburban community. In other words, older residents are not always replaced by young couples with children. The new residents also tend to have smaller families than the previous cohort.

These scenarios of suburban decline imply a shrinkage in the tax base and a possible shift out of purely residential to mixed land-uses to compensate for tax losses. On the other hand, expenditures for highly expensive child-oriented services may be reduced; and, given the steady income from property taxes, communities may shift some of these funds to pay for needed services for an adult population (e.g., recreational facilities, mass transit). In general, suburban residents and their governments vary considerably in their abilities to recognize population change, achieve consensus about how to react to it, and make necessary adjustments.

Suburban Rapid Growth

The availability of undeveloped land, problems of living within specific cities, a shortage of appropriate housing, various government incentives, and the lure of huge profits for developers have led to massive suburban growth. Examples abound: Suffolk and Westchester counties on the fringes of the New York metropolitan area; Orange County localities within commuting distance of Los Angeles (e.g., Irvine, Newport Beach); the numerous suburban communities on the San Francisco Peninsula between the cities of San Francisco and San Jose. The problems which these areas experience are often upstaged by the benefits of new and spacious housing, separation from central-city problems, lower property taxes, and an apparently more relaxed life-style.

Beyond these advantages one can also find disappointed expectations within suburban areas undergoing rapid change. Both new and old residents are hostile towards new growth, especially if it means increased social heterogeneity. There are many reports of the overloading of schools and a shortage of shopping, entertainment, and public recreational facilities. Resistance to the new taxes necessary to pay for an increased scale of services is also common. Finally, residents apparently perceive changes for the worse in regard to overcrowding, traffic congestion, and environmental deterioration. Again, suburban communities vary in the extent to which they can recognize, agree upon, and reverse these unwanted consequences of growth.

Nonmetropolitan Decline

For many decades, the winds of fortune have shifted away from rural communities. Industrialization has pulled people towards the urban realm in search of jobs, and the mechanization and corporatization of agriculture have accelerated this process. The need for the small family farm, and the ability to maintain a livelihood in this fashion, have thus greatly diminished. Farm hands are replaced by machines, and the service occupations surrounding the agricultural economy have been reduced. Rural-farm communities have difficulties in maintaining their more youthful and educated population, both because they cannot provide enough jobs and because of the lure of a better standard of living in urban places. Even during this rather late stage of economic development, nonmetropolitan areas suffer out-migrations for the same reasons as in earlier years.

Other reasons also account for population decline and economic problems in specific nonmetropolitan communities. Places such as Keokuk, Iowa, are bypassed by the new interstate highways and find themselves cut off from the modern automobile- and truck-oriented economies (U.S. Dept. HUD, 1979). Their commerce dries up, and with it there is further unemployment, tax loss, and physical deterioration. Once-vibrant railroad towns, such as Valentine, Texas (U.S. Dept. HUD, 1979), are grossly affected by