Blueprint For Tomorrow

By Clive H Thompson and Alan Lloyd Jones

Blueprint for Tomorrow is unique in assessing today's management performance and guiding the reader in planning for a bright sustainable future. The majority of the book consists of fourteen named protocols, not of instructions, but po

• Language: English
• Publisher: Maple Publishers
• Release date: Jan 16, 2023
• ISBN: 9781915492951

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Blueprint_For_Tomorrow_Front_Cover.jpg

Clive H. Thompson CBE

Alan Lloyd Jones FFOH

Blueprint For Tomorrow

Author: Clive H Thompson and Alan Lloyd Jones

Copyright © Clive H Thompson and Alan Lloyd Jones (2023)

The right of Clive H Thompson and Alan Lloyd Jones to be identified as authors of this work has been asserted by the authors in accordance with section 77 and 78 of the Copyright, Designs and Patents Act 1988.

First Published in 2023

ISBN 978-1-915492-94-4 (Paperback)

978-1-915492-95-1 (E-Book)

Book cover design and Book layout by:

Maple Publishers

www.maplepublishers.com

Published by:

Maple Publishers

Fairbourne Drive, Atterbury,

Milton Keynes,

MK10 9RG, UK

www.maplepublishers.com

A CIP catalogue record for this title is available from the British Library.

All rights reserved. No part of this book may be reproduced or translated by any form or by any means, electronic or mechanical, including photocopying, recording or by any information storage and retrieval system without written permission from the authors.

The views expressed in this work are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of the publisher, and the publisher hereby disclaims any responsibility for them.

Contents

Foreword 4

How to use this book7

Introduction9

Change, Its Nature & Delivery19

The Next Decade of the 21st Century27

The Management Model48

Addenda

1. The Summary Model66

2. The summary Code of Practice67

3. Sustainable Leadership68

The Assurance Process

Introduction to the Assessment Process71

The Sustainable Governance Rating Process76

Protocols & Guidance, Categories

Strategy Protocols

Mission & Values83

Strategy & Business Planning90

Sustainable Finance Management105

Stakeholders, Community & Regulatory Management122

Innovation & Renewal131

HSE Protocols

Environment Management147

Product Stewardship156

People Safety, Health & Well-Being165

Loss Prevention175

Crisis Management186

Operations Protocols

Operations Management192

Sales & Marketing210

Supply Chain Management224

Employment Management240

Postscript259

FOREWORD

The initial concept for this book dates back almost a decade and the original Foreword was written in 2017. In the interim 5 years the world and the context of this book have changed dramatically. While much of the content is about preparing and managing change, the level and scale have been dramatic!

It is frequently said that a crisis is required to promote dramatic and often necessary change as evidenced by the technical and social change catalysed by the Second World War. It is almost as if the needs for change queue up waiting for the accelerant to emerge or even explode on to the scene. In this case four distinct changes have separately and concurrently provided a massive impetus.

It has been quoted that the Covid 19 pandemic will have an equivalent impact to a small world War, and this will be examined in later sections. The freely available capital known as Quantitative Easing, released in 2008-12 to aid recovery from the financial crisis of 2008-10 provided the capital for the rapid expansion of electronic technologies and especially social media. Suddenly innovation and enterprise had a capital feed. From 1992 until 2021 the response of governments and many influential bodies to ever more alarming statistical and real evidence of Global Warming, was at best lethargic. However, the response to COP26, despite an unpromising lead-in, has been totally different. Hard action plans and responses around committed targets are apparent in all fields, and sceptics have been largely banished from the debate.

And now in February 2022 the Putin unprovoked invasion of Ukraine is challenging the uneasy geopolitical stability that has characterised the period since the collapse of the Soviet Union. Over this period the growth of autocratic powers in many countries, together with populist libertarian doctrines have undermined democratic principles, along with traditional views of society. The Russian attack on a democratic country is totally counter to acknowledged international conventions, and has provoked an unprecedented rejection from most world economies. At the time of writing, Russian columns are converging on the Kyiv, the Ukrainian capital with the clear intention of deposing the democratically elected government.

The world has become accustomed to the increasing speed of change, together with the social economic, technical and organisational disruption that comes with it. But these four simultaneous events amount to a multiple dislocation to world order! Every individual and society need a recognisable foundation upon which to base our values and judgements and then give structure for how we live our lives. It will take us time to readjust to the new world order that will emerge when and if Covid vaccines give us control, social media discovers some social values, the world really understands what is needed to reach carbon neutrality, and Russia accepts that new world prosperity demands that Putin will not be able to define his version of the world.

So where do we look for stability and a pathway to the future? Where do we look for our new foundation upon which to build a sustainable future The world that we seek must be a Sustainable World. But what is Sustainable? For decades, the word Sustainable became associated solely with the environment, but a decade ago the authors were leaders in proposing that Sustainability is only workable if all elements of an organisation and society are managed on a sustainability basis [The sustainability of corporate governance - considerations for a model Jones and Thompson, Corporate Governance, Volume 12, Number 3, 2012]. Only if all resources. Natural, Financial, Environmental, Human and Social are managed as if finite can an organisation consider itself a truly Sustainable.

The concept of managing in this way is defined by the authors as Sustainable Governance© and is explained and developed in this book. In facing these unprecedented changes, Sustainable Governance © has never been more relevant. The recently promoted ESG agenda [Environment, Social and Governance] follows similar lines, but is a follower and does not go far enough.

Blueprint for Tomorrow starts with the reality of today and takes the reader through a process where a series of audit questions are posed that lead the reader to position his organisation and create his or her own individual strategy and sustainable pathway for the organisation. Self -learning is a very powerful tool that imprints ideas and knowledge far more acceptably than those given by an exterior person, body or consultancy.

Blueprint for Tomorrow should be considered as a sustainability toolbox creating the mindset for the reader to build all elements of sustainability into his or her organisation making it truly fit for tomorrow and well able to withstand the shocks of a changing world.

HOW TO USE THIS BOOK

Too much Management literature is focused upon offering advice, modules and templates for contemporary policies and actions. On the other hand, futurists project scenarios about what the future might look like. This book is neither but can be considered as ‘Reach for the Future’.

It does not pretend to be clairvoyant but capitalises upon the reality that change is now continuous and has to be absorbed and managed, and highlights for the reader, the analyses to be made, the decisions to be considered, and the pathways to be chosen.

But, before it commences assisting the reader in preparing his, or her organisation for the future it identifies the foundations of today, upon which we can base the approach to ‘tomorrow’. It does not predict what change will be, but it lays down a practical and practiced model for the management of change. It formulates a resilient ‘Sustainable Management Model’, the philosophy for which pervades this book. It simplifies the concept of Leadership, at a time when the temptation is to make it ever more complex, in the face of the explosion of digitally available information.

It then leads the reader along a self-assessment pathway to the clarification of policies, processes and actions which become the foundation for a confident sustainable future. And it provides a tool to measure current preparedness and to assess progress towards a self-defined long-term goal. The Assurance and Rating process can be used as an initial tool to identify status in each field and/or to measure continuing progress and competitive performance.

Underpinning the content of this book is the principle of Sustainable Governance©, a term coined by the authors to describe the belief that in a world of ever more valuable and precious resources, every resource, natural, human, financial, energy, environmental and all others must be managed as if finite and must be managed in a sustainable manner.

These initial chapters formulate the basic philosophy of this book and is the foundation of all that follows.

Each aspect of management is covered by a ‘Protocol’, and the Protocols are grouped into three sections.

Each commences with a summary of what follows and the basis of the subsequent assessment. There then follows a series of questions for the assessor that examine the status of the host organisation. The initial questions may seem rudimentary but are essential to establish ‘ground level’ for the assessor’s home base. It is surprising, when an action by an organisation receives adverse comment, how the absence, or having ignored seemingly simple basic procedures has led to exposure! The style of questions tries not to lead, so that the replies build to a self-created picture for each protocol area. It is then for the host organisation to decide how to record and report the results, as individual protocols or as aggregations.

This book can be considered and used in many ways. For the section on Change Management, for the Management Model, and the Simplification of Leadership, it can almost be read as a textbook. The individual Protocols can be treated as both audit guides and management check lists. Each Protocol can be utilised as a ‘stand-alone’ unit, and used by individual managers, or be used to assess and be rated as part of the whole. It is a versatile book and can be used in a measurable way by managers at all levels in an organisation.

It does not predict the future, but forms conclusions based upon the present, and ventures into some extrapolations, but through the use of this book, it is intended that the reader will be positioned to manage his, or her way to what they, themselves have identified as their ‘tomorrows’.

INTRODUCTION

In an early book on management, E.F.L.Brech [Management, It’s Nature and Significance, [Pitman1966] defined management as a social process, and listed its fundamental elements as, Planning, Coordination, Motivation and Control.

Since the 1960s the business world has seen a plethora of new initiatives, gurus, consultancy programmes, mnemonics, and plain ‘fads’; all claiming to be the answer! Almost every university and college has a business school, and business studies cover every aspect of business and management. MBAs, once rare and prized, are now commonplace.

But, have the basic tenets of management changed since Brech in 1966?

Only marginally. That is, until the present. But what is constantly changing is the environment, or context in which management is conducted as a process, and with it the balance of priorities and skills needs constant revision. Nothing therefore stays quite the same, and over the last five decades, ‘change management experience’ has become an essential item in the CV of almost every aspiring managerial job applicant.

But, conventional change management, however well executed, will be totally inadequate as preparation for and managing, the compound changes approaching organisations in the next decades. While the basic principles of management broadly remain, the operating, political, economic and social context will undergo dramatic and continuous change. The concurrent and superimposed impact will continue to be unprecedented and unpredictable, and will leave unprepared organisations, surprised, vulnerable and uncompetitive. The threat is such that a new approach is required.

What are the predicted influences that demand a new approach? Disaster was narrowly averted in the 2008 financial crisis, by the rapid capitalisation by world economies that became known as Quantitative Easing. While it gave the world economy time to recover and readjust, together with the austerity measures employed to different degrees, they have resulted in several consequences, only predicted by very few economists. The cash injections have universally found their way to increasing asset values in property and investments. Those with assets have profited greatly while those without and those with earnings freezes have fallen badly behind. In real terms the rich have got richer and the poor have got poorer. The social consequences have, in many cases been extreme, and the legacy is building a head of social resentment. Just as governments were belatedly turning their intention to social remedial programmes, the Covid pandemic demanded further capital injections for equipment, vaccines and individual furlough support. Inflationary pressures were inevitable and interest rates are rising and put further pressure on those with no reserves. The low interest rates encouraged lenders to extend their credit leaving them vulnerable to rising inflation. Harsher controls on lending and greater application of risk management did not reach predicted levels, leaving economies little room now to relieve social inequality and hardship.

The Covid pandemic has affected every country by its severity and infection rates; It threatened health services in almost all regions, and only the response and ingenuity of vaccine scientists prevented a colossal disaster. No-one, especially politicians, were prepared for this health, social and financial impact, and for two years reaction to each new variant was the dominant motivation. There have been many lessons, prime of which should be to upgrade and prioritise the status and application of emergency planning at all levels, international, national, regional, corporate and even for individuals. Positive results have been the huge enhancement of virus knowledge and vaccine development, and the greater awareness of the dangers posed by cross species infection by viruses and their variants.

From Kyoto to Copenhagen, climate change deniers were able to confuse and delay acceptance of the reality and consequences of global warming, the destruction of biodiversity and depletion of resources. The Paris consensus, while far from ideal has created both moral and political bases for action and a boost for the search for alternative technologies and especially sources of green energy. Even after Paris, detractors at the highest levels were brazenly casting doubt on the proven science and resisted change. But suddenly, as the COP26 Event in Glasgow loomed closer, boosted by the younger generation, disruptive action by unofficial and official pressure groups, and speeches by respected individuals, the urgency for action escalated dramatically. The attendance at COP26 was remarkable in itself, with national delegations from all parts of the planet, senior managers and directors from major global organisations, and commentators with wide media reach all taking away determination to take action. Most nations and organisations now have published programmes with firmly pledged measurable targets; the change is so dramatic that those exhibiting indifference are treated as pariahs. No organisation can now avoid planning for a carbon neutral world!

A major obstacle is the breathtaking scientific illiteracy of politicians, who, even after COP26 are still delaying action. They do not understand that every ton of CO₂ released for millennia is still in the atmosphere, and will remain there until the still unproved Carbon capture and storage becomes a reality. Is it a forlorn hope that COP27 will have a positive outcome?

The aim for carbon neutrality [Note – not zero carbon] will have far reaching consequences, not least in major cost rises at a time when we are still reeling from the aftermath of Covid 19. Without wide realisation, 21st Century lifestyles have become highly dependent upon hydrocarbons and their replacement in heating, transport, electricity generation and everyday materials will not be simple. In most developed countries domestic heating is provided by gas or oil, and they are supported by huge investment in distribution networks. Many sources of renewable power are already in use, and technical improvements have brought down their costs significantly in recent years. Governments talk confidently about electricity as a main replacement, but this means major investment in non-hydrocarbon generation. There is investment in investigating hydrogen as a combustion replacement, but this presents further problems in storage, distribution and safety. Hydrogen is a tiny, explosive molecule that cannot be transported and stored in existing materials. Whichever energy source(s) are chosen their distribution will certainly call for a great deal of capital. Wind and solar power are dependent upon weather and sunlight and greater reliance upon them will require much greater investment in electrical storage. Materials familiar in everyday artifacts such as steel, glass and aluminium use considerable levels of energy and emit huge volumes of carbon dioxide in their synthesis, fabrication into articles and recycling; urgent research is in progress to change these processes. These materials are also heavy and must be replaced, especially in transport. The modern Dreamliner only flies by using a high proportion of components made from reinforced plastics. Modern electric cars will be as much plastic cars as electric cars. Plastics, much maligned for their single use and disposal will inevitably be materials of choice because of their lightness, insulation properties and relatively low processing and recycling costs.

The route to carbon neutrality will be long, hard and expensive. It will depend upon new and improved technologies and great engineering expertise. All organisations will need to build in these factors in their own plans, for their processes and for their supply chains and financing.

The changes brought about by Covid 19, compounded by environmental and financial factors, and enhanced by technical advances have had significant social consequences, many of them unintentional. There has been a long-held fear of overpopulation, but in many countries the fear is now fear of not enough people to undergo the work necessary to maintain economies. Improvements in health provision and lower birth rates in most countries are resulting in huge demographic population shifts. Will there be enough workers and just as importantly, taxpayers to support the ageing population and the demands for welfare, social and health expenditure? Only in Sub-Saharan Africa are there alarm bells ringing where climate change is leaving dependence upon agrarian economies unable to feed an ever- growing population. In many Western economies, especially Japan the falling availabilities of able workers is turning automation and AI from a threat to a necessity. The changing shape of the workforce is evolving, As routine tasks are automated, the workforce is evolving to squeeze out the educated middle. Shortages of key skilled workers is curtailing growth, placing questions on the appropriateness of current education systems. Governments complacently believe that jobs lost will be replaced by new jobs, but these jobs will be higher skilled jobs. Before the Covid pandemic the world of work was undergoing a revolution. Job-for-life and company loyalty were already in the past as the employment market churns rapidly, zero-hours contracts abound and employee benefits are eroded, so that identification with employment is rarely well-defined. The Covid pandemic has seen a significant move towards working from home made possible by the almost universal provision of personal and mass electronic communications. The move towards urbanisation continues, but working from home is transforming workplaces, city centres and workplace design. Over the last two decades, not only the content of work, but its very status have changed irrevocably. Education is still coming to terms with how this changes the very fundamentals of teaching – certainly from secondary level upwards.

These changing times are placing more strain than ever before upon our political systems based almost uniformly on parliaments elected for short terms. Democracy, the stabilising system for centuries is being placed under threat by the growth of populism and the emergence of autocratic governments of both right and left. Libertarian and hedonist populism, encouraged over the last four decades is acting against the concept of society. With populism there is an almost manic promotion of free markets together with rejection of big government. The roots of these social movements lie in a growing dis-satisfaction with governments, especially by an uneducated underprivileged class easily influenced by social media, who, if left disenchanted will become a source of unrest. Trump in USA and Brexit in UK are certainly opportunistic manifestations of this phenomenon, driven as they are, by dis-satisfaction and mistrust. There is a general perception that the democratic political systems that have dominated [mostly] Western society are becoming less ‘adequate’ in dealing with current global and economic problems. But no-one yet knows how democracy will be redefined in a world of instant communications and electronic systems that mock national boundaries. The way forward is one of the great challenges of the early 21st Century.

As this chapter is being written Russian armies are months into a brutal, heartless invasion of Ukraine, whether this is due to NATO’s strategically blind progression east into spheres that Russia considers to be it’s own, or Putin’s maniacally driven belief that Ukraine is a fundamental part of Russia, is of no consequence to the Ukrainian people or Russian war widows. The consequences of this war, for so it is, will be dire. Russia plays a major part in the oil and gas markets and cutting back on this dependence will have a dramatic effect in Russia and the rest of the world. Energy prices are soaring and will hit new peaks, causing severe inflation and significant restrictions in growth, possibly driving the world into recession. The humanitarian impact will be considerable with almost two million Ukrainians leaving their home country, creating a new European diaspora. It is already apparent that Putin has catastrophically miscalculated both Ukraine and the Western response. When, in January 2022 it was apparent that Putin was digging himself [and Russia] deep into a hole, Western diplomacy failed to give him a route out; what he will do when it is clear that he has no way out is horrific