Redistricting: A Manual for Analysts, Practitioners, and Citizens

By Peter A. Morrison and Thomas M. Bryan

This comprehensive manual provides a user-oriented overview of U.S. Census data and demographic methods for redistricting applications. It addresses current issues and concerns accompanying the creation, adjustment, and evaluation of election districts and plans that incorporate them using 2020 Federal Census data. It meets the needs of local governments, citizen redistricting commissions, parties to litigation, and practitioners using Census data for political redistricting. The book provides many examples of technical problems that analysts will encounter when applying these data, supplemented by extensive case studies illustrating these technical issues and how they can be addressed. The book is a source to consult for insight, background, and concrete examples of specific issues and concerns and how to address them. As such this comprehensive reference manual is a "must have" for applied demographers, data scientists, statisticians, citizen redistricting commissions, parties to litigation, practitioners, and any analyst or organization engaged in political redistricting using US decennial census data.

Prepublication quotes:

“As a litigator who advises local governments on redistricting matters, this book is an essential resource.”      John A. Safarli, Partner, Floyd, Pflueger & Ringer, P.S., Seattle, WA

 “A valuable primer for those who will participate in redistricting.  Provides those new to the highly-charged work of drawing districts an understanding of what is at stake, what options exist and the pitfalls to avoid.”       Professor Charles S. Bullock, III, University of Georgia (author of Redistricting:  The Most Political Activity in America)

 “A meticulously researched, well-structured and informative foray into the nuts and bolts of the redistricting process. . .Will aid the bench and bar, public officials, and those elected and appointed citizens who are entrusted with the heavy responsibilities of redistricting from start to finish.

Lives up to its name as a pragmatic guide for those involved in the redistricting process, be they demographic experts, statistical analysts, election law attorneys, litigants, or citizens involved in redistricting commissions.  

A resource for teaching election law and for defending governmental entities ensnared in the redistricting process.

A must for anyone engaged in political redistricting based on the 2020 U.S. Census data.”

Benjamin E. Griffith, Adjunct Professor of Election Law, University of Mississippi, Robert C. Khayat School of Law, and Principal in Griffith Law Firm, Oxford, Mississippi. (Editor and Author of America Votes! Challenges to Modern Election Law and Voting Rights, ABA Section of State & Local Government Law, 4th Ed.,December 2019)

• Language: English
• Publisher: Springer
• Release date: Oct 29, 2019
• ISBN: 9783030158279

Book preview

© Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2019

P. A. Morrison, T. M. BryanRedistricting: A Manual for Analysts, Practitioners, and Citizenshttps://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-15827-9_1

1. Overview and Users’ Guide

Peter A. Morrison¹  and Thomas M. Bryan²

(1)

Peter A. Morrison & Associates, Nantucket, MA, USA

(2)

Bryan GeoDemographics, Midlothian, VA, USA

Abstract

This Manual is a comprehensive reference for persons engaged in drawing and evaluating state and municipal election plans. It identifies and addresses practical questions and concerns and furnishes case studies as illustrations. This brief chapter is intended to help users identify and access specific information in certain chapters ahead as well as in the supplemental online Repository that houses information, tools, and templates at https://​GitHub.​com. There one will find additional updated content about terminology, the conceptual foundations and objectives of redistricting, and assorted tools and templates for accomplishing specific redistricting tasks.

Keywords

RepositoryTemplatesTerminologyToolsGitHub

1.1 Introduction

The Manual has two primary audiences: (1) officials of states and local municipalities responsible for establishing or adjusting the boundaries of existing election districts using 2020 Census data; and (2) public interest groups and lawyers engaged in defending or challenging these election districts and plans in court. For both audiences, it serves as a comprehensive reference source for: staff members, analysts and citizen members of redistricting committees and advisory groups; lawyers who advise on plans under consideration and defend them thereafter, or who challenge a plan on behalf of a plaintiff; academic consultants advising or testifying as expert witnesses; academic programs that train applied demographers; and Census Bureau State Data Centers that furnish local population data for city, county, and regional planning agencies.

The 2020 census poses issues calling for the specialized technical expertise of demographers, political scientists, geographers, and statisticians. Local demographic contexts will prove more varied than ever, with citizenship, age structure, and residential patterns figuring considerably in the way that districts are drawn. This Manual is a repository of practical experience, technical guidance, and illustrative case studies.

1.2 Overview

Chapter 2 : Background and Context explains how political boundaries may scatter or concentrate like-minded voters in ways that disadvantage or empower them. It considers the alternative paths to empowerment whereby local election systems strengthen a minority group’s voice in electing its candidates of choice.

Part I: Data and Methods introduces in Chap. 3 the data that one needs and two options for data development and management: building or buying the necessary data infrastructure. Chapter 4 furnishes two useful demographic accounting models: one, to make an apples to apples comparison of political participation across groups that have different population age structures which obscure a true comparison; the other, to foresee the effects over time of juvenile cohorts maturing into adult voters, thereby enhancing that group’s voting strength from one year to the next.

Part II: Comparing and Evaluating Alternative Plans consists of two chapters that illustrate how to evaluate and defend (or challenge) a proposed district or plan. Chapter 5 identifies salient aspects of districts and plans: (1) how fully they satisfy the intent of established legal standards and precedents; and (2) the ways they would afford minority voters an equal opportunity to participate in the political process and elect representatives of their choice. It shows how to depict a proposed plan and its districts and furnishes a basic template for doing so. Chapter 6 illustrates how to streamline the public process of discussion and choice among alternative approaches to forming districts. Offering initial strategic direction can foster agreement upon an acceptable approach, expediting choice among specific alternatives that embody that approach.

Part III: Illustrative Case Studies consists of seven chapters intended to supplement the preceding chapters with actual examples in specific contexts. Contexts range from one marked by active public engagement in the districting process that led to consensus on a final plan for adoption, to other contexts where a party either defended or challenged a proposed plan. Practitioners can consult these case studies for background and adapt our approaches to parallel circumstances at hand. Chapter 7 is an overview and roadmap to the numerous case studies featured in Chaps. 8 , 9 , 10 , 11 , 12 and 13 .

1.3 How to Use This Manual

A key feature of this Manual is the access it offers to our supplemental online Repository which houses information, tools, and templates at https://​GitHub.​com. This online Repository gives users immediate access to a vast body of supplemental material throughout the Manual. It also makes it possible for the authors to update and amplify this material whenever necessary, and to add new methods, materials, and illustrative case studies.

To begin: Visit https://Github.com/peteramorrison?tab=repositories and navigate to Master Archive. There you can familiarize yourself with the broad categories of supplemental content housed in our online Repository :

1.

Help with Redistricting Terminology. There are concise definitions of important terms you will encounter. Here you can access and print a basic Glossary of Terms (courtesy of the National Conference of State Legislators); copy the definition of a particular term and paste it directly into the text of a document you need to prepare; etc.

2.

Conceptual Foundations and Objectives of Redistricting. There are detailed explanations and illustrations of relevant terminology, concepts, and legal principles that apply to redistricting. These mini tutorials can round out your understanding; or you can insert them into the text of a document you want to prepare (e.g., Alternative Measures of Compactness).

3.

Tools and Templates for Accomplishing Specific Redistricting Tasks. There are tables, figures, maps, statistical measures, accounting models, and other tools suited to specific tasks: designing a redistricting database; accessing and organizing census data; comparing alternative plans; identifying communities of interest; measuring geographic compactness; drawing a majority minority district; updating an existing plan; defending an existing at-large election system; etc.

Appearing throughout this Manual are references pointing you to a specific resource. Each reference has the following standardized form: "GitHub: nn-nnn". The reference directs you to the specific body of material—supplemental technical detail on data, links to online literature, screenshots of web pages, spreadsheets that perform calculation, table shells for presenting data, etc. To access the item(s) online:

1.

Go to: https://​github.​com/​peteramorrison?​tab=​repositories

2.

Navigate to Master Archive

3.

Locate the desired Github item referenced in the Manual (e.g., nn-nnn. You can review this item, copy-and-paste it, download it for use, etc.

© Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2019

P. A. Morrison, T. M. BryanRedistricting: A Manual for Analysts, Practitioners, and Citizenshttps://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-15827-9_2

2. Background and Context

Peter A. Morrison¹  and Thomas M. Bryan²

(1)

Peter A. Morrison & Associates, Nantucket, MA, USA

(2)

Bryan GeoDemographics, Midlothian, VA, USA

Abstract

Local redistricting is becoming a more open and public process, informed through public hearings and other modes of local citizen participation. This overview chapter explains what the process is about and why districts are used. The chapter is intended to establish the requisite breadth of understanding necessary to manage the redistricting process or participate effectively in public deliberations. It provides a primer on governing rules and such key concepts as representational equality and electoral equality; an effective voting majority; common forms of vote dilution (packing and cracking); and types of local election systems.

Keywords

Representational equalityElectoral equalityEffective voting majorityVote dilutionElection system

2.1 Introduction

Local (re)districting is the process of (re)drawing the electoral districts within a municipality.

The 2020 census ushers in this once-a-decade redistricting of congressional and state legislative districts, county governments, city councils, school boards, and other local municipal district boundaries. The process is a politically sensitive and often contentious one, commencing around the time of the decennial census and often enduring for years thereafter. Local government officials in counties, cities, school districts, and other municipalities that elect representatives are tasked with redrawing election district lines based upon fresh new census data. They rely upon demographers and other analysts to do so, in accordance with traditional principles and governing laws that safeguard the right to vote.

Local redistricting has become a more open and public process, informed through public hearings and other modes of local participation. Independent citizen redistricting commissions, which aim to create district boundaries that are not beholden to any political party, are on the rise and generally allow for public input in the process [See GitHub: 02-001]. Technology has brought boundary-drawing within easy reach of any civically-engaged person motivated to devise and formally propose one’s own redistricting plan for public consideration.

2.2 Governing Rules

Two broad principles govern boundary drawing. First are principles of representative government, which are intended to afford both representational equality and electoral equality. The former means that each legislator should represent roughly the same number of persons as every other legislator. The latter means that each citizen’s vote ought to carry equal weight (one person, one vote). In practice, this means that a municipality’s total resident population should be distributed among the districts being formed so that a citizen’s vote in one district carries the same weight as that of a citizen in every other district [See Box 2.1 text]. Second are the legal requirements set forth in Section 2 of the 1965 Voting Rights Act, prohibiting abridgement of the right to vote by diluting the voting strength of a protected group. Section 2 requirements pose questions about whether districts that could be formed under existing demographics circumstances should be established for use.

Box 2.1: Representational and Electoral Imbalance

District lines may disadvantage voters by engendering unequal representation. Representational imbalance among districts arises where the ratio of residents to their elected representatives differs significantly from one district to another. Decennial redistricting is intended to rectify such imbalance by altering district boundaries so as to equalize the total number of residents in each district. Doing so, however, may produce electoral imbalance among the eligible voters in each district. Districts that are equal in total population may have unequal numbers of eligible voters.

For example, a district whose residents are disproportionately noncitizens and children under age 18 may have only half as many voting-age citizens among all its residents as another district has. That electoral imbalance means that a vote will not carry equal weight in each district. Some degree of electoral imbalance is inevitable, since equalizing the number of residents in each district by no means assures that a vote will carry precisely equal weight in each district. This paradox bares an unresolved tension within the law, addressed in a renowned dissenting opinion by Justice Alex Kozinski (access at: GitHub 02-002).

Recent years have