Leading in the 21st Century: The Call for a New Type of African Leader

By Tshilidzi Marwala

'It became apparent to me that, due to the complexity of problems that face humanity today, those who do not know should not lead.' – Professor Tshilidzi Marwala
In 2020 the world found itself in a state of flux. A global pandemic disrupted the world order while the digital transformation of the Fourth Industrial Revolution (4IR), with its challenges and huge potential benefits, presented a fundamental paradigm shift. How are Africa's leaders to respond, today?
In a crisis, decisive leadership is imperative for the public good, but as we move beyond the pandemic and confront the changes of the 4IR, we must determine how we will adapt. What is clear is that leadership will have to be grounded in scientific and mathematical thinking and in good governance. It follows, then, that for South Africa to succeed as a nation in the 21st century we must be able to provide our people with an all-embracing education, not just science and technology but human and social sciences as well.
Leading in the 21st Century presents a comprehensive overview of how the world is changing and lessons we can draw from leaders, particularly in the African context. From Charlotte Maxeke and the Rain Queen Modjadji, to Mangaliso Robert Sobukwe, Eric Molobi and Richard Maponya, there is much to learn from great leaders.
The challenges of the 21st century are immense, from climate change to social media and the digital divide that deepens our understanding of inequality, particularly in the 'new normal'. South Africa faces not only a shifting global context but a fraught local context of stagnant growth, rising unemployment and deep-seated inequality, worsened in 2020 by the national lockdown necessitated by the coronavirus pandemic. The 4IR offers solutions to many of our most pressing problems and we cannot afford to be left behind.
The certainty is that the 4IR has arrived. The debates lie in how we respond to it.
Tshilidzi Marwala deciphers it all, while providing a framework for navigating these shifts.
A leading academic of international standing, and Deputy Chair of South Africa's Presidential 4IR Commission, Tshilidzi Marwala provides valuable insights into how leadership should be responding to the digital challenges of the 21st century.

• Language: English
• Publisher: Tracey McDonald Publishers
• Release date: Jan 4, 2021
• ISBN: 9781776260843

Book preview

Chapter 1

INTRODUCTION

The 21st century is proving to offer technological advancements at an exponential rate. While the 20th century gave us aviation, nuclear technology, mass production and the electronic era, the 21st century has given us the Fourth Industrial Revolution (4IR).

The 4IR is an era where technologies in the cyber, physical and biological spheres are increasingly converging. Technologies in the cyberspace include artificial intelligence (AI), blockchain, and the Internet of Things (IoT). Although these technologies were invented in the 20th century, they have become more effective in the 21st century. For example, AI was developed in the 1950s, and John McCarthy coined the term. Still, it was only recently when the availability of data became more widespread and computational power increased that it has found complex applications in society, economy and politics. Blockchain technology, on the other hand, was invented in the early 1990s by Stuart Haber and Scott Stornetta. The blockchain network stores data across multiple computers, ensuring that the chain won’t collapse because a prospective hacker would have to attack the entire system, across many computers. IoT is an old concept, but the availability of fast internet and advanced sensors have accelerated its applications. Through the IoT, a watch can measure vital aspects of a person and directly inform a doctor if there is anything wrong with the health of the individual concerned.

These developments in the 4IR call for a new type of leader.

Leadership in the 21st Century

It became apparent to me that, due to the complexity of problems that face humanity today, those who do not know should not lead.¹ Historically, in South Africa, we have always been led by those who had more knowledge and education. For us to succeed as a nation in the 4IR, we must be able to provide our people with education in its totality. This means that those who are interested in science and technology should also be required to study human and social sciences. Likewise, those who are interested in human and social sciences should also be required to study science and technology.

Why is knowledge a crucial tool for the 4IR? Socially, knowledge liberates us from superstitious thinking and equips us to tackle complex problems. Are our student leaders today receiving education in its totality to enable them to tackle complex problems?

When Deng Xiaoping was changing China after 500 years of lagging behind the West and the humiliation of being invaded by relatively small countries, Japan and Britain, he realised that the centre of his strategy should be education. He advanced what he termed the four modernisations, which were advancement in agriculture, industry and national defence, as well as science and technology. In this regard, he reoriented the Chinese education system to be more international, modern and forward-looking. The results of these reforms have helped China emerge as the most dynamic economy of our time.

Why is this Chinese strategy relevant to South Africa, particularly as we enter the 4IR? It is essential because as we tackle the problems of unemployment, poverty and inequality, economic growth is crucial. It cannot be that the average Australian is ten times richer and better educated than the average South African. As we modernise and reform our agriculture through land reform, we must have sufficient people who are knowledgeable in the political economy of farming to ensure continued food security and global competitiveness. As we tackle the problems of our shrinking industries, we need to understand issues of automation, technology and human capital to improve the quality of life of our people. Any collective knowledge gap in our understanding of technology or global economics, or our knowledge of human capital competency, will derail our ambition of creating a developed society in the 21st century.

Remove Politicism from Leadership

Kwame Nkrumah, the first Prime Minister of Ghana, which was the first African country to attain independence, once said: ‘Seek ye first political kingdom, and all else shall be added unto you.’ Thus, he ushered in an Africa where politics became a fashion statement, adored by many and damned by few; a continent that is dominated by politics at the expense of all other vital factors such as the economy and technology.²

Today, some 60-odd years later, the nominal gross domestic product (GDP) of Ghana is $70 billion with a population of 31 million people. Now, compare this to Singapore’s nominal GDP of $392 billion, with a population of 5.7 million people. Singapore is even more prosperous than South Africa, which has a nominal GDP of $370 billion and 60 million people. At the time Nkrumah uttered those words, South Africa and Ghana were much more affluent than Singapore. It seems as though the ‘all else’ that Nkrumah promised did not follow.

The concept of politics dominating all spheres of our lives is called politicism. Because of the shrinking economic activity outside of the government, the South African economy is increasingly becoming centred around the state. If this trend continues, then the South African economy will increasingly shrink, and soon enough the capacity to afford the civil service will be compromised. This is because as the economy shrinks so does the tax base, which is the only source of revenue for the government.

In September 2020, on Twitter, I asked the following question: Is politicism, the belief that politics should be the hegemonic driver of development, compromising our country’s economic, technological and social development? Fifty-one per cent of the 100 respondents answered that, indeed, politicism has a damaging impact on our society, while 25% responded that it is not damaging our society, and 24% did not know how to answer. Though these results are far from being statistically significant, they do indicate that our people are quite keen for South Africa to start being visible in other areas of our society, such as technology and the economy.

Why is politicism not effective? Firstly, because an entity as complex as a nation-state requires multiple skills and capabilities to function. In many countries, the skills of political leadership are one-dimensional, producing people who think and talk alike. Any system, such as a country that is driven by a one-dimensional mindset, will always fail spectacularly. In finance, Harry Markowitz came up with a seemingly obvious concept called portfolio theory. Portfolio theory states that to minimise risk, you need to invest in many assets (a diverse portfolio) as opposed to one. This is akin to an old African proverb that states that ‘two heads are better than one’ in tackling a problem. Markowitz decorated this old idea with fancy mathematical concepts, which saw him win the Nobel Prize for Economics.

Countries that work are those where leadership is distributed across many spheres of society. For a country to work, you need technologists who are operating at the top of their game. The impact of their work should change the lives of a multitude of people.

On 28 August 2020, Elon Musk, the South African born and Silicon Valley-based engineer who founded Tesla, unveiled a device that is inserted into the scalp of a person to read brain activity. The implications of this invention on real-time measuring of sugar levels, early diagnosis of Alzheimer’s disease and brain tumours are significant. What people like Elon Musk and Mark Zuckerberg are doing is creating a culture of leadership on a substantial scale, influencing people at a considerable level. With politicism, we cannot grow the same technological leadership dimension that we see in the United States and China. This filters into South Africa’s ability to compete globally, resulting in deindustrialisation, job losses and economic contractions.

Another dimension of leadership that we lack as a result of politicism is in the arts. While the arts, whether theatre or painting or sculpting, look non-essential and ‘a nice to have’, they are incredibly crucial for establishing a creative culture that can spill over into technology, economy and society in general. It has been generally believed that leaders such as Steve Jobs were half artists and half technologists. When Jobs founded the company Apple with Steve Wozniak, the latter concentrated on technology while Jobs focused on the design, which requires competence in the arts. In fact, the look and feel aspect of Apple devices defines its products up to this day. This is because technological progress is a faster equaliser than aesthetic characteristics.

Extreme politicism quickly descends into corruption, as is the case in South Africa. If all economic activities around the state shrink, then the clamouring for access to the state becomes hypercompetitive. The fact that many people who gravitate towards the state are regulators or have direct and indirect control of the regulations makes the whole system easily fall prey to manipulation.

In September 2020, I asked the following question on Twitter: Though there are pockets of successes, why has post-colonial Africa mainly been a failure? Of the 707 people who responded 78% thought it was because of corruption, 11% thought it was because of the legacy of apartheid while 7% thought it was because of lack of education, and 4% thought it was because of lack of investment.

Something as complex as the prosperity of nations cannot be explained by just one variable, and indeed it is a combination of many factors. Furthermore, the timing of my question was such that there was plenty of conversation about corruption. Therefore, this could have influenced the outcome of this poll because of the psychological concept called availability bias, when people assume the likelihood of an event based on the ease with which examples come to mind. Corruption suboptimally allocates resources away from the assets that are required for production and economic expansion.

Create a Meritocratic Country

Many people ask a relevant question: if politicism is so bad, how come China is a phenomenal success? Why do the consequences of politicism not apply to China? This is because China has a strong and effective state, which explains the country’s success. Furthermore, China is meticulously selective when choosing its leaders. Many of its leaders are high achievers who were at the top of their class. The culture of studying is embedded in China’s leadership, with many leaders taking time to go and study in what they call party schools as well as in leading international centres. The curriculum in these party schools is astonishingly modern and usually about the economy as well as China’s new ideology, which is based on technology. So, China is more of a meritocracy than a politicised state. As Henry Kissinger noted, China is not just a country but a civilisation.

What now for South Africa? We need to move towards building a meritocratic society rather than a politicised society. We need to invest seriously in education across the board. We need to develop a productive rather than a consumer economy. We need to diversify our leadership in terms of skills, race and gender. It is only through the ‘portfolio of skill sets’ at all levels of leadership in our country that we shall have the necessary capability to lead South Africa efficiently.

This Book

This book tackles the leadership problems of the 21st century. It has 44 chapters that are divided into four sections. The first section deals with the critical leadership issues that a leader in the 21st century must master to tackle the 4IR successfully. These issues include human capital in the areas of AI, blockchain and other disruptive technologies, as well as manufacturing, data, incentives, infrastructure, legislation, state capacity, and security of energy suppliers.

The second section is on the leadership mindset required for successful leadership in the 21st century. The adoption of scientific and mathematical thinking, reading, education, competition, commercialisation, and good governance mindsets are essential.

The third section describes the global trends defining the 21st century, and these include COVID-19, climate change, water, service delivery, local government, commerce, retail, and money.

The fourth section draws lessons from some prominent leaders such as Kwame Nkrumah, Marie Curie, Eric Molobi, Helen Joseph and Richard Maponya.

PART 1

Key Leadership Issue:

Fourth Industrial Revolution (4IR)

This section describes key leadership issues that need to be addressed for South Africa to thrive in the 21st-century era that is driven by AI. These issues include the 4IR, human capital in the areas of AI, blockchain and other disruptive technologies, manufacturing, data, incentives, 4IR infrastructure as well as legislation, state capacity, and energy supplier Eskom and its maintenance.

CHAPTER 2

FOURTH INDUSTRIAL REVOLUTION IN SOUTH AFRICA

It is a truism that the 4IR is deeply misunderstood, including its components ranging from robotics, algorithms, simplistic chatbots replacing human beings to data analytics. ³ ⁴ What is required is a deep societal understanding of the pervasive nature of the 4IR that it is not an event with a finite beginning and end but can be seen as a series of fortunate events, with apologies to Lemony Snicket. ⁵

Luddites

Although many remain wary, it is a given that the world as we know it is fundamentally changing. Industrial revolutions have brought with them not only social upheaval but also innovations and change. We have also learned that such revolutions are not neutral. For instance, the first industrial revolution was met with fierce opposition from the Luddites, who were groups of English workers who organised into a form of a union and set out to destroy any machinery they believed would threaten their jobs. In retaliation, many were arrested and executed. Yet, despite the opposition of the Luddites, the first industrial revolution marched on, and the Luddites faded into obscurity. Some have parochial understandings of the 4IR, working on the assumption that it is something that can be averted or avoided. Our very understanding that normalcy in society today is a world which has embraced the revolution has been exposed and interrogated. The fields of commerce, banking, trade and economics have complex interdependencies that are only possible through big data and AI, for instance. (AI is a technique for making machines intelligent.⁶)

Lagging Behind

On many occasions, we have lagged behind in our ability to adapt and respond to industrial revolutions. South Africa still grapples with this legacy. Yet, unlike the previous industrial revolutions, in the 4IR we cannot afford to be left behind. Our commitment to the 4IR should not be mere rhetoric but rather tangible if we are to realise our economic fortunes. In a country already plagued by the legacy of state capture, with a dwindling economy and mass unemployment, there is much to be gained from the 4IR. It has the potential to counter slow economic growth and low productivity. Importantly, however, South Africa now has to position itself in such a way that we are ready for this transformation. If we don’t, we risk falling even further behind.

4IR Commission

Herein lies the crux of the work of President Cyril Ramaphosa’s 4IR Commission, which was established in 2019 and of which I am deputy chair. The role of this commission is to assist the government in taking advantage of the opportunities presented by the digital industrial revolution. This, of course, requires collaboration between the government, the private sector, the unions, and civil society to be effective.

How do we go about this? The Commission has formulated eight recommendations.

Firstly, the government needs to prioritise a redesign of the human capacity development ecosystem in order to link our entire pool of potential employees into productive and decent work. In order to achieve this, a comprehensive view of the entire human capital system must be developed, and the leverage points which can be accelerated by the 4IR need to be identified.⁷ This will be facilitated at the Human Resources Development Council, assisted by the 4IR committee and driven by the Digital Skills Forum, which will include timeframes on deliverable objectives. Through the adoption of a skills revolution, both primary and secondary students must, at the least, be equipped with communication (both verbal and written), logical and numerical skills. These skills should feed into the ability to code, think computationally and should have a holistic approach to problem solving. Tertiary education must become multidisciplinary for all students where the curriculum blends science and technology with human and social sciences.

The second recommendation is to develop ‘The National Artificial Intelligence Institute’ which will focus on the application of AI to health, agriculture, finance, mining, manufacturing, and government as well as regulations. It would be responsible for keeping abreast of and support capacity building in Neural Networks, Natural Language Processing and Computer Vision, among others. To spur the industrial and research applications of AI, we need to make high-performance computing available for widespread use. This institute will focus on research and development, as well as implementation capabilities in AI. A mandate to include training will bolster the investment in human capital. In order to achieve this, the government needs to establish the institute within one of its existing structures. Then the business will need to collaborate on implementation of the institute’s programmes while labour unions drive training in AI.

The third recommendation is to establish a platform for advanced manufacturing and new materials. In 2019, manufacturing was South Africa’s fourth-largest industry and contributed 14% to the GDP, making it an important job creator and imperative for the country’s global competitiveness. In the context of the 4IR, nevertheless, it has to be supported by a state-led research initiative, which will grow the sector and develop